The Status Quo Of Textile Industry: Is The Real Laid-Off Tide Coming?

Resolving overcapacity will be the top five major tasks of structural reform this year, which involves the rational and orderly exit of zombie enterprises.

There are some arguments that the restructuring of state-owned enterprises and the withdrawal of zombie enterprises will trigger the same laid-off trend as in 90s.

Is that the case?

The second laid-off tide is exaggerated.

In the late 90s, the laid-off trend was before the market reform, and the state owned enterprises did not fail.

But after China opened the market in 1978, the competition faced by state-owned enterprises is increasing and profitability is limited.

In Barry Norton's book "China's economy: pformation and growth", we have the following picture. From the chart, we can see that since 1978, the proportion of state-owned industrial enterprises' profits in GDP has been decreasing, and it has reached its lowest level in the past five years in 1995-2000 years.

At that time, how many people were there in the state-owned enterprises? Official statistics showed that in 1995, the number of employed persons in urban state-owned units accounted for 59.14% of the total number of employment, about 113 million people, and what the consequences of the country's more than 100 million people living without local support could be imagined.

In 1995, the number of employed persons in urban state-owned units accounted for 59.14% of the total number of employment, about 113 million.

In order to change the situation, in 1997, the reform of state-owned enterprises, which is mainly based on reducing staff and increasing efficiency, was implemented in an all-round way. The aim is to reduce more than 1/3 state-owned enterprises workers in 4 years in order to improve the efficiency of state-owned enterprises.

According to official statistics, by the end of 1999, the total number of laid-off workers has reached 24 million 400 thousand, accounting for 20.7% of the total number of employees in state-owned enterprises at that time. Such a large-scale phenomenon of laid-off workers is known as the "laid-off tide".

However, the number of workers who may be laid off today is far from large-scale.

Statistics show that the proportion of employed persons in urban state-owned units has dropped to 16.61% in 2013, about 63 million 650 thousand.

But not all state-owned enterprises are facing withdrawing from the market or restructuring. For example, monopolistic state-owned enterprises such as PetroChina, Sinopec and telecom three giants are all state-owned enterprises with unlimited scenery.

And aluminum products and so on.

Therefore, the area and industry of the attrition are relatively concentrated, but will be reduced, but it will not achieve the "laid-off tide".

And the purpose of this reduction is not to reduce costs, but to let some enterprises that exist in name only withdraw from the market, and no longer rely on government assistance to survive.

You know, in the past, there was no reason why the zombie enterprises were not harnessing. The local government was worried that once the enterprise went bankrupt, it would lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, so that officials would have to maintain the illusion of economic prosperity at any cost at all costs.

But this has hurt the real economy, and it also implies a considerable degree of financial risk.

As far as the textile industry is concerned, there is no large-scale collapse.

Through data analysis, in 2015 1-8, the added value of the textile industry increased by 7.3% compared with the same period last year, and the total profit increased by 7.5% over the same period last year. The investment in fixed assets was 369 billion 400 million yuan, an increase of 13% over the same period last year. The added value of textile and clothing industry increased by 4.9% over the same period last year, and the investment in fixed assets was 281 billion 700 million yuan, up 26.4% over the same period last year.

In terms of production and sales volume, 1-8 months of yarn production totaled 25 million 600 thousand tons, an increase of 4.3% over the same period last year; the total output of cloth was 4 million 540 thousand tons, an increase of 3.4% over the same period last year; the output of silk and interwoven woven fabrics increased by 397 million 490 thousand tons, up 0.4% over the same period last year; the retail sales of textile and apparel products increased by 825 billion 500 million yuan, up 10.5% over the same period, and maintained a certain degree of growth.

And an article that has been widely circulated online is "170 million of the working population."

Now the collapse of the tide, tens of millions of people will come home early to celebrate the new year, exaggerating the impact of the textile and clothing industry on the national employment market.

According to the sixth census data, there are about 9 million 300 thousand people employed in the textile industry.

There are about 14 million 800 thousand employees in the footwear and hat manufacturing industry, while the total number of two employees is less than 25 million.

In fact, at the end of 2014, the total employment of the second industry was 230 million.

The employment market is very optimistic.

In 90s, although a large number of people lost their jobs, the state-owned enterprises occupied the labor resources in the past. Instead, many unemployed people entered the industries and jobs that were originally lacking in manpower.

This adjustment has been suggested that the current industry development is relatively perfect, which may not form a new economic growth point, and therefore can not provide new jobs.

However, this may not be the case.

China's human resources market information monitoring center monitors the supply and demand of labor market in some cities in China (101 cities), one of which is the rate of seeking people, and the algorithm of seeking rate is very simple, that is, the number of effective demand is higher than that of effective job seekers. When the demand rate is greater than 1, labor demand is greater than supply. When less than 1, labor demand is less than supply.

Although simple, this index reflects not only the supply and demand of labor market, but also the important index reflecting the prosperity of the whole economy.

Since the first quarter of 2002, the rate of seeking employment in the domestic labor market has been on the rise. Since 2011, the rate of seeking help has basically stabilized above 1, or even more than 1.1.

This shows that the current labor market is in a state where demand exceeds supply.

At present, the voice in the media is jumbled and contradictory.

On the one hand, it is reported that aging and labor costs are rising. On the one hand, business failures and unemployment are being hyped, but labor costs rising, mass unemployment and low inflation can not happen at the same time.

In fact, with the current population structure and economic structure in China, as long as there is no serious stall in the economy, large-scale unemployment will not emerge, and more frictional and structural unemployment risks.

At present, most occupations are still in short supply, and the textile industry is on the list.

Moreover, the monitoring of supply and demand information in the labor market by the Ministry of human resources and social finds that in the three industry, the textile industry in the second industry has declined in recent years, but it has not reached the level of "laid-off tide".

With the rise of the third industry, the demand for labor has become the largest.

Taking the latest data as an example, the demand for labor in most industries in the third cities accounts for more than 70%, while in large cities like Shanghai, the demand for the third industry is as high as 90%.

"Generally speaking, China's market employment has a strong absorptive capacity and many forms of employment. From the perspective of industrial structure in 2013, the third industry provides more channels of employment, and the development of various new formats has also stimulated employment."

Zheng Dongliang, director of the Institute of labor science of the Ministry of social affairs, said.

Editor's note: from the current situation, there is still a shortage of labor in the textile industry, and the risk of "laid-off tide" is not obvious.

However, with the gradual improvement of the level of intelligence and automation in textile industry, the dependence on manpower will gradually decrease. Especially after the universal replacement of machines, the real laid-off tide will probably come.