Vietnam Is The Largest Importer Of Cotton

This year, the decline in global cotton stocks is mainly due to a significant decline in cotton production, rather than an increase in consumption.

In 2015/16, the world's cotton production is projected to be 22 million 500 thousand tons, down 14% from the same period last year, a decrease of 5 million 400 thousand tons over the historical high of 2011/12.

In 2015/16, the area of cotton planting worldwide decreased by 9% to 31 million 100 thousand hectares.

Under the influence of weather and insect pests, the average cotton yield per unit area of the world decreased by 6%, to 723 kg / ha.

In the top ten cotton producing countries, the output of China, the United States and Pakistan decreased significantly, and China's output decreased by 20%, to 5 million 200 thousand tons. The US output decreased by 21%, to 2 million 800 thousand tons, and Pakistan production decreased by 30% to 1 million 600 thousand tons.

India's output dropped by 5% to 6 million 200 thousand tons.

The global cotton production and demand forecast released by the international cotton advisory board (ICAC) in February concluded that the decline in chemical fiber prices reduced the market share of cotton.

When cotton prices fell at the beginning of 2014/15,

The price difference between the A index and the price of Chinese chemical fiber has narrowed sharply, which has greatly increased the competitiveness of cotton.

However, this trend lasted for only a few months, and the price of chemical fiber continued to decline, and cotton prices began to stabilize.

2015/16,

and

The price difference continued to widen, and the price of chemical fiber fell from 52 cents in August 2015 to 43 cents in January 2016, and the average price in the first half of 2015/16 was 48 cents.

Over the same period, the average value of the A index was 70 cents, the highest 74 cents, the lowest 66 cents.

The falling prices of chemical fibers have reduced the market share of cotton, especially in China, where chemical fibers have always prevailed in recent years.

In 2015/16, cotton consumption in China is expected to be 7 million 100 thousand tons, down 5% from the same period last year, and has decreased for sixth consecutive years.

Nevertheless, China is still the world's largest cotton consumer.

In 2015/16, cotton consumption in the world was 24 million 100 thousand tons, a decrease of 1% over the same period last year.

Due to the demand and increase of cotton yarn in China and the domestic market, consumption in India is getting closer to China. In the past three years, India's cotton consumption has increased by 27%, and 2015/16 is expected to reach 5 million 500 thousand tons, an increase of 2% over the same period.

Consumption in Pakistan is expected to be 2 million 200 thousand tons, down 12% from the same period last year, while consumption in Turkey is stable at 1 million 500 thousand tons, while consumption in Vietnam and Bangladesh is expected to grow 22% and 13% respectively, reaching 1 million 100 thousand tons.

China's cotton imports in 2015/16 are expected to decline by 40% to 1 million 80 thousand tons due to reduced domestic cotton consumption and falling cotton prices.

However, if the import rhythm remains stable, Vietnam may replace China as the world's largest cotton importer.

In the first four months of 2015/16, Vietnam imported 327 thousand tons of cotton, while China imported only 247 thousand tons.

In 2015/16, cotton imports in Vietnam are expected to reach 1 million 100 thousand tons, up 17% over the same period last year, and Bangladesh imports are expected to be 1 million 80 thousand yuan, an increase of 12% over the same period last year.

Because of low production costs, especially low labour costs, cotton consumption in Vietnam and Bangladesh is steadily increasing.

However, unlike the top three consuming countries, Vietnam and Bangladesh do not produce cotton very much, and they must rely heavily on imports to meet domestic demand.