The Whole World Is Afraid Of Why The Renminbi Depreciates.

From Jose Canseco, a meticulous Japanese central bank official, to a former professional baseball batter, it seems that everyone is worried about the depreciation of the renminbi.

It is feared that the depreciation of the renminbi will stimulate other export dependent countries to devalue their currencies in order to maintain competitiveness, thereby triggering a global currency war.

At the same time, ordinary Chinese people's Congress will scramble to pfer funds to the outside world, and Chinese enterprises will be struggling to repay loans borrowed in dollars.

If the RMB exchange rate really out of control diving, it is likely to cause confusion in China's entire opaque financial system.

Such worries are overstated.

The real impact of the depreciation of the renminbi is likely to be more subtle and limited in nature.

At the most basic level, a currency devaluation will raise the price of imported products and reduce the prices of export products.

As imports become more expensive, demand and consumption should drop, and exports will be boosted.

For decades, China has used this model to promote economic prosperity.

Most other countries, including the United States, used to tend to maintain monetary strength to improve their living standards relative to the rest of the world.

China also expressed the hope that the renminbi will remain stable, and every month it has been buying huge amounts of Renminbi to support its exchange rate.

It seems that there are two dangers: first, the downward pressure on the market has made this effort fail; second, China has decided to let the renminbi depreciate to revive its export oriented manufacturing industry.

But how bad will it actually be? Chinese companies are rapidly taking action to repay or restructure US dollar loans.

As for consumers, it is important to bear in mind that relatively large countries such as China have a smaller proportion of trade than small countries.

Therefore, Chinese consumers are more unaffected by rising prices of imported products.

Imports account for only about 1/5 of China's gross domestic product (GDP).

)

Moreover, not all products imported from countries are equally sensitive to prices.

Machinery, metals, minerals and chemicals account for about 60% of China's imports.

Coupled with watches and medical equipment and other precision equipment, precious metals, pport products and rubber products, the proportion rose to nearly 90%.

Prices will affect, but will not ultimately determine the demand for most of these products.

China's commodity imports are likely to continue to slide, but more because of overcapacity caused by surging investment after the global financial crisis in 2008, rather than any factor related to the renminbi.

Before worrying about China's doing or not doing anything about its own exchange rate, other countries should take care of their domestic affairs.

After 2008, the global economy was revived by the Chinese building boom that pushed up commodity prices and investment.

In view of the fact that China's economic slowdown has been showing for at least a year, enterprises are best to start growth.

Slow down, and moderate depreciation of the renminbi "new normal" ready.

Japan has let the Japanese yen depreciate sharply against the US dollar, so it is absurd for a country like Japan to suggest that China should enforce tough capital controls to prevent the RMB from falling.

If the market thinks that the RMB is overvalued, it should allow it to find the fair value of the renminbi.

That will not be the end of the world.

China's huge export scale means that China does have a huge influence on the global market.

But China's exports are still dominated by electronic products and clothing. If it is classified as base metal processing and various manufacturing industries, it will account for nearly 70% of China's total exports.

Although China claims to move along the value chain, these industries are still

Low skilled industries.

The low wage countries that will feel the most pain - Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia - represent only a relatively limited subset of the global economy.

Although China has recently increased its share of global clothing exports, these countries have been damaged, but some of the largest in the world.

There's nothing to worry about.

The latter no longer produces the basic manufacturing products that dominate China's exports, at least no longer large-scale production.

For example, in December of last year, the price of China's export steel was charged at $459 per ton, but the price of imported steel was 1023 dollars per ton.

Why is there such a difference? China exports low quality steel, but imports a higher value of special steel.

Japan, the United States and South Korea dominate the latter.

The devaluation of the renminbi will not necessarily lead to global deflation.

Core price deflation in the areas of energy, commodities and food is more related to productivity growth and over investment outside China, rather than to the RMB exchange rate policy.

If the devaluation of the US dollar after the 2008 crisis and the recent devaluation of the yen did not result in deflation across the globe, there is no reason to think that the current devaluation of the renminbi will lead to deflation.