Foreign Trade Data Diving Is Difficult To Achieve Fundamental Reversing

Generally speaking, the overall poor demand situation at home and abroad is the fundamental reason for the diving of foreign trade data. The implementation of many foreign trade related policies last year is difficult to achieve a fundamental reversal.

In February 15th, the General Administration of Customs announced the import and export situation of China's foreign trade in January 2016. Data show that in January, China's imports and exports declined, and the total value reached a new low since March 2015.

According to customs statistics, in January 2016, the total value of China's imports and exports was 1 trillion and 880 billion yuan 1, down 9.8% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports of 1 trillion and 140 billion yuan, down 6.6%; imports 737 billion 540 million yuan, down 14.4%; trade surplus of 406 billion 200 million yuan, 12.2% expansion.

"The prospects for foreign trade are worrying.

Exports of commodities are falling again and again, and domestic demand recovery is not yet stable.

Domestic and foreign demand is weak at the same time, and growth will be more pressure in the next few months.

Qu Hongbin, chief economist and managing director of HSBC's Greater China, said the data were weaker than expected and export growth was recorded at -11.2%, the lowest since last March.

In the light of a gloomy foreign trade data, the export outlook will continue to improve in the second half of the year.

As one of the main forces of China's exports, both the "sophisticated" and a large number of labor-intensive products, the trend of export of electromechanical products reflects the most representative aspect of China's current foreign trade situation, which is the decline in the export volume of electromechanical products, which occupies half of the total value of exports. This will cast a deeper shadow on the export prospects.

Customs data show that exports of traditional labor-intensive products such as mechanical and electrical products, textiles and garments have declined.

In January, China's mechanical and electrical products exported 632 billion 750 million yuan, down 6.8%, accounting for 55.3% of the total export value.

In the view of Bai Ming, the "diving" of import and export data in January this year shows that China's foreign trade is facing the complex situation of the domestic economic downturn and the weakening of international demand.

"Domestic demand weakened and imports declined. Internationally, the United States showed poor data in the fourth quarter of last year, and Japan's economic situation was not ideal. Europe was faced with a shadow of terrorism and European debt crisis. In hopes of forwarding hope to emerging economies, Brazil and Russia also had relatively poor answers."

Bai Ming told reporters, "overall, the situation facing domestic enterprises is that" comfortable space is very small ". We need to struggle to survive and strive for survival.

"Many foreign enterprises continue to" run away "and take away orders. The" going out "strategy implemented by Chinese enterprises has been replaced by similar enterprises abroad.

Bai Ming said, "so we should consider the cooperation on the basis of increment. Let's make big cakes and eat big cakes instead of competing with you."

To completely reverse the decline, we must rely on reform, rely on upgrading the industrial level, and wait for the emergence of new hot spots in the international market.

Ren Zeping, chief macroeconomic analyst of Guotai Junan, believes that the negative impact of the decline in exports is due to the global economic downturn. It also shows that the devaluation of the RMB has no obvious effect on export promotion.

However, the trade surplus will continue to exceed the market expectations, which will help the central bank maintain stability in the RMB exchange rate.

"January foreign trade data show that the current export pressure is relatively large, and now is the continuation of pressure in 2015, especially in the first half of this year, will bear 1 to 2 quarters."

Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research department of the Ministry of Commerce, told the daily economic news reporter that "it is likely that the export will be improved in the second half of the year."

Customs data show that in January 2016, China's imports and exports to the major markets of the European Union, the United States, ASEAN and Japan all declined, with a decrease of 9.9%, 9.9%, 10.8% and 6% respectively.

External demand has been weak for many years, and the pressure accumulated since 2015 is still not heavy.

Last year's government work report set the target of foreign trade growth by about 6% in the whole year, but since January last year, the import and export data both dropped sharply, and after a whole year, the foreign trade has never been out of the doldrums.

Customs data show that in 2015, the total value of China's trade in goods imports and exports was 24 trillion and 590 billion yuan, down 7% from 2014, far below the target set at the end of last year.

Among them, exports were 14 trillion and 140 billion yuan, down 1.8%; imports 10 trillion and 450 billion yuan, down 13.2%.