Guo Shiliang Talks About The Biggest Premise Of Guiding Capital Into Market

The latest week has been a key point in the frequent occurrence of major events in China's capital market.

Liu Shiyu, who succeeded Xiao Gang as chairman of the SFC, has undoubtedly become a heavy concern in the recent market.

To this day, although Liu Shiyu's replacement of Xiaogang is not long, there are many important news related to the market.

Recently, according to Bloomberg's anonymous insider, Liu Shiyu commented on his first speech to the SFC officials after he took office, saying that the current tasks include supervising the market, strictly investigating and manipulating the stock market and guiding the capital to enter the market.

In this regard, if the news is true, this will become Liu Shiyu's first statement after assuming office.

However, for this statement, the regulation of the market and the thorough manipulation of stock market are common.

However, talking about guiding the capital into the market, it can easily lead to the deep thinking of the market.

In fact, the A share market is still dominated by capital push.

In short, it is inseparable from the law of "becoming a capital and losing money".

In the 14 and 15 years, the A share market has been on the ups and downs.

However, the huge fluctuation of the market was still inseparable from the comprehensive activation of the highly leveraged tools, which triggered the upsurge of the whole people's stock speculation.

Today, with the completion of several rounds of "deleveraging" and "de foaming" in the stock market, the potential leveraged tools in the market have been well cleaned up, and the potential systemic risks have been released to a certain extent.

So, after the stock market went through the process of "deleveraging" and "defrothing", how to guide the capital into the market has become a hot topic.

In fact, after the Spring Festival holiday this year, the news of the social security fund has accelerated.

Specifically, in recent days, the national social security fund has allocated accounts of a total of about 10 billion yuan to a number of domestic authorized managers to purchase shares in the two tier market.

At the same time, the funds have been basically accounted for, or there are some signs of capital entering the market.

However, according to past data, in terms of this fund, it is actually a regular investment, but compared with the past time, the social security fund's timing has been advanced earlier this year.

It can be seen that the social security fund has accelerated the entry into the market, and has also recognized the medium and long-term investment value of the current market to some extent.

However, for the social security fund with a scale of more than one trillion yuan, the market moves of tens of billions of dollars after the holiday can not really affect the market.

However, it is worth mentioning that, according to the previous plan, the probability of the pension fund entering the market is relatively large this year, and the accelerated pace of its entry into the market has actually increased the market to some extent.

The influx of expectations.

According to authoritative data at the end of 2014, the accumulated balance of China's enterprise endowment insurance fund is 30626 billion yuan, and the accumulated balance of the basic old-age insurance fund for urban and rural residents is 384 billion 500 million yuan, while the two accumulated balance is nearly 3 trillion and 500 billion.

According to the provisions of the "basic endowment insurance fund investment management measures", the proportion of pension funds investing in stocks, equity funds, mixed funds and stock pension products shall not be higher than 30% of the net assets of the pension fund.

It is speculated that if the pension fund can enter the market, the potential fund size of the A share market in the future will not be underestimated.

However, while we have relatively optimistic expectations, the market seems to exaggerate the scale of the social security funds and pension funds entering the market.

In fact, according to the market entry of insurance funds in the past, in fact, it is not too optimistic.

Among them, according to the analysis of the proportion of equity assets invested by insurance funds in the past, it has been in a state of exhaustion for a long time.

As for the new regulations in recent years, although the proportion of the upper limit of equity assets invested by insurance funds has been raised, the actual investment is still larger than the investment ceiling stipulated in the regulations.

Therefore, referring to the actual investment of insurance funds to equity assets, the actual investment ratio of the pension funds that will be related to the fate of ordinary people's lives and property will not be blindly optimistic.

Perhaps, for such long-term capital market, its impact on market psychology is far greater than the actual impact.

It should be noted that investment in equity assets is not entirely limited to stock investment.

However, in practice, the investment scope of equity assets is relatively wide, which is more consistent with the diversification and diversification of such long-term funds, and has reached the purpose of diversification investment risk.

As a result, the proportion of such long-term funds to the real market may be even lower.

In fact, for the former, reactivating stock market leverage funds, perhaps for more brokerage firms, can only be done by loosening up the two financial businesses or increasing the conversion rate.

However, for the A share market, which has gone through the spectacular "deleveraging" and "de foaming", the probability of re activating the stock market leverage funds, especially the off site leveraged funds, has been very low.

As for the venue financing, because the margin ratio increased to 100% and other new regulations, the subsequent recovery of its financing business will not be too significant.

For the latter, with the help of

Reform will enhance the utilization ratio of funds and achieve the purpose of guiding capital into the market.

Perhaps a more rapid and effective way is to adopt the trading system of "T+0" in stock market.

However, for the current A share market, it is basically in a state of serious illness.

In this regard, although the "T+0" trading system can better enhance the activity of the stock market and raise the effective utilization rate of funds, it may again promote the risk of high speculation in the stock market.

For the time being, it is necessary to think twice before making this move.

The author believes that guiding capital into the market is a strategic task, and it will also be one of the key tasks of President Liu Shiyu.

However, for the current A share market, the premise of guiding capital into the market is nothing more than remodeling.

A healthy and healthy value investment atmosphere and a substantial increase in the proportion of institutional investors in order to achieve long-term market stability.

But it is not enough to do so.

Obviously, for the special speculative environment in the A share market, while enhancing the proportion of institutional investors, we also need to strengthen the self-discipline behavior of institutional investors in China, so as to avoid the wrong guidance of institutional investors.

Finally, more importantly, we need to further strengthen the legal system construction of our capital market, and accelerate the revision and improvement of the securities law, so as to create a good rule of law environment for the market.

It is true that a mature and stable market environment can not be completed overnight.

At the same time, we need to fully test the wisdom of new managers and the level of municipal governance.