Cotton Enterprises Sell Anxious Cotton Mills To Wait And See

The spot market still has the trend of changing prices in the near future, while the difference between the futures price and the current price is larger.

Since no long staple cotton is out of stock, and the price of imported Pima cotton is about 27000 yuan / ton, which is much higher than that of domestic long staple cotton, it has certain support for domestic long staple cotton. However, the decline of long staple cotton will form a certain drop-down effect after the down of fine staple cotton.

Last week (22-26 February)

Sales have been more than 5 months, Xinjiang subsidies have been issued, the market began to pay attention to the new year's cotton policy, normalization of the turn out time window is approaching, most of the goods hope to catch up before the coming out of the stock, after the price quotas have been reduced, the warehouse receipt registration cost down synchronously, futures empty to take the opportunity to force, Zheng cotton fell, January contract breaking ten thousand.

Facing the declining market, the cotton mill tried to compress cotton yarn and cotton stocks, enter the wait and see, and reduce procurement.

Domestic and foreign futures hit a new low.

Last Friday (February 26th), the national cotton price B index of 12206 yuan / ton, weekly fell 111 yuan / ton, compared with Zheng cotton futures CF1605 contract, spot premium 1536 yuan / ton, week expanded 444 yuan / ton.

Futures.

The outer disk breaks down and the round window draws near.

On the other hand, the company took the lead in the short term, and made a big drop in the price of Zheng cotton. It started to break down in 1701 yuan, 1701 yuan on Friday, closed at 9880 yuan / ton, and the week fell 285 yuan / ton. The turnover reached 247676 hands, an increase of 105902 hands, an increase of 74.7%, a 172796 increase in positions, an increase of 51586 hands, an increase of 42.6%, 1605 on Friday, a gain of 42.6% yuan / ton, and a weekly drop of RMB yuan / ton.

Contract 1609 closed at 10080 yuan / ton on Friday, and fell 380 yuan / ton weekly. The turnover reached 1137026 hands, an increase of 578698 hands, an increase of 103.6%, 519344 positions, 69908 increase, 15.6% increase, and a sharp increase in turnover and position, reflecting the fierce competition in the market.

As of February 26th closing, the top 20 seats, more than 284420 hands, an increase of 4286 hands over the previous week, empty single 340563 hands, 29467 more than the previous week, the empty side still prevailed, 56143 hands empty, 25181 more than the previous week, the air force continues to increase.

Buying 13000 sets of holding positions, increasing 840 hands and selling 52084 insurance policies, 12493 more than the previous week, although spot futures relative to futures discount, but in the downward trend, the holders of spot goods can still make use of futures earnings to make up for spot losses, and rolling short is relatively safer.

As of February 26th, 923 registered warehouse receipts, 114 weekly reductions, 387 effective forecasts, 29 weekly increase, warehouse receipt registration for 2 consecutive weeks increased, spot sales difficulties, high level florescence spot water difference, a large part of the resurgence, small impurities, high-grade cotton through registered warehouse receipts sales.

As of February 18, 2016, the United States signed a total net signing of 2015/16 cotton production volume of 1 million 462 thousand tons, with a contract rate of 73%, far below the average of 5 years, 94%, China's 440 thousand tons reduction compared to the previous year, and 85.4% reduction. In addition to a small increase in Mexico and Bangladesh in the 10 countries, the other 8 countries were significantly reduced, and China's reduction and reduction were the first.

Export data is not good, the surrounding agricultural products are down, China is coming out, the US market has broken down and adjusted to a new low, the main contract in May closed at 57.53 cents / pound, and fell 201 points on Friday. The latter China's coming out will have great pressure on the US disk, and the center of gravity of the shock box is expected to move to 55-65 cents / pound interval.

On the spot.

Prices dropped, cotton mills waited and watched, a few cotton mills had not started yet, and spot trading was scarce.

Impatient, anxious to rush out of stock before coming out of the stock market, they have lowered their quotations, futures have plummeted, and thousands of contracts have been broken down in the long term. The mills have reduced the price loss to tighten up their stocks, reduced purchases, and the market entry has become more and more difficult to sell.

Market quotation: the price of mainland double 29B is 12800-13100 yuan / ton, double 28B 12600-12700 yuan / ton, double 28C 12400-12500 yuan / ton.

The price of real estate cotton is 11500-13000 yuan / ton, India 12700-12900 yuan / ton, Wu cotton 12600-12800 yuan / ton, American cotton 13500-14200 yuan / ton, Australia cotton SM 1-5/3214800-15200 yuan /.

The spot market still has the trend of changing prices in the near future, while the difference between the futures price and the current price is larger.

On the one hand, as long as the staple cotton is not out of long staple cotton, and the price of imported Pima cotton is about 27000 yuan / ton, which is much higher than that of domestic long staple cotton, it has certain support for domestic long staple cotton. However, the decline of long staple cotton will form a certain dropdown effect after falling down.

Acquisition of new cotton.

The acquisition and processing of new cotton in China basically ended. As of February 26th, the number of new cotton processing in Xinjiang was still 3 million 500 thousand tons, and 1095 of the public inspection enterprises in the country were flat, with the number of public inspection being 3 million 510 thousand tons, and the weekly increase of only 6 thousand tons.

Xinjiang's subsidy has been paid in full, with a total subsidy of 14 billion 400 million, a discount of 4000 yuan per ton of lint, and no subsidy from most provinces in the mainland.

Cotton distribution.

The cotton yarn market has improved after the Spring Festival, and the number of Xinjiang's Storehouses increased significantly during the Spring Festival. The resources of the Xinjiang cotton in the inland bank were abundant. After the quota was issued, the import cotton resources also increased. The prices of cotton in India, West Africa and Central Asia were close to that of the national cotton. The regiment also lowered the quotations, and increased the optional cotton resources and varieties, which is conducive to stable cotton blending and quality.

Operation suggestion.

Cotton prices are at a low point in history. According to the principle of rotation, the price will not be suppressed, but only a blow to bull confidence. After the implementation, the profits will be much more profitable. Under the current price, the global planting area will continue to decrease this year, and there will be more opportunistic layout.