Global Cotton Supply Is Still Loose. Where Is The Bottom Of The Market?

Yesterday, by the time of the US market and the expected time of departure, Zheng cotton fell 235 points in May, a decrease of 2.12%, the lowest drop to 10845 yuan / ton, a new low since 2009, a 175 point drop in September, a 9980 yuan contract in January, a decrease of 410 and 205 points in May and September respectively, and a narrowing of 5-9 price differentials to 535 yuan before the holiday, narrowing more than 300 points before the holidays.

at present

The contracts are in deep discount, especially in the far 1701 contract price, which is already lower than the extremely rare ten thousand yuan pass. This also reflects that the market is extremely unoptimistic about cotton prices in the future.

Looking back at history, it was still in September 2001, -2002, August, that is, 2001/02, less than 10 thousand. This year is the 71.8% of the inventory consumption ratio. At that time, the stock consumption ratio continued to decline for three years.

Global cotton supply is still loose.

In February, USDA's monthly supply and demand report showed that global output dropped slightly from 37 thousand tons to 222 million 74 thousand tons, of which India reduced 44 thousand tons to 6 million 53 thousand tons, but still maintained the status of the first cotton producing country in the world. The volume of consumption dropped by 292 thousand tons to 24 million 437 thousand and 800 tons, and the rate of reduction was relatively large. Among them, consumption in China and India was reduced by 109 thousand tons respectively, and the end of stock increased by 266 thousand tons to 22 million 661 thousand tons.

In addition, China's output and ending stocks remained on the forecast in January, consumption dropped by 109 thousand tons and imports fell by 109 thousand tons, all imports decreased from consumption, and imports from Pakistan and India were reduced by 8.7/2.2 million tons. The United States, India and Brazil respectively lowered exports 10.9, 2.2 and 22 thousand tons, all of which were reduced by a different margin. The rest of the countries did not change significantly in various projects, and the global cotton supply in the new year is still loose.

Domestic sticky cotton price difference maintained upside down

In 2014, cotton was temporarily closed, and the price of cotton was restored to market.

The proportion of more than 7-15 days of Spring Festival holiday has increased over the past 15 days, and the phenomenon of "early leave and delayed start" is common.

Second, the sale situation was faster than last year, and most of the sales were significantly reduced compared with last year because of the clear policy.

In addition, these two years before the Spring Festival every year

Generally reduce inventory, last year after the Spring Festival textile enterprises to increase procurement efforts, which led to short-term spot rose 300-500 yuan, futures also followed the emergence of a rising market, and this year most of the textile enterprises have been watching, there is no centralized replenishment of the stock market phenomenon, are maintained with the purchase.

It is understood that the domestic spot lint began to decline in early January, until the Spring Festival, the recent temporary stability. After the Lantern Festival, the price of lint quotes and textile enterprises started to increase, and the purchasing volume of textile enterprises did not increase significantly. It still maintained a low inventory. The purchase price of Shandong was 2.98 yuan per Jin, which was very small. Almost no turnover was made. The price of yarn was maintained before the festival, and the price of the country's 32S was 19200 yuan, while the chemical fiber and viscose increased by 100-320 yuan respectively. The price was 6360 yuan, 13100 yuan, respectively, and the sticky cotton price difference was 850, maintaining the upside down.

China's cotton imports in January dropped by 65 thousand and 200 tons to 96 thousand tons, a decrease of about 40.44%, an annual total of 462 thousand tons, a decrease of 261 thousand and 100 tons compared to the same period. In addition, the import yarn of India 32S is 19415 yuan, and the domestic 32S monthly index is 19185 yuan.

It has always been a loss, and the decline in yarn imports is also a matter of course. In January, import yarn decreased by 25.85% over the same period last year, to 161 thousand and 500 tons, with an annual import volume of 899 thousand and 300 tons of cotton yarn, down 3.85% from the same period last year.

Cotton throwing storage expectations near

Since November last year, cotton throwing and storage rumors have been ongoing, and the prediction of dumping and storage has been basically achieved. The time may be more suitable in April. This will not affect the processing and sale of new cotton, nor will it cause pressure on the lint clearing at the end of the year. Secondly, most people still believe that the internal and external indexes are combined. However, due to some separation of internal and external trends, they do not follow the internal and external indexes. In addition, the new cotton will be turned into some new cotton in Xinjiang after dumping.

Between last year's sale, the quality of reserve cotton, and the restrictions on re inspection, it would be possible to sell and sell.

At present, there are plenty of warehouse receipts in the near future, and in anticipation of throwing stores, the ginning factory has tightened its price cut shipments, or has continued to decline in recent months. However, the Wan Yuan integer pass still has strong psychological support for the main force of the month. It is expected that with the implementation of the policy of low price dumping and storage, the pressure will first be put in place in the near future, and then it will lead to a further decline in the distant month and spot. The author suggests that the blank list continue to hold, focusing on the return of 5-9 spreads.