Cotton Storage Is Expected To Be Near The Bottom Of The Market.

In recent years, the domestic commodity market generally maintained a weak downward trend. The CRB index maintained a downward trend. It fell 1.35% yesterday, and the US overnight market fell 05 cents or 0.59, or 1.02%. It fell for fourth consecutive days, closing 57.41 cents / pound, hitting 57.26 contract lows in the trading, recorded a new low in the past six years, and increased speculation in the market.

Yesterday, by the time of the US market and the expected time of departure, Zheng cotton fell 235 points in May, a decrease of 2.12%, the lowest drop to 10845 yuan / ton, a new low since 2009, a 175 point drop in September, a 9980 yuan contract in January, a decrease of 410 and 205 points in May and September respectively, and a narrowing of 5-9 price differentials to 535 yuan before the holiday, narrowing more than 300 points before the holidays.

At present, all the contracts of Zheng cotton are in deep discount, especially in the far 1701 contract price, which has been lower than the extremely rare ten thousand yuan pass. This also reflects the market for the future.

It is very bad.

Looking back at history, it was still in September 2001, -2002, August, that is, 2001/02, less than 10 thousand. This year is the 71.8% of the inventory consumption ratio. At that time, the stock consumption ratio continued to decline for three years.

Since November last year, rumors of cotton throwing and storage have been ongoing. At present, the prediction of dumping and storage has basically been reached. The time may be more suitable in April, so that it will not affect.

Processing and sales will not cause pressure on the lint clearing at the end of the year. Secondly, most people still believe that the internal and external indexes are combined. However, due to some separation of internal and external trends, they do not follow the internal and external indexes. In addition, the new cotton will be turned into some new cotton in Xinjiang after dumping.

At present, there are plenty of warehouse receipts in the month, and in anticipation of the dumping.

Tighten the price of shipments, or in recent months or downtrend, but the 10000 yuan integer pass still has strong psychological support for the main force in the far months. It is expected that with the implementation of the policy of low price dumping and storage, the pressure will first come down in recent months, and then lead to further decline in the coming months and spot prices. The author suggests that we should continue to hold the market and focus on the return of the 5-9 spreads.