PTA Maintenance Device Restart Terminal Demand Slow Recovery

In March, Asian PX's ACP negotiations were finalized at $725 / ton, a rise of 15 US dollars / ton in January, indicating a relative balance between supply and demand of PX in Asia. At present, the restart of the 1 million 600 thousand ton PX device in CICC has brought some pressure to the short-term PX market.

However, from 4 to June, 3 million 700 thousand tons of PX installations in Asia were planned to be overhauled. The supply of PX will gradually tighten later, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the cash flow will remain at a relative high level of over 110 US dollars / ton.

During the Spring Festival, polyester enterprises in China carried out centralized overhaul operations of over 8 million tons of capacity. At present, after the commencement of the festival, the start-up load of polyester has gradually increased.

As of last weekend, polyester link inventory pressure was larger, overall in more than 20 days, cash flow loss margin in the vicinity of 200 yuan / ton, the overall business situation is worse than the same period last year.

But taking into account the strength of polyester repair during the Spring Festival, the two quarter of polyester demand season can still be worth looking forward to.

Recently, Zhuhai BP, Hengli Petrochemical 1 and

The accumulative 5 million 600 thousand ton unit 4 has been restarted in succession. The 350 thousand tonnes of the Yizheng petrochemical plant is ready to restart, and the 1 million 200 thousand tonnes of the Helen petrochemical unit is planned to be lifted to full load. The new 2 million 200 thousand ton unit of the hHB Petrochemical Company is planned to be put into operation at the end of March without the background of a new device for parking and maintenance.

The supply is gradually increasing, which amplifies the strong demand of the PX side and leads to a further deterioration of the PTA cash flow.

But the PTA cash flow in the early stage is below the average social production cost of 450 yuan / ton.

The main contract of PTA futures has rebounded from the low of 4200 yuan / ton in January 18th to 4486 yuan / ton in February 23rd, and the rebound rate was 6.8%. The overall performance of the 1605 contract was obviously weaker than that of other chemicals.

In March 1st, the central bank lowered the market sentiment and improved PTA futures.

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In mid February, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other major oil producing countries reached an agreement on freezing oil production, and plans to hold specific meetings in mid March.

It is understood that Saudi Arabia's crude oil output in January is 300 thousand barrels / day less than last June high point, to 10 million 91 thousand barrels per day, in fact, it is an example for other oil producing countries, and 3 to September new Saudi Arabia refinery production and summer peak demand will further reduce its exports; Iraq's February crude oil production also decreased.

It is estimated that the increase of crude oil output in the whole OPEC area is limited.

In addition, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States has declined for 10 consecutive weeks, and US crude oil output has dropped to 9 million 102 thousand barrels / day for 5 consecutive weeks.

This shows that the US high cost shale oil production capacity has accelerated signs of clearing.

Therefore, although the current US crude oil inventories are still rising, the most serious period of substantial supply and demand in the international crude oil market has not yet arrived. But the most pessimistic moment is expected in the crude oil market. Once the US high cost shale oil clears up, the price of oil will probably exceed expectations.