Li Zhilin'S Interpretation Of Where A Shares Are Going

As long as we really think about the interests of the state and the people and make good use of the living policy, we can end the long bear market of China's stock market and enter the slow track, and attract a large number of OTC investors to enter the market with the stable and healthy development of the market and the effect of making money, so as to give full play to the function of the capital market in serving the real economy better.

This week's market trend is complicated and uncertain. When it rises, even seven plus Yang is also a step and three turn back. However, from 2900 to several times, it will take only a few dozen minutes to kill.

Investors generally have no confidence in the A share market, unwilling to trade, and the volume of pactions has shrunk.

But the public opinion that "the stability period is over and the bottom of the 2638 points must be broken" is overwhelming.

However, this week, the four attempt to kill 2800 points was fruitless.

Who can save A shares? Where is the way of A shares?

The "2638 points must be broken" in recent years are mainly caused by technical analysis.

Or "two times 2638 points too close, difficult to double bottom", or "2900 pairs of points above the formation of a small double head", so double bottom will break, or said: "now only C4 waves, there will certainly be more destructive C5 wave, will stab 2500 points, or even 2300 points."

However, this kind of pure technology analysis and prediction of the big bottom, ignoring the stock market fundamentals, economic, policy, and market factors, is also lack of sufficient theoretical basis. There is a lack of philosophical dialectical logic argumentation and concrete analysis. It is mainly a causal deduction and formal logic deduction, with only isolated evidence and no circumstantial evidence.

Therefore, historically, the "perfect bottom" pursued by pure technical analysis is often destroyed by the imperfect bottom.

For example, in history, 386, 325, 512, 1025, 998, 1664, 2049 and other major bases are all

Before the bottom of the prediction, we missed it.

Therefore, in the bottom area, the biggest difficulty and mistake in pure technical analysis is that in the vague moment, it is impossible to predict that the policy factors that are not changing will change the general trend, fail to surpass themselves, and make more frequent idling.

If we are too persistent at the bottom of the 2638 point, will it be another chance to lose the conversion?

That is, valuation, volume, economic, monetary and stock market policy orientation.

From the valuation comparison, the current valuation of A shares (Shanghai stock market 12 times price earnings ratio, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index 10 times price earnings ratio) has been lower than the 1664 point of 2008.

People do not know that the index is still more confused than the 1000 point at that time. It is always thought that there is no adjustment in place. At least, it should return to the starting point of the bull market in 2014, 2200.

As we know, hundreds of blue chip companies have gone public in the past 8 years.

As the economy grows at an annual rate of more than 8%, the performance of listed companies is also increasing.

Coupled with trillions of refinancing, a large number of high-quality assets have been injected into the listed companies and the valuation of listed companies has been reduced.

Therefore, people can not just stare at the index, do not see its connotation change, always expect the market to return to 1664 points in 2008 or 2049 points in 2014, only to feel relieved and let people rest assured.

In terms of volume, the volume of Shanghai stock market on Thursday is only 133 billion, which is 1/10 of the total volume of 12600 million in 2015, and 355 billion of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities.

On Friday, the volume of Shanghai stock market shrank to 128 billion 400 million again, and the volume of two cities reached 304 billion, the lowest since October 2014.

The most important symbol of the bottom area is the amount of land, which is more reliable than any other technical analysis index.

Because it is a state of truce in the game between more than 100 million chips and funds, and it is the crystallization of thinking and behavior of both sides.

From the policy point of view, this year's target of economic growth 6.5-7% has been set; M2 is 13%.

The tone for directional easing has also been clear; the government work report has not mentioned registration system, and the government has taken care of it.

In the 2850 point, the chairman of the new SFC shouted boldly to the market: "I hope to buy stocks rather than sell stocks". If he did not have three fires and the "Shang Fang sword" to revitalize the market, where would it be so great?

This Saturday, the central bank, the three Committee (the SFC, the Banking Regulatory Commission, the CIRC) and the first committee will hold a press conference.

In particular, chairman Liu Shiyu's position deserves more attention.

I think there is a great possibility of launching a new deal to save the market.

At the 2860 point, Liu Shiyu, at least like the first seven chairman of the SFC, will also pull out a picture of Liu Shi Yu on the market.

In the past 26 years, I have judged the bottom of all the important three bases by judging the bottom of these magic weapons. I hope this time will be fulfilled.

The 2638 point becomes the bottom, or the bottom area, which should be able to be established.