A Shares Trend Again Differentiated Inflation Again

Last week, the US stock market continued to rebound, but Japanese and European stock markets were in turmoil, while emerging markets were mixed. Oil and nonferrous metals continued to rebound, while gold fell slightly.

The trend of A shares is once again divided, and the main board is down, and the gem is rebounding.

The economy has not started well.

China's economic data for the first two months were released on Saturday, with industrial growth rate falling to 5.4%, hitting a new low of 09 years, confirming the sharp decline in manufacturing PMI before.

Under the background of production capacity, almost all of the steel, coal, cement and non-ferrous metals in the overcapacity industry are in a state of atrophy.

From the perspective of demand, consumption growth in domestic demand has also declined steadily, and the sharp decline in external demand has also been a drag on the economy.

Real estate thrive.

In all

The only real estate data is dazzling.

The growth rate of real estate sales in the first two months has reached 28.2%, which is 6.5% above that of last year, and since March, the growth rate of real estate sales in major cities has been accelerating, and the popularity of sales has spread from the first line to the second tier.

The growth rate of real estate sales is as high as 43.6%, which confirms that housing prices are rising sharply.

Correspondingly, the growth rate of new real estate starts from minus to 13.7% for the first time in 3 years, and the growth rate of real estate investment has also rebounded to 3%, which has led to a slight rebound in total investment growth.

Wait for the Fed's interest.

Next week, the Federal Reserve will convene the March Conference on interest rates. Although the recent US employment and CPI data have improved steadily, the market is surprisingly consistent. The futures market predicts that the probability of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve in March will be 0, but the probability of raising interest rates in 4 and June will increase significantly, with the probability of raising interest rates in June to be close to 50%.

Last week, when the European central bank again offered a big negative interest rate move, Delagi suggested that there was limited room for further interest rate cuts, and the Bank of Japan did not intend to further negative interest rates.

Or gradually get into a bottleneck.

The money is rising and falling.

February

There has been a big dive, and the iconic new credit has dropped from 2 trillion and 500 billion in January to 726 billion 600 million.

On the one hand, credit control is worth affirming and dispelled the worries of the new round of the 4 trillion strong stimulus.

However, in the first two months of the year, the total volume of credit and social integration still increased substantially compared with the same period last year, especially in the medium and long term loans related to real estate and infrastructure construction in February.

In the first two months, the economic data is not good enough, and the momentum of monetary growth is still stable under the steady growth. In addition, the early March is expected to exceed expectations.

Inflation is coming back.

Inflation rose markedly in February, of which CPI hit a new high of 2.3%, while PPI continued to rise to -4.9%.

Although the rebound of CPI has the effect of Spring Festival and weather factors, we must not ignore the impact of overrun.

On the one hand, industrial production is shrinking under the supply side reform. On the other hand, the excessive increase in monetary credit drives investment demand to rebound, which means that prices have the power to act.

In addition, the rise in housing prices will also drive CPI upwards from rents and wealth effects, which affect CPI's living and food prices.

Historical experience shows that the demand stimulus policies in the structural pition period are often poor, and are very easy to push up inflation and asset bubbles.