Cotton City Staged "Zhu Maichen'S Wife"

Since March,

The market is hot.

The announcement of target price in Xinjiang cotton region, the over expected decline in the number of imported cotton and its products, and the falling price of domestic cotton and its products to historical lows have aroused heated debate among investors.

In view of the trend of cotton prices in the future, the market share is increasing, and the total position of Zhengzhou cotton has increased to nearly one million hands.

In from March 21st to 26th, the reporter interviewed some cotton trade enterprises and cotton reserve banks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces.

Enterprise,

The company carried out on-the-spot investigation, and exchanged with the insiders for the cotton production situation in Xinjiang, Shandong, Hebei and other regions.

In the survey, reporters learned that after the domestic cotton prices fell continuously, the pattern of insufficient cotton production in China was formed.

At the same time, with the continuous deepening of the cotton market target price policy in Xinjiang cotton area, its good market effect began to appear, and the influence of cotton purchasing and storage policy is gradually fading away, and the market mechanism has been further developed.

After the "baptism" of cotton prices continuing downward, the domestic cotton industry is currently building a new pattern, which tends to diversify, and the industry restores bright prospects.

1 million confrontation between positions, where to come from?

Recently, the black market futures have surged into a huge market which has overturned many investors' investment ideas.

Overnight, the spot price of rebar, billet and some chemical products increased by several hundred yuan per ton, which made the spot participants stunned.

Some investors began to shine their eyes in search of the next breed that might erupt.

At this time, Zheng cotton 1609 contract price "break ten thousand" and the market rich speculation theme let many investors eager to try.

Some investors tried to buy and win.

However, the price of iron ore and other futures varieties quickly dropped from the high level, and even appeared to limit, which allowed many investors to rush out of Zheng cotton.

Investors who watched for a long time breathed a sigh of relief and began to expect the cotton price to "break" again. Some aggressive investors expect that the price of Zheng Mian 1609 will fall to 8000 - 9000 yuan / ton.

Reporters in Jiangsu, Zhangjiagang, Nantong and Zhejiang Ningbo, Fuyang, Jiaxing, Hangzhou and other cotton traders and textile enterprises in the process of exchange, found that the current market for cotton prices in the future how to go, whether the demand is warmer and so on there is a big difference in expectations, this is the reason for the high position of Zheng cotton city and the price of Zheng cotton constantly "fighting".

At present, the cotton market in China is full of wait and see, confusion, anxiety and so on. Cotton prices continue to decline for several years and market speculation on the price and quantity of national cotton and so on, so that enterprises in the whole industry chain do not dare to hoard goods, whether it is ginning factories, traders, textile mills, clothing factories and other industrial enterprises are going to stock. Some investors with industrial background are selling large quantities of consigned products in Zhengzhou cotton market. A group of investors who are short of 1605 contracts in zhengmian city with 12000 to 13000 yuan / ton are still not making a profit.

On the other side, the pessimism of the market was strong before the black line rose, but in the twinkling of an eye, at the port and steel mills, the mountains of iron ore and twisted steel salted fish turned over.

Some investors believe that this phenomenon is expected to be replicated in the cotton market.

Under the background that the shortage of domestic cotton production has been normalized and the price of Zheng cotton forward contracts has slipped to the low level of history, the risk of a moderate amount of risk is not large.

Since then, the air force in Zheng cotton city has been accumulating continuously. At this time, the dumping rules of national cotton stores have not yet been able to land, which has increased the uncertainty of cotton prices in the future. Investors who are watching and seeing more cotton prices have found the basis to complete their own operation plans and actively participated in the confrontation as planned.

Zheng cotton's total contract positions once approached millions of hands.

Then, how will the spot cotton price evolve in the future? How will the cotton and cotton confrontation stand and end?

2 lack of production needs to be normal. Why should enterprises not worry?

At present, Xinjiang and Hebei, Shandong, Hubei, Henan and other major cotton producing areas are mostly in the stage of land preparation and broadcasting. The cotton planting area in the new year is increasing or decreasing, which undoubtedly has an important impact on the domestic cotton price trend.

During the interview, the reporter learned that due to the low subsidies for cotton planting, and the purchase price of seed cotton market has not reached the psychological expectation of cotton farmers in recent years, the cotton farmers in Hebei, Shandong, Hubei and Henan will not have strong willingness to grow cotton in the new year.

According to the survey data of farmers' willingness to grow in the producing areas, the cotton planting area continued to decline in the mainland this year. It is a foregone conclusion. Even if the yield per unit area increases during the cotton production in the future, it will not be able to fully compensate for the loss of the total production caused by the decline of the area.

Reporters also from Shandong, Hebei and other cotton traders, ginning plant responsible person learned that the mainland cotton farmers have reduced the planting area to varying degrees this year, the main reason is that since the new cotton market in 2015/2016, the purchase price of seed cotton has dropped one by one, and now it has dropped from 3.2 yuan / jin to 2.85 yuan per Jin.

Cotton farmers in some areas even store seeds and cottons in their homes for two years, not only can they not cash in cash in time for the new year's cotton planting, but also cause the quality of seed cotton to drop.

At the same time, due to the sluggish sales of lint cotton, the purchasing power of ginning mills is not high.

It is also understood that in recent years, the lack of labor force in the cotton area in the mainland, the high cost of agricultural materials, labor and so on cultivated by cotton, and the low Cotton Subsidy in the mainland, and the reduction of cotton prices year by year, are more common for cotton farmers to replant other crops.

At present, with the increase of temperature, Xinjiang cotton farmers are developing cotton planting from south to north.

From the new year's cotton farmers' willingness to grow cotton in Xinjiang cotton market, the cotton market in Xinjiang cotton region has a strong desire to grow cotton when the market target price is higher than the psychological expectation.

Market participants estimate that there will be little change in cotton planting area in Xinjiang this year.

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"In 2015/2016, cotton production in Xinjiang is about 3 million 500 thousand to 3 million 700 thousand tons, and the output of cotton in the mainland is about 1 million to 1 million 100 thousand tons, and domestic consumption is about 6 million to 6 million 600 thousand tons."

Yang Zhijiang, general manager of Shanghai Century Boulevard, general manager of China Merchants futures, told reporters that the shortage pattern of domestic cotton production has already been formed. The gap between production and demand needs to be imported to make up for the sale of national cotton and cotton. If the cost of imported cotton rises or the selling of national cotton stores is not timely, the price of domestic cotton will rise in the future.

However, reporters in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces visited cotton related enterprises, and found that although the domestic cotton production shortage needs to become a consensus of the cotton industry chain enterprises, they do not care about it. They even do not agree that the shortage of production will lead to the prediction of the price of cotton and its products.

Why do cotton companies do not think that the drop in output will lead to a rise in cotton prices?

3 National storage cotton - the "toad" that can't be thrown away

In the survey, the reporter learned that not only did not care about the decline in cotton production, production profits, raw materials and finished goods inventory has bottomed out, cotton companies are also not rushing to purchase.

Whether visiting cotton mill, cotton trade enterprise, or textile mill or clothing enterprise, the cotton and its products that journalists saw are very few.

After inquiring into the bottom of the matter, the reporter learned that cotton related enterprises are reluctant to increase the stock of cotton and its products, mainly state-owned cotton stores will start selling in April this year.

Although the purchase and storage policy has been suspended for several years, the implementation of the target price policy in Xinjiang cotton region has entered the third year. Good market results are emerging. However, due to the large number of national cotton reserves, the total volume is as high as 10 million to 11 million tons, which can fully meet the consumption of cotton market in the country for about a year and a half.

Therefore, even if the inventory of raw materials and products of cotton is very low, the production and operation of enterprises can make money, and cotton enterprises still dare not increase their inventory.

Before the huge inventory of cotton stored in the state has not been digested, it is difficult for the domestic cotton prices to be determined by the market.

Since the implementation of the cotton purchase and storage policy, domestic cotton prices have been rising all the way, and soon exceeded the cost of imported cotton.

Although the implementation of the purchase and storage policy protected the interests of cotton farmers to a certain extent and stabilized the market prices at the early stage of implementation, however, due to the timely adjustment of market prices, domestic cotton prices continued to rise after exceeding the cost of imported cotton. At the highest price, the price of the cotton reached a few thousand yuan, leading to the influx of large quantities of imported cotton and their products into the domestic market. Most of the domestic cotton entered the national treasury, which resulted in many cotton downstream enterprises unable to bear the high cost, or to close down or shut down or move out.

In 2014, the state decided to implement the target price policy in Xinjiang cotton area. Without the support of purchasing and storage policy, domestic cotton prices dropped rapidly from 30 thousand yuan per ton to the current 10 thousand yuan, and some cotton enterprises suffered a lot because of the large inventory of cotton and their products, and the cotton prices continued to fall.

The reporter learned from the interview that the national cotton stores are mainly made up of imported cotton, Xinjiang cotton and real estate cotton, of which the real estate cotton accounts for a relatively large proportion and the quality deviates.

In addition, according to some cotton traders and textile enterprises who have participated in the competitive bidding of national cotton reserves, there are some problems in the storage of national cotton stores, which are mainly due to heavy losses, grade discrepancy and serious outsourcing.

From the cotton industry chain's analysis of the psychology of "hate and fear" of the national cotton store, the national cotton store is very much like a "toad" stuck to the shoes. Although the quality is deviated, the quantity is very large. Once the sale is sold, as long as the price is right, it will certainly be useful for the procurement of cotton enterprises, which will have an important impact on the market supply and price.

"Before the announcement of the sale rules, the enterprise did not know when the toad would jump out, and it would be damaged if it was not noticed."

An entrepreneur admitted.

It is understood that last year, the number of national cotton reserves was about 1 million 600 thousand tons, and the actual turnover was less than 70 thousand tons, mainly due to higher selling prices.

The market expects that the number of state-owned cotton dump sales this year will be around 2 million tons, and the selling price may be close to the market price.

Due to the current market's lack of bottomless sales volume and the lack of effective recovery of market demand, cotton manufacturers are afraid to act reckless in production and operation before the sale of state-owned cotton stores.

However, a comprehensive analysis is made from the information learned by reporters.

The sale of state cotton and cotton, like Damour's sword, hung on the head, made the bearish dare not sell a lot, and the low price area dared not do more to fill the market with anxiety.

However, once there are more profitable contingencies, enterprises will be able to replenishment at any time.

At the same time, the market role of cotton and its products has changed at home and abroad, while the national cotton store is still a "monster", but its impact is weakening.

4 cotton city staged "Zhu Maichen's wife"

If the downstream textile, grey cloth and clothing enterprises are likened to Zhu Maichen, then the domestic cotton is Zhu Maichen's wife.

In the past few years, the price of domestic cotton has been high, and eventually it has risen to more than 30 thousand yuan per ton, so that downstream enterprises can not afford it. Downstream enterprises have to choose cotton and cotton yarn to meet production needs. Now the price of domestic cotton has come down. Is the order of cotton downstream enterprises like Zhu Maichen's wife?

From the reporter's investigation and analysis of cotton enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the current domestic cotton prices have been very close to the cost of imported cotton. The demand for domestic cotton and cotton yarn is continuing to warm up, and the price advantage and market of imported cotton and cotton yarns are being lost step by step.

Data released by customs and other departments showed that the number of cotton and cotton yarn imported from China dropped sharply in the 1 to February this year.

Reporters in some textile enterprises, most of the production of raw materials is domestic cotton.

But this does not mean that the demand for domestic cotton will increase significantly.

It is understood that although the price advantage of domestic cotton is beginning to show, the overall quality is inferior to that of imported cotton, and the downstream products of medium and top grade cotton still need to purchase imported cotton.

A cotton and cotton yarn importer told the futures daily that if the imported cotton and cotton yarn are unsalable, the market will remain unchanged, and the possibility of reducing the price will not be ruled out.

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More importantly, taking into account the production costs of electricity, labor and taxes, many textile enterprises, especially large and medium-sized enterprises, are pferring their production capacity to overseas, such as the leading enterprises of color spinning in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, which have built factories in the United States and Vietnam. Compared with the domestic ones, the cost of products produced in some parts of the world is lower. These enterprises will hardly be able to purchase domestic cotton as raw materials, and some of their products will also be pported back to domestic sales.

Reporters also learned in the interview that before the sale rules of national cotton were not released, the price of domestic cotton and its products was uncertain. Textile and other downstream cotton enterprises were mostly short orders. Cotton Traders and textile enterprises were all selling orders, and the enterprises in the whole industry chain had a weak desire to replenishment.

From the current layout of the textile industry, the trend of textile industry moving to Xinjiang and abroad is more obvious.

It is understood that the construction of factories in Xinjiang, the local government subsidies to enterprises together, equivalent to the production cost per ton of cotton yarn reduced by around 3000 yuan, for the mainland textile enterprises, this is very attractive.

According to the business people, because of the high cotton prices in the past few years, the blending industry has been developing opportunities, and the non cotton fibers such as rayon have been used in large quantities. At present, terminal consumers are not particularly concerned about whether the clothes or fabrics are pure cotton.

5, use futures to survive.

Industry experts believe that, for cotton growers and cotton related enterprises, under the current market structure, both cotton and its products will be at risk if prices rise or fall.

The rising price of cotton and its products seems to increase the income of cotton farmers, so that the products of cotton enterprises can be sold and earn money, but the output of cotton and the production capacity of enterprises will naturally increase. If farmers do not work hard on cotton quality, the cotton enterprises will not work hard in terms of product brand, performance and meeting individual needs. Finally, farmers' cotton will not sell well, and the products of enterprises will not be sold.

From this perspective, the expert said that the adjustment of cotton planting area by the farmers in the producing areas, the vigorous development of machine picked cotton, the production of non pure cotton production lines by cotton enterprises, and the development of non cotton products are the needs of the diversified and high-end development of the cotton industry, which can enhance the risk resisting ability of the whole industry.

Therefore, it is not a bad thing for the farmers to stop planting cotton, spin off part of the textile enterprises, and import the cotton traders to lose their jobs.

Reporter survey found that the domestic cotton industry is pferring to the resource advantage areas, and the awareness of enterprises such as futures and other financial instruments in the industrial chain is also becoming more and more strong.

At present, many cotton growers in Xinjiang cotton area have to make plans with reference to Zheng cotton price before planting and seed cotton sale, so as to avoid the phenomenon of blind expansion and low price of seed cotton.

Insiders said that for some large textile enterprises, increasing cotton and product inventory is facing the risk of falling prices, while maintaining the state of low inventory of cotton and products is also facing the risk of rising prices and raw materials which may not be purchased in the future. At this time, enterprises can solve these problems better by doing basic trading or related off-site options trading through Zhengzhou cotton futures market.

According to the reporter's understanding, the current target price policy has been advancing smoothly in Xinjiang cotton area, and has achieved good market results. Domestic cotton and its products prices have been gradually integrated with the international market, and the market mechanism is playing an increasingly important role.

Some small and medium-sized textile enterprises have quickly adapted to the new environment, such as changeable market demand, unstable pricing mechanism, tight order time, and so on.

The domestic cotton industry is expected to renew its vitality in the future.