China'S Textile And Garment Exports Will Face Four Constraints.

China

After the hard passage of exports in 2015, the situation will be even more severe in 2016.

Global economic and trade growth is weak and overseas.

Demand decline and domestic labor costs continue to rise. In response to more external competition, some countries' trade protectionism is more prominent. How to find opportunities and power in the face of unprecedented pressures and difficulties is an urgent demand for textile and garment industry.

At the 2016 China Asia Textile International Forum organized by the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce and the Shanghai Xi Wei company in Shanghai recently, the industry elites of textile and garment R & D, production, trade and retail in more than 20 countries and regions from China, the United States, the European Union, Vietnam, Kampuchea, Burma, Pakistan and India gathered together to share the views and experiences.

Customs data show that in 2015, China's textile and clothing exports showed a double drop in volume and price, and the data in 2016 1~2 were still not optimistic.

In 2015, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 283 billion 890 million US dollars, down 4.9% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, the export volume dropped by 1.2% and the export average price dropped by 3.7%.

In the month of 1~2 this year, the export situation has not improved significantly. The short term continuation of last year's downward trend, the export volume of 39 billion 790 million US dollars, decreased by 15.7%.

The overall export situation of the whole year is not optimistic.

Apart from the gloomy export overall data, the performance of market segmentation is also hard to see.

In the three traditional export markets of the United States, Europe and Japan, they only maintained growth in the US, while in other emerging markets, they only maintained steady growth in exports in Africa and the Middle East market.

Specifically, in 2015, China's textile and apparel exports to the United States maintained a 6.6% increase, while exports to the European Union and Japan decreased by 13.7% and 11.7% respectively.

From the intercontinental market, China's exports to Africa and the Middle East have maintained a steady growth of 5.2% and 4.6% respectively.

In other major export markets, the rapid growth of exports to ASEAN market in the first two years has dropped slightly by 0.8%, and exports to Russia have declined significantly by 32.6%.

Jiang Hui, President of the China Textiles Import and Export Association, pointed out that the export trend of China's textile and clothing was greatly influenced by the development of the market economy. In 2015, China's textile and clothing exports achieved steady growth in the US, mainly attributable to the steady recovery of the US economy and the strong performance of the apparel retailers.

For example, the main reason for the decline in exports to the European Union was the sharp depreciation of the euro in 2015. The reasons for the continued decline in Japanese exports were the downturn in the retail market caused by the Japanese economic downturn and the excise tax increase, and the continued depreciation of the yen against the renminbi. There were also the reasons why Japanese Importers continued to shift their focus to ASEAN countries. The sharp decline in exports to Russia was mainly due to the sharp fluctuations in the Russian economy in the second half of last year due to the economic sanctions in Europe and the United States, the ruble fall, and the fact that some customers' credibility declined and customs clearance was not convenient.

New challenges under the new normal

In 2016, China's textile and garment exports will face more complex and severe foreign trade development.

Jiang stressed that China's textile and clothing exports will face four major constraints.

First, the growth of international market demand is weak.

The UN report lowered the world economic growth forecast in 2016 from 3.3% at the beginning of the year to 2.9%.

Two, the traditional competitive advantage of China's textile and clothing exports is declining.

Since 2009, China's labor cost has increased by more than 10% per year. The labor cost in coastal areas is close to that of Eastern European countries, and is 3~5 times that of neighboring countries such as Burma.

Three, the pfer of industries and orders has accelerated, and the pfer has expanded from Southeast Asian countries to more extensive regions such as Latin America and Africa, or even developed economies in the traditional sense of "gradient pfer", such as Eastern Europe and the United States.

Four, there is no effective support point and growth point for export.

According to the data reflected by industry associations and enterprises, in 2016, 37 industries such as textiles may face zero growth or negative growth.

Besides, the trend of the rise of protectionism in the international community should not be underestimated.

In 2015, trade protectionism in India, Argentina, Peru, Brazil and other countries was more prominent in the export products for China's textile and clothing industry. Trade protectionism in Pakistan, EU, Indonesia, Turkey, Columbia, Egypt and other places also rose.

In 2016, we must attach great importance to the trend of trade protectionism.

In addition to the pressure on textile and garment exports, the import side is also faced with no small resistance.

Jiang Hui said that at present, the growth of China's textile and clothing imports mainly depends on domestic fixed asset investment, production matching demand and export demand driven by processing trade, and is influenced by commodity prices.

In 2015, the growth rate of domestic fixed assets investment decreased year by year, and nearly 80% of the investment in manufacturing industry declined. It is expected that commodity prices will remain low in 2016 and domestic demand remains weak. Although some products have reduced import tariffs, the possibility of strong rebound in imports is less due to lack of growth momentum.