Women'S Shoes Slowed Down, And BELLE Finally Failed.

As China's local retail giant with a revenue of 40 billion,

It has always been a weathervane in the retail industry, and in the second half of 2015, BELLE was finally unable to sustain it.

10 or so of the group.

Brand and multiple sports brands have always been the market indicators for measuring the consumption power of Chinese high-end consumers. Under the pressure of China's economic slowdown, stock market turbulence and the real estate bubble, BELLE's profit slump also indicates that China has actually fallen into a middle-income trap.

It is expected that due to the weakening of footwear business, 2015/16 net profit will decrease by 4 billion 763 million 900 thousand yuan (RMB, the same below) in the fiscal year 2014/15, or only 26.201-30.965 billion yuan in the year of 35%-45%.

BELLE International said in Ying police:

It is expected that the net profit will decline 35% to 45% year-on-year at the end of February this year, mainly due to the continued weakening of footwear business performance. In 2015/16, especially in the second half of this year, the sales decline of the same store has further expanded, resulting in a larger impairment loss for some goodwill and other intangible assets related to footwear business. The income and gross profit margin of footwear business in the 2015/16 year are all lower than that in the same period of 2014/15, and the cost continues to rise.

BELLE international rose 1.74% on Tuesday to HK $4.68, the lowest level since the 2008/09 financial crisis.

Data:

From the end of the 2013/14 fiscal year, BELLE international footwear business in the same store began to show a downward trend. The decline in the second half of the fiscal year in 2015/16 expanded to double digits. The three and fourth quarter sales in the same store fell 10.4% and 16.5% respectively, down nine consecutive quarters.

HSBC securities, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and UBS both lowered the target price of BELLE international.

After the four quarter sales figures were released in mid March, HSBC securities, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and UBS both lowered the target price of BELLE International (1880.HK), and only Morgan chase optimistic about the stock price trend.

Remittance estimate:

In the 2017 fiscal year of BELLE international, the pre tax profit margin of footwear business will be reduced from 22.1% in fiscal year 2015 to 16.5% in fiscal 2016, while the 2017 fiscal year is expected to further decline to 13%.

As a result, the bank cut its target price by 12% to 5.8 yuan and downgraded its rating from "buying" to "holding".

Goldman Sachs believes:

The decline of the footwear business of BELLE group can not be based on the exception of the weather, and the main reason is the loss of market share.

The bank maintained a "neutral" rating, and its target price dropped slightly from HK $5.6 to HK $5.5.

Credit Suisse:

Credit Suisse sharply reduced BELLE's international target price to HK $4.6, a decrease of 35%, and the rating from "neutral" to "running big market".

The bank said the same quarter sales fell more than expected in the four quarter, reflecting the fierce competition from the electricity supplier. This will also make the group's same store sales continue to backslide, and a large number of new stores' losses and low efficiency will drag the group's profits, and it is expected that gross profit margins will be further damaged.

UBS maintained a "sell" rating, and the target price was reduced to HK $3.8.

JP Morgan said:

The same store sales decline in the fourth quarter and the scale of new store expansion are all unexpected. Although sports and apparel business performance is better, it is not enough to drive the stock price up, so the "neutral" rating is maintained and the target price is raised to HK $11.5. 16.5%