Whether Macroeconomic Policy Will Be Adjusted Is Still Unknown.

In an interview with China Securities Journal reporter, economist Pan Xiangdong said that from the first quarter economic data, 1-2 months of industrial growth, consumption, exports and other indicators dropped to a certain extent, reflecting the first quarter of the macroeconomic downturn is still in the stage.

But it is noteworthy that fixed asset investment growth has stabilized, real estate investment has picked up, and the property market has recovered. The manufacturing PMI that just released in March has returned to the ups and downs line, and the economy is releasing some relatively optimistic signals.

From the policy point of view, the massive credit increase and the substantial growth of new projects indicate that the government's backing efforts are strengthening.

Therefore, although the macro-economy is still downwards from the trend, the economy is gradually stabilizing in the downtrend.

The growth rate is 6.6%-6.8%.

From the latest monitoring data released by relevant departments, the price of food has risen for three consecutive weeks since March, and the price level has risen for five consecutive months.

Pan Xiangdong expects CPI to be 2.8% in March.

The recent high food prices, especially vegetable prices, are mainly due to insufficient market supply.

In early spring, the weather is hot and cold, and the temperature is fluctuating.

It has a certain effect on vegetable growth.

The supply of vegetables in the South has decreased, and the growth of vegetable production has slowed down in the north.

When the weather gets warmer, the growth rate of vegetables will accelerate, and the prices of vegetables that will continue to rise in the near future will be eased.

Pan Xiangdong believes that food prices rose in March, although the price of non food has a certain downward trend, but in March to the two quarter prices may be close to 3% level.

Pan Xiangdong said that the current

The policy is a positive monetary policy with a loose monetary policy. Although monetary policy has not changed, the tight capital market shows that the central bank has been vigilant against the recent rise in prices.

"The economic performance in the first quarter is basically in line with expectations, so the possibility of significant adjustment in the next stage of macroeconomic policy is very small."

Pan Xiangdong said that the implementation of a positive fiscal policy in the economic downturn stage is reasonable and necessary. Monetary policy should also take into account factors such as exchange rate and inflation, and will not release too much loose signals.

Local economic policies may be adjusted as the situation changes. For example, for some cities with excessive housing prices, price adjustment measures may be strengthened.

This year, the government's infrastructure is mainly to support the economy.

Relaxation is not necessary.

Our country is different from Japan and Europe. A large amount of money is draining away. If the depth of financial market is not enough, it may cause prices to go up.

Fiscal policy has clearly been more vigorous this year than last year, but in a comprehensive way, financial strength may not be as strong as market expectations.

On the one hand, the tax revenue will be reduced by 500 billion yuan after the camp is changed to increase. On the other hand, the revenue growth of fiscal revenue in 2016 will be 6.6%, down from last year, and government funds will also decline because of the decrease in land sales, and the profits of state-owned enterprises have not improved. The deficit rate of 3% has reached a certain limit.

Therefore, subject to these factors, the intensity of fiscal policy will be affected.

What can be seen is that no matter monetary policy or fiscal policy, it is basically in line with the main keynote of the bottom economy and the people's livelihood.

But if there is a crisis at home and abroad, especially in other countries, monetary policy will be more positive.

Recent real estate regulation has been repeated.

China's real estate inventory is 7 trillion and 300 billion square meters, 70% of which are concentrated in three or four lines and below cities.

The so-called "go to stock" is mainly to the real estate stock, the current Chinese residents have about 50 trillion yuan of deposits, the central government's credit easing is mainly the hope of residents by adding leverage to the real estate stock.

But the real situation is that the prices of the first tier cities and the second tier population flowing into cities are rising rapidly.

First tier cities have their own particularity, but a large number of cities will increase the price of other cities.

I think that the first tier cities may maintain the existing housing price situation for a long time. Some second tier cities such as Nanjing, Wuhan and Hefei will go up in the urban areas. Most of the three or four tier cities still have to go to the stock market, and prices may drop slightly.

The differentiation of two yuan in the real estate market will be more obvious.