Zheng Cotton After A High Shock After A Narrow Shock.

The zhengmian daily line forms a small line. Intra day turnover has shrunk and positions have increased. Basic situation: Dezhou's 71 cotton ginning enterprises, in 2015, opened a scale of 30, compared with the reduction in storage period by about 40%. This year, the company has a maximum purchase volume of about more than 3000 tons, with a minimum acquisition of tens of tons. During the period of storage and purchase, there were about 50 enterprises in Dezhou. Purchase volume 2000-3000 tons.

　　 Storage period The average yield of local ginning plants is about 200-300 yuan, which is basically not profitable this year. Enterprises with relatively short sales periods can see small profits, such as those that can be sold within two months after production, and can get less than 100 yuan; the enterprises with relatively long sales cycle are basically losing money: first, this year. lint The market price will be lowered all the way; if the sales cycle is long, the corresponding storage and labor costs will increase.

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Cotton processing enterprises are still "marginalized". To promote the supply side reform of cotton industry, the state reserve cotton wheel will be normalized. The national development and Reform Commission said that it would strive to digest stock reserves in 5 years. Even if it does not count the number of late rounds, only about 10000000 tons of cotton reserves will be digested about 2000000 tons per year. In addition, the annual import volume of about 1000000 tons of high-grade cotton imports has declined significantly compared with the previous years. However, imports of high count yarn and combed yarn such as India, Pakistan, Vietnam and Indonesia are becoming more and more intense, and are also destined to become the spoiler of high quality cotton demand by textile enterprises.

Although the target price has dropped by 500 yuan / ton, the seed cotton purchase will still lose money. In 2016, chemical fertilizer, cotton seed and plastic film decreased as a whole, which could compensate for the reduction of target price. But the price of cotton mill was reduced by 0.20 yuan per kilogram. Can seed cotton be collected? As at the end of March, there were 576 cotton ginning plants in Xinjiang in 2015, and 178 of the corps were involved in the public inspection, while the total volume of cotton inspection in Xinjiang in 2016 was only 3 million 271 thousand tons. On the average, the processing capacity of each plant is no more than 4300 tons of lint, which is just enough to enter the "bottom guarantee" processing capacity of the Xinjiang Bao plant. It also takes into account that a certain number of 400 enterprises in 2015 did not enter the market. The contradiction between the huge capacity and the cotton resources is still outstanding in the short term.

The increase in cotton risk has led to a decline in credit support for state-owned policy banks and other commercial banks. Since 2014, when the state completely withdraw from the storage and purchase policy, the cotton processing enterprises in the territory have been pushed to the forefront of the market, but in the past two years, "high sales and low sales" have been achieved. In 2014, when the scales were opened in 9 and October, 3128B grade lint was 14200-14500 yuan / ton, and fell to 13000 yuan / ton in the first half of 2015. In 2015 9 and October, when the scale was opened, 3128B grade lint was 13300-13500 yuan / ton, now it has dropped to 11500 yuan / ton. Cotton has once become a "hot potato", and the quality of lint has declined considerably due to weather and cotton seeds. Losses have become commonplace. Therefore, loan banks have tightened their credit, and some of the cotton mill loan qualifications have been canceled, and their credit standing is relatively good, and loan repayment is in time. Enterprises have enough loans.