PTA Futures Show A Trend Of Bottom Up.

This year, PX's production profit has been maintained at a good level of 100-150 US dollars / ton, obviously better than the same period last year.

One of the main reasons is that the phased excess of naphtha has provided cheap raw material costs. On the other hand, the overhaul of the PX plant is expected to increase, and the high start-up operation of the PTA factory in China to enlarge the market demand for PX has increased the demand for PX, and the supply and demand of PX has been in a tight balance. Since March, China's supply side reform and the surge of bulk commodity speculation brought by the central bank's water supply have prompted the price of PX to rise all the way. As of March 31st, the CFR China price of PX has been closed at $812.5 / ton, much higher than that of the ACP bargaining price of that month.

April

The negotiations have been finalized at $790 / ton, which is 65 US dollars / ton higher than in March, indicating that the PTA production cost in April has increased.

At the same time, although the price of ACP negotiation is lower than the PX price of the current paction, it does not necessarily mean that the PX price in April has a significant downward trend.

Judging from the actual supply and demand situation of PX in the two quarter, we believe that there are more than 3 million 500 thousand tons of PX devices in the two quarter for overhaul, while India Xincheng's 2 million 200 thousand ton PX plant plans to go into operation in the two quarter. However, the stable operation of the plant will take place at least at the end of the two quarter and there is uncertainty. Therefore, the incremental supply of the new PX capacity is not enough to make up for the overhaul loss of the PX device in Asia, and the seasonal maintenance of the Asian refinery will still benefit the naphtha.

Such as upstream raw materials, PX supply stage tighter and cost support strong situation is expected to maintain.

In the first quarter of 2016,

Futures are showing a trend of bottom up, which can be divided into 4 stages.

The first stage (from the beginning of January to the beginning of mid January): this stage is mainly caused by the devaluation of China's RMB exchange rate and the financial market risk caused by international oil prices and the global stock market's falling down. The domestic commodities and PTA futures market continue to explore the trend. Among them, the PTA fundamentals are faced with the high load of factory start-up and the inventory pressure brought by the downstream polyester's Spring Festival maintenance.

The second stage (mid January to early March): the oil producing countries frozen production agreement stimulated the international oil price bottom to pick up. At the same time, the Central Bank of China [micro-blog] resorted to a new increase in the cost of the renminbi to ease the pressure on RMB devaluation, and the global market risk appetite rebounded to promote the stock market and the domestic commodity market shock.

PTA futures rose sharply in the cost push and expected demand for the peak season. In March 1st, it was sealed in the trading limit, followed by a few days following the strong atmosphere of commodities, and the PTA futures index rebounded to 4828 yuan / ton.

The third stage (from early March to March 24th):PTA futures followed the trend of domestic commodity fluctuations, and the characteristics of the dishwashing were obvious. During the period, the Fed's March interest rate conference failed to raise interest rates and gave rise to market risk preference. The PTA futures band rebounded, followed by a sharp fall in commodity adjustment under the pressure of PTA's own inventory pressure and China's economic growth, and the PTA futures index was adjusted to a minimum of 4564 yuan / ton.

The fourth stage (from March 24th to April 1st): with the sharp fall of PTA futures, the PTA cash flow has shrunk to 200 yuan / ton in a low level, and the PTA factory's willingness to raise prices has increased significantly. Yisheng will reduce the volume of April contract goods by 10%, and Ningbo's Taiping and Zhuhai BP parking inspection and maintenance. The new Han BANG 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA device has not been restarted. The tight supply of PTA is expected to push the PTA futures reverse commodity adjustment trend more strongly, and the funds are also crazy. The PTA futures index holds 1 million 687 thousand hands, corresponding to the PTA futures index reaching the highest rebound of 4898 yuan / ton.