The Strong Pattern Of PTA And MEG Squeezes The Profit Space Of Polyester

In 2016, China's polyester production capacity is expected to have 11 sets of production, involving about 3 million 280 thousand tons of production capacity, and the capacity growth rate is expected to be around 6%. If we consider the long delay of some devices, we expect the actual production capacity to be put in about 2 million 700 thousand tons, and some long-term parking will be eliminated. In 2016, the actual capacity growth rate may be lower than expected.

Since March, raw materials

And the strong pattern of MEG squeezed the profit margins of polyester. By the end of March, the average production loss of polyester links was 60 yuan / ton. The current stock of polyester links remained at a moderate level of 18 days, and inventory pressure was lower than that of the same period last year.

Taking into account the release of terminal demand from the G20 summit in the two quarter of this year and the demand for home decoration brought about by the upgrading of real estate sales, the demand for terminal textiles in the two quarter is expected to be better than the same period last year.

There is still little room for improvement.

This year's Spring Festival, China's polyester enterprises have been very rare car parking operations, which led to 1-2 months of this year, the average production load and output of polyester in China were significantly lower than in previous years. In March, after the resumption of post holiday recovery, China's Polyester operation rate has increased sharply, and the production of polyester has also increased significantly.

The total output was 8 million 186 thousand tons, down 1.36% compared with the same period last year.

It is estimated that the average production load of polyester in China will reach 81% and 83% in 4-5 months, corresponding to 317 and 3 million 250 thousand tons of polyester production. In June, the downstream textile will enter the off-season, and the demand and output of polyester will also decrease.

On the macro level, the Fed's rate hike is expected to slow down. China's stage of economic stabilization is expected to increase, and the risk of RMB exchange rate disorderly depreciation will disappear. However, the short-term Greek debt crisis is showing concern. The macroeconomic market atmosphere is weak in the role of PTA guidelines. We need to be alert to the negative impact of the Fed's rate hike on the financial capital market in May or so.

In the two quarter, PX device maintenance and PTA supply reduction were expected to make PX supply and demand temporarily strong. Once the PTA device is overhauled and the PX repair device restarts, it will bring PX supply pressure.

Corresponding PTA price is expected to hold a downward trend mode. In the second half of the two quarter, with the restart of PX maintenance device and the weakening of terminal polyester demand, the support strength of PTA cost side will be weakened. If there is no new PTA capacity maintenance, the PTA supply and demand side will also become loose again. At the same time, the warehouse receipt of the 1605 contract will also flow into the market and bring pressure to the spot market.

Therefore, corresponding to the two quarter of 2016 market trend, we believe that in the first half of the two quarter, PTA futures will continue to fluctuate upward under the support of cost and inventory drive. Then, in the wake of PX maintenance restart and terminal polyester demand weakness, PTA futures will be affected by the cost side and weak demand. At the same time, the Fed's rate hike is expected to suppress the market risk preference will also lead to PTA shock callback.