Economic Data Appear V Font Improvement

Starting from the 2638 point of the current round of market, the next step has three possible trends and three categories of judgement, resulting in three viewpoints: the first is the bear market rebound, and the most to 3200 point is to re explore the bottom; second view is that a new bull market that broke through 5187 points has been launched because of the improvement of the V character in the economic data.

I do not agree with the first two points of view, and hold third viewpoints.

It is believed that the Shanghai Composite Index will not re explore the new lows, nor will it break through the 5187 peak level this year, instead, it will go up to the intermediate market of 4000 points, and then consolidate it in the 4000 point interval.

The Shanghai Composite Index 4000 point interval will become the relatively moderate and relatively stable price platform for the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities this year and even the next year.

While the economy is improving, the new term

Policies and measures on the stock market starting from the national conditions are releasing positive effects.

In the process of reassembling, an intermediate market is inevitably moving forward.

First, the basic quotations for intermediate market are available.

The economic statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics this week, such as GDP growth in the first quarter, import and export trade, electricity generation, investment and consumption, all show that the macroeconomic stability has stabilized, and some data have rebounded and the risk of hard landing has been released.

If there is any doubt about the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the assessment and outlook of IMF IMF on China and the global economy is consistent with the data released by the National Bureau of statistics.

IMF 2016

The growth rate dropped from 3.4 to 3.2, and China's economic growth forecast was increased from 6.3 to 6.5, the US economy decreased from 2.6 to 2.4, and Europe decreased from 1.7 to 1.5.

Second, don't expect big bull market.

Even if the Shanghai Composite Index stands at 4000 points, there will be a major obstacle if we want to break through the 5178 peak of last year.

First of all, the national bailout funds are all unlocked, and the impulse and pressure to throw the shares will exist. Secondly, the performance of big blue chips represented by banks is difficult to increase significantly, and its share price is also difficult to rise substantially. Thirdly, the 5000 point interval of Shanghai stock index will inevitably trigger large shares of Eastern stocks to sell, and the issuance of new shares will inevitably accelerate again, thereby preventing stock prices from rising. Fourthly, the inherent institutional defects of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have not been completely solved. The imbalance between the interests of large shareholders and the two market interests has not been resolved from the system.

All these will hinder the big market index from breaking out of the bull market.

Third, operation strategy.

Since this year is a framework of restoration, overall upward, relative balance and structural market, operation is still light index and heavy stock.

In particular, there will be better performance opportunities for asset restructuring.

The recovery of cyclical industries does not mean that the performance of cyclical listed companies will increase significantly.

The number of listed companies exceeding the actual demand will inevitably be pformed into high-tech, Internet big data, new energy and new materials after reorganization.

Only by pforming and changing the shell can the listed companies have new vitality and share prices will have hype themes.

In this relatively stable era this year, grasping the restructuring of stocks is the most important operation strategy.