The Measure Of The Central Bank'S Policy Is CPI.

The Central Bank of any country must look at the face of inflation.

The central bank is formulating monetary policy, regulating the economy through interest rates and money supply.

How can we measure the moderation of the central bank policy or how can we know that banks do not spoil banknotes?

In China, it's about CPI.

If there is no accident, the National Bureau of statistics will announce the CPI in March before and after the opening of the Shenzhen stock market at 9:30.

This data may have a greater impact on the stock market.

Since October 2015, when the CPI's year-on-year growth rate hit a new low of 1.3%, it began to rise all the way (see chart), breaking 2% to 2.3% in February 2016.

At present, the rate of fixed deposit is 1.5% in one year, which means that ordinary depositors are enjoying negative interest rates.

Due to the recent significant rise in food prices, especially pork prices, the research institutions generally believe that the CPI in March will * increase by more than 2.5%.

Some agencies believe that it may reach 2.6% or even 2.8% (see chart below).

If it is 2.5%, it is in the expected range, but it is not obvious to the stock market.

If a significant increase of 2.5%, such as 2.8%, will constitute a larger short-term negative.

Because the 2.8% distance from the country's inflation control target this year 3% is very close.

Because China's CPI does not contain the factors of buying houses, food factors account for a large proportion, while pork accounts for a relatively large proportion of food factors.

"Pigs are determined."

People living in big cities know that your expenses are largely related to the purchase.

Therefore, CPI without price will be distorted.

But even so, because the government attaches importance to CPI, we must attach importance to CPI.

The national development and Reform Commission released an analysis article 10 days ago. It is estimated that the pig prices will be high in the Mid Autumn Festival and the national day before the national day, but there will be little room for improvement.

This means that CPI will not reduce in the next few months, and it is estimated to be up to 2.8% or more earlier.

Today (April 10th), there is another news worth noting: Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, said that China's economy is now very close to the bottom, but the change in the first quarter is unclear and needs further confirmation.

Regarding the time of hitting the bottom, he believes that China's economy is expected to hit bottom in the second half of 2016 or the first half of 2017.

The real estate has reached a historic turning point, "the reason is that the peak demand for urban residents is about 1200-1300 units," which reached the ceiling in 2014.

Liu Shijin's view is close to this column's view.

As a result of continuous stimulus measures, China's economy has begun to appear bright in the first quarter, and some indicators are beginning to pick up.

And manufacturing PMI, but it is hard to reverse V, and the bottom still needs to be reconfirmed, or even repeatedly bottomed out.

This factor, together with the rebound of CPI, has made monetary policy unpredictable. This is the reason why the stock market has changed in recent times.

On the whole, the stock market from April to May can still be cautiously optimistic.

It is difficult to expand space, but the downward policy is not allowed, but stocks will be active again and again.

Investors should firmly adhere to the concept of speculative trading and select stocks instead of catching up or killing.

If there is a clear profit, the bag will be safe, and there will be a significant adjustment to buy it, but the position should not exceed 7.

There is another news worthy of concern today: the Party committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission has decided that Wang Jianjun, deputy secretary and general manager of the Shenzhen stock exchange party committee, will be removed from the post of deputy secretary and general manager of the Party committee of the Song Liping stock exchange of Shenzhen.

Caixin said Wang Jianjun was one of the nine reserve cadres appointed by the SFC in the second half of 2014, or Song Liping became president of the Securities Industry Association.

Public information shows that Wang Jianjun has been the director of the general office of the SFC and director of the Party committee office since March 2015. He served as the director of the market supervision department of the SFC and director of the research center.