Stock Market Outlook: Reversal Conditions Are Not Yet Ripe.

At present, optimists believe that the rally will exceed 3600 points, especially after the 3000 points on the index station.

The high point of rebound is hard to judge accurately, but the 3600 point is a very important position, which is the high point before the current fall. If the breakthrough is effective, the market will evolve from a rebound to a reversal.

Although we are firmly optimistic about the rebound at 2600-2700, we still believe that this is a rebound and the market needs time to concussion.

The core variables that determine the stock price are interest rate, profit and risk preference. As we have analyzed above, the core logic of the current market is that the policy side is warming to drive the risk preference to rise. Therefore, it is a rebound. If we want to reverse, we need to lower interest rates or improve profits.

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Bull market fermented in innovation. By the end of 12, small and medium-sized profits were turning upward. The structural bull market appeared. In the second half of 14 years, the reform was expected to increase and monetary easing was relaxed. The inflow of funds was significantly enlarged, and the bull market was fully spread. After 15 years March, monthly net capital inflows were all above 1 trillion.

In the second half of 15, the pformation of cattle + big buffalo suffered two major troubles: first, the US innovation power slowed down, total factor productivity declined, American stocks stopped rising, began to shake, and small and medium profit growth slowed down.

The reform has not worked, and the driving force of economic growth is out of date.

Second, the Fed raised interest rates and the pressure of RMB depreciation appeared.

Be limited to.

From the perspective of large class assets, the trend of capital inflow into stock market is interrupted due to the change of stock market environment.

When the market enters the concussion period after the bull market, there are two ways to regain vitality: first, innovate and reforce, improve profits, analogous to the United States for 94 years.

Second, reform will be renewed and efficiency improved, analogous to China's 97-99 years.

And do it and cherish it.

After the Shanghai Composite Index dropped to 2638 in January 27th, we had been alone in holding the 2600-2700 point as the judgment of the bottom area. After February, it has been put forward that the 3-4 month is the best window period in the first half of the year. During the two sessions, in a hesitation, it put forward that "a great probability of breaking up the market has started."

To this day,

Has rebounded 17%.

It refers to a rebound of 25%, and the probability of rebound is over half, and it will be cherished and kept track of the important points corresponding to the Fed's interest conference, market sentiment index and technical analysis on 27 April.

Looking forward to the future, the whole year is still a shock market and a mobile war. The pessimistic scenario at the end of January can not be seen for a while, and the conditions for reversal are not sufficient.

Since March, there has been continuous recommendation of high growth in small and medium sized enterprises, such as new energy vehicles, entertainment sports, and high Beta sectors such as brokerages and military industries. At present, it can still hold, and choose consumer goods such as aquaculture chains, liquor, Chinese medicine and so on when the future is robust defense.

The economic data released in the first quarter of 15 are better. Will this drive the continuous improvement of profits? We think it is very difficult to recover the growth of the economy itself.

Industrial added value increased by 6.8% in March, a sharp rebound compared with the 1-2 month, mainly because the growth rate of fixed asset investment rebounded sharply, and the fixed asset investment growth in the 1 quarter was 10.7%, which was better than 10% in the 4 quarter of last year. The growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods has not rebounded significantly. The first quarter exports were the lowest in 6 years.

The sharp rebound in the growth rate of fixed assets investment also stems from the growth rate of real estate investment. The 1 quarter real estate development investment accumulated 6.2% over the same period, much higher than 1% in 15 years, and the new construction also rebounded.

But the rebound in real estate sales driven by the start and investment is the result of policy stimulus.

After 2008, the real estate cycle went downhill, and the growth rate of commercial housing sales continued to decline. The growth center dropped from around 20% to 10%.

In the past 09 years, the real estate cycle has been rising for one year when the policy is stimulated. After that, the policy tightened up and the sales volume declined for two years.

At the beginning of 15, 5 real estate reductions and 5 interest rates reductions, business tax exemption, adjustment of the down payment ratio and other real estate policies brought about a rebound in the real estate market, of which the rebound in real estate sales has been 1 years.

Moreover, every time the real estate sales rebounded, the investment and start up rate of recovery was lower than the previous one.

In the future, the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates to restrict China's monetary policy easing space. Shanghai and Guangzhou have tightened up their real estate policies. The sustainability of the real estate chain recovery is still difficult.