China'S Economic Development Has Entered The Throes Of Pformation Of New And Old Energy.

15 China 2015 held in Beijing

Ye Xiangju, Deputy Secretary General of China Leather Association, introduced the economic performance of China's leather industry in 1-12 months of 2015 and 1-2 months of 2016, and analyzed the factors affecting the smooth development of China's leather industry and predicted the future development trend.

Reporters learned that the growth momentum of the global economic situation is insufficient, and the conflict situation in the regional situation has intensified. China's economic development has entered the throes of the pformation of new and old energy, and economic growth has shifted from high speed to high speed.

China's leather, fur and products

It is also hard to be independent. Sales revenue, profits and imports kept steady growth, but the growth rate continued to fall. Exports fell for the first time since 2010.

Specifically, the development of leather industry in 2015 showed two characteristics: first, the growth rate dropped, the pressure of industry development increased; secondly, the industry differentiation was obvious.

Growth slowed down industry development pressure

According to Ye Xiangju, first, the development of the industry is slowing down, and the downward pressure is increasing. This feature is in the prosperity index, sales revenue, total profit, import and export,

Sales and other indicators are clearly reflected.

Over the past 2011-2015 years, the annual curve of mid leather leather boom index has shifted downward in recent five years, and for the first time in 2015, it gradually entered the gradually cooled area with a monthly mean of 89.36.

In 2015, only the export index was in the stable range, and the monthly mean value was 98.23. The total sales revenue and total profit were fluctuating in the gradual cooling area, with a monthly average of 89.54 and 82.31 respectively.

Sales revenue and earnings grew steadily and the growth rate dropped.

In 2015, the sales revenue of leather, fur and products and footwear industry in China's scale was 1 trillion and 400 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 3 percentage points. The total profit was 88 billion 730 million yuan, up 5.4% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 3.1 percentage points.

The decline in exports can be seen as unexpected. The trend of downward trend has become more evident since the second half of the year.

In 2015, China's leather, fur and products and footwear industry exported 86 billion 130 million US dollars, down 3.1% compared to the same period last year.

Among them, the footwear industry accounted for 59.4% of exports, down 5.1% compared with the same period last year, while the growth rate was 11.8% over the same period last year.

The top five provinces in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangsu and Shandong accounted for 80% of the total export volume, and the average growth rate dropped from 4.9% last year to 0.8%.

In 2015, China's leather, fur and products and footwear industry imports amounted to US $9 billion 570 million, an increase of 2.1% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 8.6 percentage points.

Affected by the drop in demand, the growth rate of semi-finished leather and finished leather, which accounted for 46% of the total imports, fell by 15.7% and 3.9% from last year to 5.4% and 9.6% respectively.

Online and offline mode of increasing the price and lowering the price is popular.

Ye Xiangju told reporters that, in a comprehensive way, sales in the domestic market are sluggish, and online and offline growth is decreasing.

From the line down, in 2015, the national key retail enterprises had 110 million pairs of footwear sales year-on-year, an increase of 1.3% over the previous year, and retail sales of 45 billion yuan, down 5% from the same period last year.

From the online perspective, the sales volume of shoes on 15 e-commerce sites was 550 million pairs, an increase of 7.3% over the same period last year, and sales volume was 69 billion 300 million yuan, down 3.2% from the same period last year. The underwriting sales volume was 130 million, an increase of 0.9% over the previous year, with sales of 14 billion 940 million yuan, a decrease of 19.1% over the same period last year.

The trend of industry differentiation is obvious.

Judging from the output of main products in the industry, light leather and leather shoes keep growing, leather clothing and fur clothing are decreasing.

In 2015, the output of light leather at the national scale was 600 million square meters, an increase of 2.2% over the same period last year, accelerating by 1.6 percentage points, mainly driven by the growth of automobiles and leather furniture.

And downstream products industry has varying degrees of growth decline, leather shoes production growth fell 1.9 percentage points, leather clothing production growth rate dropped 23.4 percentage points, fur clothing production slowdown slowed 91.5 percentage points.

From the perspective of export target market, the top five export markets of leather, fur and products and footwear industry in 2015 were the United States, the European Union, ASEAN, Japan and Hongkong, accounting for 64.3% of the total.

Among them, exports to the United States and ASEAN increased by 5.6% and 8.7% respectively, and the pulling effect was obvious. Exports to the EU, Japan and Hongkong fell by 4.1%, 6.3% and 9.7% respectively.

In 2015, China's leather, fur and products and footwear industry looked at exports to the BRICs: only India's exports increased by 11.5%, and Russia, South Africa, Brazil and other markets declined to varying degrees, down 33.2%, 5.2% and 16.1%, respectively.

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In 2015, the industry import structure was more differentiated, on the one hand, the import of raw materials was reduced by 5.2%, on the other hand, the production of manufactured goods was 11.2%, the proportion of the product was increased to 48.2%, and the orientation of product import consumption was more obvious.

In 2015, the top three of China's leather, fur and products and footwear industry were imported from the European Union, ASEAN and Brazil. The growth of imports was mainly dependent on ASEAN, and imports from ASEAN accounted for 2 billion 320 million, accounting for 24.2%, up 43.9% from the same period last year. Imports from the EU and Brazil decreased by 6.6% and 13.3% respectively.

At the beginning of this year, the China Leather Association conducted a survey on the 2015 production and operation of enterprises, and found that the differentiation among enterprises was obvious. Some enterprises with weak design ability, poor market control, and irregular management, and enterprises with insufficient innovation had been struggling to make ends meet.

The traditional brands such as AOKANG, Kangnai, giant one, golden monkey and so on have achieved varying degrees of growth. There are also rising stars such as Luo Chi, who have achieved super high growth in sales revenue of 33% in outdoor draught and Internet + draught.

The prospect is not optimistic, but the potential is huge.

In the 1-2 months of this year, the industry exported 12 billion 290 million US dollars, down 21.1% from the same period last year.

Imports of US $1 billion 210 million decreased by 10.2% compared to the same period last year.

In addition to the lack of industry innovation capability, weak brand and weak channel control capability, it is in the middle and low end of the global industrial chain itself, but also faces the development constraints such as the weak market demand growth, the weakening of the domestic low cost competitive advantage, the difficulty of driving the element driven mode, the pfer of industry to Southeast Asia and non continent, and the close load of resources and environment.

Ye Xiangju said that the fundamentals of China's steady economic growth have not changed.

China has great potential market, complete industrial chain, efficient industrial cluster, high-quality industrial team, and the world's largest capacity. In the short term, no country or region can undertake such a huge capacity. These are the effective foundation for the development of China's leather industry; with the advance of intelligent manufacturing, the structural reform of the supply side is deepening, the industrial structure is gradually optimized, and the cultivation of innovative talents will provide a new source of power for the development of China's leather industry.

It is expected that the leather industry will basically remain stable this year, and the main indicators such as sales revenue and profits will continue to grow steadily. There will be more uncertainties in exports. On the one hand, we should take a look at the global economic trend. On the other hand, we should also look at the support of China's fiscal policy, and call for the reduction of import tariff costs of raw materials such as raw skins, raw fur and so on.