Cotton Spot Large Scale Quotes

The announcement of the development and Reform Commission's announcement of cotton reserves was finally released in the wake of the market's endless calls. Cotton and textile circles were spreading around for a time, and cotton was also discussed fiercely by both sides.

On the morning of 18 th, Zheng cotton futures responded to this with a trading limit.

Cotton spot also appeared in a large scale to raise quotes, some traders raised 300 yuan, others simply stockpiling goods "strange", stop foreign quotes.

The reason for the rise in cotton prices is that the demand for replenishment is also an important factor, especially in the absence of good resources.

The rising cost of raw materials will also push yarn prices up. The price of domestic yarns with high 32S will be 19500 yuan / ton.

Imported yarn also rose 200-300 yuan, and the price difference between 32S and domestic yarn was less than 200 yuan.

Part of the textile enterprises reflect the downstream price has been accepted, domestic yarn and imported yarn spot sales are relatively smooth.

The demand for imported yarn is even in short supply, and the goods must be booked one week in advance. The main reason is that the imported yarn is low on the basis of the expected impact of the reserve cotton rotation. Two, the downstream demand is slightly better.

At present, there is not much stock of imported yarn at all ports, and 21S is most out of stock. Guangdong siro spinning sales have improved.

Last week, domestic and foreign cotton continued to rise.

Turning around and improving the rupee and other factors, the price of the outside market has risen steadily, up to 6-8 cents, and the purchasers said that the quotation in the 1 days after the most exaggeration increased 3 times. Therefore, the previous contract has also asked for an increase of 2-3 cents, or it may delay the delivery.

Even if the 15 day reserve cotton rounds are announced, the foreign businessmen are still at a high price. It is difficult for the downstream to accept and buy little. The two sides are "deadlocked", leaving more uncertainty for the future price of imported yarn.

So how much impact will it have on imported yarn?

Because the price is affected by supply and demand in the short term, April is the traditional peak season for textile industry. Imported yarn has been in short supply, while domestic yarn is subject to cotton prices and cotton merchants' reluctance to sell. Some spinning enterprises are faced with an awkward position of "no food in hand".

In the long run, the storage of cotton will cause certain impact on imported yarn.

Because of its low quality and low strength, the reserve cotton is suitable for spinning below 32S yarn, which coincides with the main market of imported yarn.

As the reserve cotton production will promote part of the domestic middle and low end yarn production capacity recovery, so cotton yarn consumption has not risen sharply, raw material competition will become increasingly fierce, and this will be the trend.

This watershed may occur in late May.

In May 3rd, when the reserve cotton was officially released, the package inspection would increase the difficulty and time of shipment. Therefore, the estimated time to deliver the goods will be 2 weeks. Then, starting from late May, the low price domestic yarn produced by the reserve cotton will be "confrontation" with the imported yarn.

according to

The average price of the round out (April 11-15) price should be 11548 yuan / ton in the price of 3128B level. If the price is 800-1700 yuan / ton according to the market rumors, the starting price is about 9848-10748 yuan / ton, plus the difference between Mao and Gong, and the average price is 10600 yuan / ton. If the price is calculated at the start price, the cost of producing cotton yarn with 21S and 32S may be 16160 yuan / ton and 17600 yuan / ton, 1500-2000 yuan / ton less than the imported yarn spot, and the price advantage is obvious.

In recent years, the spinning capacity of India has been developing rapidly. The yarn below 32S has been repeatedly recognized by Chinese buyers because of its quality problems. Now it has been fully recognized by the domestic cotton mill, and its quality stability is continuously improving.

And the production of high count yarn has also been continuously expanded. For example, some India manufacturers in Shanghai show that they have been able to increase the number of spinning parts to 80S.

However, I sincerely hope that the domestic spinning industry in the recovery of low end production capacity, can still be stable and good high-end yarn industry in China's traditional highland, do not be "swallowed in" by other countries.

Of course, the estimated price of the current cotton reserve is estimated by the current spot price of imported yarn. The result is that the actual price difference is likely to be less than or larger than this.

First, if the price of cotton continues to rise, it will certainly increase the auction price; the two is that the actual paction price is bound to be higher than the starting price; the three is that the cotton price fluctuation interval is unknown during the several months round; and the four is that the price of imported yarn is still variable.

However, no matter how to calculate the price of domestic cotton and imported yarn, the price of domestic cotton and imported yarns will be very different from that of imported yarns due to the linkage between domestic and foreign cotton and the international cotton prices.

And according to the past experience of textile enterprises, the premium will mainly focus on the color level, and the indicators such as strength will not drop too much.

From the end of May to the turn of August, when the domestic yarn is "threatening", the survival space of imported yarn will be rather difficult. It is expected that some changes will also be made in the import yarn varieties: 1. the low count siro spinning and low spin spinning and ring spinning may reduce import greatly; the 2. strong demand for higher air-jet spinning, such as 32S air-jet yarn imports, may be basically stable; 3., because of the polarization of domestic cotton, good cotton stocks are low, and the price may remain high. After the import yarn is lost in the low quality yarn "position", it may be converted to a certain land lost from yarn exports of 40S or above. Therefore, from