The Medium And Long-Term View Of A Shares Is Still In A More Optimistic State.

Morgan Morgan (Hongkong) released its investment strategy report on the domestic market in the second quarter of 2016.

In the first half of this year, GDP will decline to some extent between 6.5% and 6.7%, and may be slightly stabilized by infrastructure and real estate investments in the second or third quarter, the report said.

In the field of industry, he said he could focus on emerging consumer industries.

Speaking of the issue of RMB exchange rate, Zhang Shuwan believes that in the short term

The exchange rate has stabilized and foreign exchange reserves have narrowed down. As the Fed expects higher interest rates in the second half of the year, the exchange rate may fluctuate. Overall, the RMB exchange rate is generally stable before the end of the year, but it does not anticipate the specific trend of the RMB exchange rate.

Zhang Shuwan added that the central bank still has room to reduce 1-1.25 percentage points, and interest rates depend on circumstances.

The report said that due to a slight increase in real estate investment growth in January and February, coupled with the government's steady growth this year, infrastructure investment is likely to continue to maintain a relatively high growth rate.

It pointed out that the current steady growth is still the main keynote of the government. Under this background, fiscal policy will continue to support.

This year, the deficit rate has been raised to 3%, and monetary policy remains moderately loose, with structural support.

In addition, the Fed did not raise interest rates in March and the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the whole world.

Rebound, non dollar currency appreciation, emerging markets and commodity risk preferences improved.

Zhang Shuwan, chief investment officer of Hongkong, Morgan, believes that the possibility of raising interest rates in the second quarter is still small.

Expected in the second half.

Recently, under the multiple uncertainties such as policy, inflation and exchange rate, Zhong Weilun, senior fund manager of Morgan (Hongkong), maintained a neutral and prudent view on the bond market.

He pointed out that from the monetary policy point of view, the central bank hopes to continue to maintain the stability of the capital side, so liquidity in the future should remain adequate; if monetary policy can continue to relax, we should take into account the downward pressure on economic growth and the fluctuation of exchange rate.

At present, the credit spreads are in a historical position, and the frequency of credit incidents has increased significantly in 2016 when the risk of economic downturns intensified.

Therefore, it is possible to focus on credit rating with relatively high credit rating to reduce credit default risk.

As for the A-share market, Situ Fanghua, senior fund manager of Hongkong's Morgan (A), said that due to the moderate easing of monetary policy, the short-term impact of the liquidity environment is low, and the medium-term risk may come from the pressure of large-scale issuance of private placement.

In addition to a small number of second tier cities with soaring housing prices, real estate inventory policy has a greater chance to continue.

The delay in registration system and strategic emerging board has led to a sharp decline in IPO supply.

At present, the valuation of the main board is getting closer to the bottom, and the valuation of small and medium enterprises is still above average.

Looking at the A share market from a medium to long term, it still holds a positive view. It is expected that the economy is expected to stabilize in the second or third quarter, and earnings will stabilize. The annual growth rate will be roughly equal to that of 2015, and it will be between 0-5%.

As the Federal Reserve delayed interest rate hike, the European Central Bank cut interest rates and domestic steady growth policies, the first half of the second quarter was a better investment climate.

The risk of the market may appear in the second half of the second quarter. The expected increase in the Fed's rate hike and the gradual increase in domestic inflation pressure may lead to a substantial change in liquidity expectations.

Situ Fanghua believes that the atmosphere of related industries has improved as a result of the easing of global liquidity and the rise in prices of commodities and agricultural products.

In the context of economic stabilization, the previously large white horse growth stocks will also welcome the opportunity of valuation repair, and remind that when the Fed's interest rate is expected to start again, the market may face adjustment pressure.