How Do We See The Soaring Cotton Futures Market?

The recent soaring cotton futures market has attracted the attention of the state. In order to discuss the countermeasures, in April 20th afternoon, the national development and Reform Commission called on relevant departments to communicate with the current domestic cotton futures abnormal fluctuations and the adverse effects that may cause the cotton industry chain.

The futures market, which was originally considered to be subject to greater policy influence, should stop the tempo of the boom.

So who is the ultimate beneficiary in this price increase game?

In recent years, the price of reserve cotton has gradually declined, especially in 2015, the domestic cotton liner's base price has dropped to 13200 yuan / ton.

In 2016, due to the combination of domestic and international

The bottom price will be set, so the price will be further reduced.

However, the futures market is contrary to the expectation of lower prices.

Market participants have speculated that when the fundamentals have not changed, the current soaring situation is entirely controlled by off site funds, which is excessive speculation.

In the course of this rally, the Bulls obviously benefited a lot. Of course, cotton enterprises also made a lot of profits. A small number of cotton enterprises not only solved the inventory problem, but also increased the sales price.

Some people in the industry say that China's cotton boom has benefited from foreign textile companies.

If

Continue to go up, import yarn will pour into the country, textile enterprises simply can not resist.

This will have a great impact on the domestic textile industry.

The so-called "mantis catch cicada, the yellow star is behind", is it possible for foreign textile enterprises to take advantage of fishing profits?

In addition to long and cotton enterprises, foreign countries

It also gains a lot.

As shown above, from the beginning of January 2015, domestic cotton and cotton yarn imports showed a gradual downward trend. Although there was a large fluctuation, the trend of decline did not change.

Especially since January 2016, the import volume of cotton and cotton yarn has plummeted, and the import volume is much lower than that of the same period last year. The main reason is that the price of cotton has dropped, and foreign cotton and cotton yarns have lost their competitive edge.

Reserve cotton is about to turn out, and the price will be kept in line with the international cotton price. The price advantage of the outer yarn will no longer exist, and the main market of the outer yarn is China. Once the export is blocked, it will be a fatal blow for them.

At present, the soaring cotton price seems to let the yarn enterprises see the hope again.