Two Quarter Asian PX Device Enters Maintenance Season

Asian PX total capacity is 38 million 860 thousand tons / year, of which China's PX capacity is 13 million 380 thousand tons / year, South Korea PX production capacity is 9 million 680 thousand tons / year, Japan PX production capacity is 3 million 780 thousand tons / year.

In 2016, Asian PX overhaul manufacturers were mainly concentrated in China, Korea and Japan, and most of the maintenance time was concentrated in the second quarter of 2016, with the total capacity of 5 million 700 thousand tons / year in the first half of 2016.

This year, the maintenance of the PX device is slightly higher than that of 2015. The supply may be tight again, which will support the price of PX.

In addition, Tenglong aromatics 1 million 600 thousand ton PX plant will not be restarted in the first half of 2016.

After the PX device is overhauled, the tight supply and demand pattern of PX may change.

First quarter

The supply and demand is loose, and the PX increase is large, which makes the PTA processing profit compressed to about 500 yuan / ton, and the loss of PTA factory is more serious.

In January and February, PTA was low, and the imbalance between international crude oil supply and demand remained unchanged. It once fell below 30 US dollars / barrel, a new low since 2004, and the cost side support was weak. In addition, PTA device maintenance was relatively small, the load remained at around 65%, the scale of downstream polyester repair was huge, weaving rate was affected by the Spring Festival, and the operating rate declined rapidly. At that stage, PTA was in a low position.

Status.

In March, PTA rose for a while. This stage was mainly driven by the rise of bulk commodities, while the downstream polyester load increased rapidly, and the supply and demand of PTA returned to a tight balance.

PX profit in 2015 has been around $50 / ton, and the PX profit level has increased significantly in the first quarter of 2016 to 100 US dollars / ton.

On the one hand, the price of naphtha is low, the PTA load is higher, the demand for PX is better, the PX price is boosted, and the profit is maintained at a higher level. In these two reasons, the profitability of the PX market is improved.

In the two quarter, Asian PX devices were overhauled. The supply and demand of PX will be tight, and the level of PX profits will remain high.

Due to the low maintenance cost of PTA, there are more PTA devices in the long term parking at present, accounting for about 26% of the total capacity.

Sinopec [micro-blog] acquisition of Xiang Lu petrochemical in the middle of the year, it is difficult to restart in the first half of the year.

2012 and 2014 were PTA

The peak period also resulted in the PTA industry entering an era of excess. In 2016, the two phase of Hon Bang Petrochemical was put into operation in March. In addition, Sichuan Shengda's 1 million ton PTA plant was put into operation at the end of the year. However, due to various factors, the probability of production is low, and the new PTA production capacity has come to an end.

Crude oil rebound and NAP-PX spreads remain high. These factors will enhance the cost side support of PTA, which will be conducive to the uplift of PTA price center.

In the first quarter of 2016, polyester prices bottomed out and rebounded sharply. On the one hand, PTA and EMG rebounded, especially the rebound rate of EMG was quite significant, and the cost of polyester had led to a rebound. On the other hand, during the Spring Festival, the polyester repair scale was larger, and polyester polyester stocks decreased significantly after the Spring Festival, and polyester profits resumed.

Customs statistics show that in 2016 1-2, China exported 39 billion 789 million US dollars of textiles and clothing, of which export textile yarn, fabrics and products were US $15 billion 533 million, exports of clothing and accessories 24 billion 256 million US dollars, textile and garment exports decreased by 15.7% compared with the same period last year, the decrease was the largest in nearly 5 years, of which textile exports decreased by 14.2% compared with the same period last year, and garment exports decreased by 16.63% over the same period last year.

The short term factors and weak demand during the Spring Festival led to a decline in China's textile and clothing exports in the first 2016 months of two, while textile and garment exports continued to decline, indicating that terminal demand has not yet returned.