There Is No Reason Why The Dual Balance Does Not Stop.

The dual balance refers to the part of the securities margin trading business that the broker did not liquidate after the end of the day, because this paction was realized by the client through financing or margin trading to the broker, so it was also known as the dual balance.

In our country, the proportion of the financing part of the dual financing business is usually more than 99%. Therefore, in the usual sense, it is a dual financing balance, which basically reflects the financing balance, that is, the amount of money that customers borrow from the securities companies to buy stocks.

Obviously, the level of financing balance directly indicates investors' enthusiasm for operation and their views on the future market.

From the perspective of development, there will be great progress in the dual financing business, but it must be attached to the big market environment. For now, since the stock market is in a doldrums, the dual financing will slow down, and the balance will also be inevitable. The original understanding of the relationship between the scale of the balance and the ups and downs of the stock market is also needed to be corrected.

Now it seems that before the dual balance increased to 10000 billion yuan, the stock market is hard to shake off the pattern of shock consolidation, unable to form a sharp rise in the market situation.

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After launching, the dual balance has undergone a gradual process of enlargement.

In contrast to the change of stock index, it can be seen that when the roughly double balance was below 600 billion yuan, the market basically fell, but since the second half of 2013, the dual balance has increased to more than 600 billion yuan, and the stock market has also seen a marked rise.

By the end of the year, the stock market had skyrocketed, and the dual balance was also advancing by leaps and bounds. It soon broke through 10000 billion yuan and reached 20000 billion yuan at its peak.

Of course, after that, the stock market fell, and the balance of dual finance also declined. By the end of last year, it had been less than 800 billion yuan.

Thus, there is a strong positive correlation between the balance of dual finance and the rise and fall of the market.

In addition, investors have also found that after the balance of the dual balance exceeds 600 billion yuan, the market will be able to go strong. After reaching 800 billion yuan, it will accelerate upward.

There are people in the fourth quarter of last year, according to the following

The number of tips was successfully handled: the market then rebounded when the balance was reduced to about 600000000000 yuan, and rebounded faster after returning to 800 billion yuan.

And after more than 10000 billion yuan, because it can not continue to increase.

And began to fall back.

Therefore, the dual balance has become a new reference index for people to observe the market.

However, the situation has been different this year. On the one hand, the dual balance has not been reduced to 600 billion yuan line level. On the other hand, although it still has a level of 800 billion yuan, it has not been able to further enlarge it.

Although the parties concerned have taken some measures in this regard, including some brokerages to lower the interest rate of dual finance and raise the guarantee ratio of dual financing collateral, management has also restored several types of financing and reduced interest rates.

However, the dual balance did not increase as a result, and the situation that accelerated after 800 billion yuan in the past did not appear again.

What is the reason for this?

We believe that there are two factors here, one is the expansion of the market size now, and the lack of willingness of investors to enter the market. To some extent, there is a problem of lack of liquidity. At this time, if there is a big rise in the market, there will be higher requirements for volume, and on the dual balance, 800 billion yuan may not be enough.

So before the dual financial system reached 800 billion yuan, the increase would accelerate, while the stock market could also rise, but now it can not be achieved.

The other is that those involved in the dual finance operation are often the most active and adventurous funds in the market.

But last year's stock market crash, this part of the funds suffered heavy losses and many were eliminated.

Investors in the market now have a lingering fear of leveraged pactions, and their enthusiasm is not high.

In the absence of wealth effect in the market itself, the market shock interval is not large, and the operational difficulty is high, many people are cautious about the stock market and are unwilling to make full use of the warehouse operation. As a result, the dual financing business has suffered a cold reception naturally, and its balance is hard to increase effectively, that is quite natural.