The Logic Behind P2P'S Failure

"In the previous stage, some companies engaged in Internet financial business, especially some P2P net loan companies, frequently failed.

Besides part of it is deliberate fraud, most of them may not know exactly what big data is and what data they get. Do we have a good grasp of data mining technology, modeling technology and analysis and evaluation technology?

These problems are not only technical problems, but also ideological and cognitive methods.

Generally speaking, these companies are one-sided in their way of thinking, overestimate their data processing ability, and are related to the prevailing tendency of quick success and instant benefit.

Whether they can use these data and how they should be used for risk identification and control are not seriously applied, and there is no reliable and repeated risk measurement model and scientific and effective data analysis methods.

Yang Kaisheng, the senior research fellow of the Internet Finance Research Center of Peking University, and the former president of the ICBC, delivered the above speech on the keynote speech on "the misunderstanding of big data and its performance in Internet finance" at the "Peking University Internet Financial Development (second issue) conference" held by the Peking University Internet Finance Research Center in April 26th.

Yang Kaisheng believes that some internet financial companies have problems, in addition to the usual laws and regulations are not sound enough, supervision is not strong enough, industry self-discipline is relatively weak, investors lack of education and so on these reasons, I am afraid there is another reason is that we have a certain bias on the Internet, the understanding and understanding of big data technology.

Yang Kaisheng mentioned in his speech that Internet and big data technology provide mankind with tools and methods to recognize problems and analyze problems from a broader perspective, more dimensions and more comprehensive directions.

At the same time, we also put forward higher requirements for us.

In the Internet era, we need not only deal with the relationship between fragmented information and integrity data, but also deal with the relationship between structural data and non structural data.

Yang Kaisheng pointed out that if there are a series of technological advances such as the Internet, big data and cloud computing, it can not help us prevent ideological sidedness and avoid all kinds of metaphysics. On the contrary, because of the progress of these technologies, the emergence of tools makes us more simplistic in understanding things, and more absolute in judging things. That is not only a pity for the progress of civilization and progress in these times, but more importantly, because we have such tools and technologies, it is easier to form various erroneous judgments and lead to mistakes.

For example, because a certain amount of customer information is mastered and a certain amount of customer data is mastered, it is thought that it has mastered the big data in this area, but has neglected the research of data analysis tools and methodology. This will likely affect the identification and prevention of risks in financial business.

Accumulation and spread.

Some Internet companies have not been opened for a long time. For investors' publicity and customers' publicity, they must add a big data technology.

In fact, many Internet companies, at best, are able to keep some behavioral data of their customers.

It is likely that there will be problems if the data that we have obtained is mistaken for the full amount of data and the sample that we own is considered to be a fully representative random sample.

In the Q & a session, Yang Kaisheng pointed out that institutions that can absorb deposits, lend loans and invest must be subject to supervision, developed market economies and emerging markets.

There is no difference.

He further explained that non deposit lending institutions could not absorb deposits and use their own funds or other channels to make loans.

Playing your own money is your own. According to the theory of economics, risk spillover is relatively small.

If we have the function of absorbing deposits, lend money to everyone, or even invest, risk will spread to the public. This is also the reason why all depositors should have special supervision at all times and in all countries.

In the previous stage, some platforms were not only information intermediaries, but also played the role of credit intermediaries.

Information intermediary means that a person needs money, a person has money, and intermediaries provide information for both sides. This is an information intermediary, at risk.

Credit intermediary is to bring all the money, and then lend out, playing a credit intermediary.

Providing guarantee is also a credit intermediary.

Under such circumstances, we must consider the nature of the business that has changed.

We must accept special supervision.

Before many companies became credit intermediaries, but they did not accept special supervision.

For example, banks that absorb loans must have capital adequacy ratio and how much capital they have. How much business can they expand than capital? In case of risk, capital is enough to resist and expand risk.

For example, it is necessary to have the necessary risk preparation, and have the overall loan corresponding preparation, in case of a rainy day.

Some platform companies do not have such provisions. Once problems arise, they can only rely on the east wall to make up for the West.

These problems deserve our serious experience and lessons. This is a special phenomenon which is unavoidable in the process of deepening the reform of China's financial system.

I believe that after this period, government departments, regulators, including the public will get a clearer understanding of this issue than before.

According to the personnel involved in the project, the object of this project is mainly the narrow sense of Internet finance, which is the financial business of Internet enterprises of non-financial institutions, excluding the traditional financial institutions themselves engaged in financial business through the Internet.

Yang Kaisheng believed that the truly authoritative index must have enough representativeness.

Traditional financial institutions engaged in financial business through the Internet is an important part of China's Internet financial development. If it can be incorporated into future research, it will help to improve the authority and objectivity of the index.

The conference was presided over by Yao Yang, Dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University.

The index was first released in December 20, 2015, jointly compiled by the Internet Finance Research Center of Peking University, Shanghai New Financial Research Institute and ant gold service group.

The index needs data from ants finance, and public data of representative Internet financial enterprises or third party organizations such as copper street, PBC and zero one finance.