A Rally In Early May Will Bring A Comeback.

The core logic of current stock market operation is still the change of risk preference caused by marginal changes in liquidity.

At present, exchange rate constraints are gradually coming into contact, and there are no worries about short-term depreciation.

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Looking at the interest rate level in the next quarter, in the early stage of economic recovery, the central bank is still dominated by open market operation, and the probability of interest rate rising is relatively small.

In addition, the profitability of listed companies began to recover, and the estimated level will begin to recover in the two quarter.

China and Thailand Securities pointed out that in the Japanese and European economies continue to be broad and wide expectations, inflation constraints monetary policy is expected to be poor, domestic liquidity continues to expand, economic stage stabilization, risk appetite in the market bottom stage is expected to gradually improve, the two quarter of A shares are expected to show upward shock.

Li Lifeng, a strategist at the state securities company, believes that the current market stock market is characterized by obvious market characteristics. The volume of the two cities has remained at the bottom level. With the phase warming of domestic policies, the index declines followed the release of short selling power. It is expected that the market will usher in a rebound from the end of April to the first half of 5, but the rebound will be limited.

In the near future, with the popularity of the bulk commodity market, the cyclical plate is coming into the market, and has gone out of the market.

Then, in May, which sectors will be expected to lead A shares? Li Lifeng also recommended growth and

The two big opportunity is to give consideration to growth and cycle in terms of specific industry allocation. First, "brokers and liquor". On the theme side, it is recommended that "benefit from supply side reform (building materials, steel, nonferrous metals, coal, etc.), Tesla industry chain, driverless, artificial intelligence, state owned enterprise reform" and so on.

China and Thailand believe that from the perspective of the stock market style, growth is ahead, and the cycle will enter the second wave.

The game between the marginal change of liquidity and the recovery of economic fundamentals determines the style conversion between blue chip and growth stocks.

Short term global liquidity expansion and domestic economic stabilization.

In the upward stage, the growth industry will usher in investment opportunities. It is recommended to pay close attention to investment opportunities in TMT, military industry and other industries.

In the real economy, there will be a second wave of investment opportunities in the cyclical industry.

On the one hand, cyclical stocks are more resilient, which is difficult to grasp for liquidity market. On the other hand, the economy enters the active replenishment cycle, and the sustainability is usually more durable, providing support for the continuation of the cyclical stock market.

In the first quarter, with the big market rebounded after the beginning of the fall, the brokerage business and self operation business were recovering.

The low performance of the securities business in January is now in operation. In March, it continued to maintain a high growth rate since February. Short cycle performance recovery is expected to become a catalyst for the valuation of the brokerage sector.

Up to now, the financial data bulletin of listed securities companies in March showed that the total operating income of brokers in March reached 25 billion 100 million, up 99% from 12 billion 600 million yuan in the previous month, and the total net profit was 12 billion 900 million, up 166% from 4 billion 900 million yuan last month.

Since last year's sharp market pullback, the March business performance of the certificate has hit the biggest monthly increase.

In the two tier market, due to the sharp fluctuations in the performance of securities companies, there have been obvious adjustments since the beginning of this year.

But with the emergence of commercial performance inflection point, the market is expected to gradually improve, and brokerage stocks are expected to become the vanguard of the rebound again.

China CITIC investment securities analyst Yang Rong believes that the 3 month report of the brokerage's ring ratio increased the performance will be the market injection of new power, and the return of the brokerage plate market after the return of 2 times the net rate, the net rate of large securities firms is still between 1.5-1.6 times, it is expected to continue to repair the valuation after a short return.