Cotton Rebound Is Seen Again After A Long Time.

Cotton futures, which entered the bear market since 2011, have become a "bull" state for a long time.

Since from April 11th to 21st, cotton futures have rebounded strongly, and Zheng cotton's main contract has increased by 28.85%.

However, along with the sharp reduction in the way up, cotton futures have entered the regional consolidation since April 21st.

As of yesterday, the 1609 main contract of cotton futures was reported at 12755 yuan / ton, or 2.24% in the day.

Cotton futures, which stumbled and fell for a long time, gained popularity in May.

This year's demand recovery has also prompted a rebound in the market.

According to industry sources, because of the huge demand gap, even cotton throwing and storing, the impact on cotton prices is also not large.

It is noteworthy that, with the near future

The full response to the pricing mechanism of the State Reserve ship is to increase the internal and external linkage of cotton prices, narrowing the price of cotton both inside and outside the country, and step closer to the target of regulating cotton market.

However, as a cotton sales enterprise, there is no regret in the face of this rebound Market: if we lock the price through hedging at such a point, the profit will be protected or even expanded.

In this regard, the relevant analysts believe that the main constraint is that the system of hedging is limited: Xinjiang cotton cargo rights are mostly concentrated in the hands of policy lending enterprises. Most enterprises participate in futures trading under various restrictions. When futures contracts rise, they want to generate futures warehouse receipts and realize hedging, but they can not buy the right to cotton and return the loans in full.

Market participants believe that the timing of such a long choice is not surprising, looking back at the performance of the cotton market in the whole April.

Speed up; cotton planting area continued to decline; imports of cotton and cotton yarn decreased with the same month; the supply and demand of downstream production improved.

It seems that the cotton market can be described as "spring blossoms".

According to the Ministry of agriculture's total cotton industry chain scheduling and the national cotton industry technology system survey, in 2015, the cotton planting area in China was 48 million 551 thousand mu, a decrease of 23.3% compared with the same period last year. The lint yield per mu in the monitoring county was 82.6 kg, a decrease of 4.3% compared with the same period last year, and the total output of the cotton lint in China was about 4 million 800 thousand ~ 5 million tons, a decrease of about 22% over the same period last year.

The cotton planting area in Xinjiang decreased by about about 6000000 Mu compared with the previous year, and the average yield per unit area dropped by about 15%. Even in 2015 cotton imports also declined.

Many good luck gathered, but before April cotton bulls did not appreciate it.

Cotton prices hit a record low in March.

The inflection point finally arrived in April 11th. Under the strong anticipation of the bull market, the contracts had strong shocks.

April 15th, round storage rules issued, but the market is worried about the impact of the bag inspection of the cotton out of the warehouse speed, the price of small open low after continuing to create a new high, spot.

Continue to rise.

In April 21st, the relevant departments stressed that the public inspection of bags did not affect the speed of the warehousing, and the price continued to rise. The price was now on a slight concussion. On the same day, Zheng issued a risk warning letter to the cotton market, "to remind investors to operate prudently and rationally invest".

Everbright futures analyst Xu Aixia analysis, from the spot price point of view, from the beginning of April 21st to April 21st, spot price rose at 500-700 yuan / ton, in the last week of April, with the coming of the round, some cotton enterprises quoted prices loosened, and the supply began to increase.

Overall, the 3-4 month Xinjiang internal cotton business is now rebounding a large number of sales of lint, and capital and sales pressure has been greatly reduced.

It is reasonable for cotton price to rebound unexpectedly.

There are some business people, for example, the real estate cotton in Shandong as an example, this year's Shandong real estate cotton length, strength, color and other comprehensive quality is not inferior to Xinjiang cotton, but the price is lower than Xinjiang cotton 1000 yuan / ton.

This is not normal. The price after the rebound has corrected the deviation of the price to a certain extent.