The Gap Between The High Debt Rate And The Financial Crisis Is Still Very Large.

China's current situation is similar to that of the United States, which was heavily indebted in 2007 - 2008.

In recent years, many media and experts believe that China's debt rate is too high, or will inevitably erupt the financial crisis.

The debt rate here refers to the ratio of total debt to total GDP in a country.

According to data from the official website of the people's Bank of China, the Federal Reserve and international agencies, not only China's debt rate is about 240%, but also about 269% of the United States and 270% of Europe and the United States.

The debt rate of developed countries is as high as 200%.

In China, the state certainly needs to pay attention to the risk of debt scale development too fast, but at the same time we must see that China's savings rate is high, the time deposits plus demand deposits reach 140 trillion, while the development of equity and stock markets can not be too fast.

90% of the financing channels for businesses and residents depend on bank credit.

So in China

Size is inevitable.

The question is, is China's credit based high debt ratio more risky than other countries such as the US, Japan and Europe? Is it more urgent?

At the end of 2015, the total GDP of China was 67 trillion and 700 billion yuan.

The balance of loans of financial institutions is 99 trillion yuan, and all kinds of bonds include treasury bonds, local bonds, corporate bonds and financial bonds 48 trillion and 800 billion yuan.

In addition, it is difficult to accurately calculate the bank's off balance sheet financing, trust balance, brokerage business management of about 30 trillion.

China's debt rate generally ranges from about 240% to 250%.

The main difference between the United States and the United States is that the total amount of GDP in the United States at the end of 2015 was US $17 trillion and 800 billion.

The balance of loans of US commercial banks is 8 trillion and 500 billion US dollars, and the scale of US bond market is as high as 39 trillion and 500 billion US dollars, including treasury bonds, federal agency bonds and municipal bonds, which amount to US $18 trillion.

The US debt rate is as high as 269%.

The main difference between Chinese and American debt structure is that China is mainly credit debt.

It is more than 6 times the national debt.

The United States is mainly treasury bonds.

National debt (including local debt) exceeds 1 times the total amount of loans, and also exceeds the total GDP.

The characteristics of credit debt and national debt risk are different.

Credit debt is a micro enterprise and individual credit default risk every day, but not the same as systemic risk.

As long as the bad rate of all commercial banks is at a certain level, for example, 3 to 5%, it is difficult to break out the system crisis.

At present, all commercial banks in China are about 1.5% of the five class classification rate, which is lower than the average level of commercial banks in the world.

China is taking the debt to equity swap and asset securitization, through professional Asset Management Co stripping bad assets, inventory, SOE reform and other measures, the purpose is to control and reduce the bad rate.

It is worth mentioning that before China entered WTO WTO in 2001, the average rate of commercial banks in China was averaging 20% and 40% according to "one more than two stays" or five level classification.

Through reform and various measures, China's commercial banks have gone through a systemic crisis.

And the risk of national debt is different. It does not allow any default risk that a maturity bond cannot be paid.

Once it appears, it is systemic risk, that is, the financial crisis.

From this point of view, the debt risk and debt crisis in the US are bigger and more urgent than in China.

Moodie of the United States, the S & P Rating firm rated the US sovereign credit rating as 3a, much higher than China's two A, and also reduced.

Obviously unfair.