Polyester Consumption Still Has Support For PTA.

In April, driven by consumption in the peak season, PTA market entered.

At the same time, the overall price performance of the market was strong. In late March, it was a breakthrough in the strong performance of crude oil.

However, in May, the domestic commodity futures price headed by the black line overall fell, and the PTA price also followed the market callback. The PTA main 1609 contract callback rate was close to 5% within the month.

The author believes that the PTA fundamentals are neutral, but if there is uncertainty in the trend of crude oil, it is advisable to maintain a weak short-term thinking.

From the production point of view, PTA processing profit is good, and the factory operation condition has been continuously improved. This is also the fundamental reason for some factories postponing planned maintenance in the near future.

According to the operation of the plant, the PTA plant at the end of April was restarted with the annual production capacity of 1 million 200 thousand tons and the HP Petrochemical line (annual capacity of 1 million 100 thousand tons).

As of May 9th, domestic

The combined load increased to 72.8%, and spot market supply is expected to gain a small increment.

It is understood that at present, Yangzi Petrochemical 600 thousand tons, Luoyang Petrochemical 325 thousand tons, Fujian Jialong 600 thousand tons PTA device is in the parking repair phase, and plans to restart in mid May.

Next, there are overhaul plans for Zhuhai BP110 million tons and 1 million 200 thousand Lane PTA facilities in three lane. If the above devices can be implemented as planned, it is expected that the increments generated in early May will be offset.

Recently, however, the PTA factory has significantly improved its production profits, and there is a general expectation of delayed maintenance.

Last week, the Canadian fire has caused more than 1 million barrels / day of crude oil production to stop production, which will affect the supply and demand in North America, especially in the western part of the United States in the short term.

The author defined the impact of Canadian fire as a short-term factor. The uncertainty is that the reduction time of the post disaster personnel may lead to a longer than expected production. It is recommended that the price difference between the selected heavy crude oil in western Canada and the West Texas Intermediate crude oil in the western part of Canada and the changes in the crude oil inventory in the Cushing area and the central and western part of the country will be recommended.

The focus of recent crude oil is still on the supply side, which needs to continue to focus on Iraq.

The crude oil production in the United Arab Emirates and Libya has declined and resumed production process, and the pattern of excess supply in the medium term has not changed.

This is also confirmed by the crude oil position data of the Intercontinental Exchange. As of May 3rd, the net multi position of the management fund in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 6.77%.

Combined with the PX market, the PX fundamentals have not changed significantly in the near future. Many devices in the Asian region are still in the maintenance period, and the PX price trend is mainly affected by the upstream and downstream.

In May, there was no result of PX negotiations in Asia, and the acceptance rate of downstream PTA factories to PX was very low.

Therefore, compared with the previous stage, the upstream cost has been weakened or weakened.

The author believes that although the current situation of polyester start-up is still relatively stable and the signs of load decline have not yet appeared, the uncertainty of the terminal market demand weakens the uncertainty of the pmission of polyester consumption, and we should pay attention to the sustainability of the high load operation of polyester at the later stage.

The downstream polyester market is still in the peak season of seasonal demand, and there is certain support for the consumption of raw material PTA.

From the current polyester plant operation situation, polyester plant comprehensive operating rate remained at around 85%, compared with the previous peak season commencement stage.

As the price of polyester products has increased the pressure on the terminal market, the profit and loss of the bomb and weaving industry has disappeared.

As of May 9th, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72%, compared with 80% in the same period last year.