The Tight Supply Of PTA Will Gradually Ease In May.

At present, the processing fee of PTA disk is still available. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether the three lane and BP maintenance will continue to delay in the first half of May. If the delay continues, combined with the 600 thousand tonnes of capacity of Fujian Jialong and the restart of 600 thousand ton capacity of Yangzi Petrochemical, the load level may continue to rise next week, and the supply level is expected to go up. The load level of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has begun to decline, and the weaving mill has a lack of confidence in the future market. The wait-and-see attitude is obvious.

5 PTA after mid month,

Load level or bottom up, and downstream polyester, terminal weaving will gradually enter the off-season. Before the G20 summit, printing and dyeing industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang area will also affect the terminal demand. The tight supply of PTA will gradually ease in May. In June, it will be converted from the current inventory to accumulative inventory, and in May is in the pition period.

This week, the price of PTA futures fell, and the main 1609 contract fell from above 5000 last week to 4800 yuan / ton above the level, the lowest to 4790 this week, the price is affected by the surrounding commodity market, especially the weak atmosphere of the black plate.

Disk price fell below the 20 day moving average, the technology side turned weak, concerned about the 60 day average line support.

Due to the restart of Ningbo Taihua and Hon Bang petrochemical production capacity, PTA load has increased this week, the average operating rate increased to 66.4% this week, up 4.8% compared with last week, and the real time operation rate is 65.7% (the base of production is increased to 48 million 840 thousand tons). If the long-term production capacity is stopped (12 million 700 thousand tons), the current real time will be real-time.

At 88.8%.

Next week, it is possible to overhaul the device: three lane (600370, buy) Helen Petrochemical 1 million 200 thousand tons capacity, BP capacity of 1 million 100 thousand tons of production capacity, in addition, yam Shing Hua line 1 has the intention to overhaul in May, but the specific circumstances depend on the market.

In addition, the domestic commodity market is weakening, and the US crude oil continues to rise.

The upward trend of the disk is expected to end, and the medium and long term shocks are expected to be empty.

But in the short term, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the implementation of the maintenance plan of several large factories such as three lane allocations and BP. The spot market is still in the state of going out of stock, and the US economic data is not optimistic so that the possibility of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve will be reduced in the coming months. The US dollar will be weak or provide a certain support for the commodities. The short-term PTA price or the risk of repeated shocks will still need to be cautious.