The Future Of China'S Economy Is Far Beyond Expectations: Great Changes And New Impetus

The two important condition for the rapid growth of China's economy is the next step of China's economy. The first problem should be discussed from the "new normal".

We should have a correct understanding of the new normal. "The new normal" is to act according to the laws of the economy.

For example, in the past few years, China's economy has been growing at a high speed, and sustained high speed growth is not consistent with the law of economic development, nor can it last long.

It is for this reason that we have pferred to the growth at medium and high speed, which is in line with the current situation in China.

The rapid growth brings five adverse effects: first, excessive consumption of resources; two, ecological deterioration; three, overcapacity in some industries; four, low economic returns; and five, in order to promote rapid growth, we miss the best opportunity for technological innovation and structural adjustment.

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the developed countries, including the United States, Germany and Japan, all try to find the way of future economic development from technological innovation, and we are busy with high speed growth and delayed time, so this is an important issue that we should bear in mind.

The downward pressure on the economy is due to second problems in various aspects.

In addition, an important performance of the new normal is the rapid growth of our economy.

Generally speaking, 7% or even 6%~7% is growing at medium and high speed. It is also not easy to grow at medium or high speed, and it will not achieve rapid growth in medium and high speed because it needs important conditions:

One is structural adjustment; the two is innovation.

Without innovation and structural adjustment, it is impossible to grow at high speed.

First, we need to analyze the formation of downward pressure. What should we do under the pressure of economic downfall? First we should clarify the problem and then find ways to find out the solution.

This is not the problem of growth rate itself, but the slowing down of growth.

In addition, we should also see that it is too expensive to maintain high speed growth for a long time. Our current problem is the repeated construction in the process of rapid growth in the past few years, including the low level of redundant construction, plus the sequelae caused by the superposition of various factors such as local capacity overcapacity.

One of the biggest problems of excess capacity is consumption and the waste of resources.

In the past few years, our rapid growth is actually a waste of resource growth and inefficient growth.

Second, from an economic point of view, the steady growth of the economy depends on whether the base is getting bigger or smaller.

Today our base is bigger and bigger than 10 years ago, and the difficulty of increasing 1% will be greater. This situation is not sustainable, so there is a decreasing process. The rapid growth in the past few years has also brought difficulties to our continued growth today.

Third, the instability of the international market has caused some adverse effects on our exports and foreign trade.

We encountered two difficulties: Japan is our rival in high-tech products; Southeast Asian countries are our rivals in low-end products, and their labor productivity is lower than ours, but their wages are cheaper.

Therefore, in such an environment, we should realize that today's difficulties are related to the international economic situation.

Fourth, we must understand that after the downward pressure on the economy has increased, why is it difficult to reverse the situation? Structural adjustment is not an easy task. So many overinvestment has already been formed. Now it is not easy to turn around.

Therefore, carrying out structural adjustment must have the determination to make up the mind and decide whether to tolerate the losses caused by structural adjustment. Insisting is very important. If we can not persist, we will lose all our efforts, so we must recognize the arduous nature of structural adjustment.

Fifth, technological innovation.

Technological innovation can not be impatient. The technological innovation that can really occupy the market needs years of accumulation.

For example, Shenzhen, HUAWEI did not develop at once, it is now a harvest period, but HUAWEI also realized that it can not stop, but also continue to innovate.

At present, there is a topic of "Internet + innovation".

The Internet is of great significance, but we are still in the initial stage, and we are still exploring. No one knows where the Internet will push us. This is also an unforeseen problem in the economic field.

But this is a trend. The Internet will play a huge role. It will show many new technologies to make structural adjustment more smoothly. But whether it can boost the development of the economy will undergo a period of tests.

Because of this, we should adhere to two points in dealing with the downward pressure of the economy: first, structural adjustment and structural adjustment must be carried out; two, technological innovation should take the road of mass innovation and entrepreneurship.

We must be firm in our thinking, do not fantasizing, nor talk about the old tune. The ups and downs of the economy will not do us any good.

Therefore, we have to talk about macroeconomic regulation and control, and focus on directional regulation, because directional regulation is structural regulation and attention to fine tuning and pre adjustment, so that we can adapt to the downward pressure of the current economic operation.

In the future, high investment does not necessarily lead to high employment. The third problem is conceptual change. High investment does not necessarily lead to high employment. This is a new problem we face.

In the past, new jobs were seen in economic growth, with high economic growth and new jobs.

This concept is consistent with the situation in the past, because China's economy is still running at a relatively low level, but now the situation has changed, because China will achieve economic growth and hi-tech development in industrial upgrading, so when it comes to employment, the problem of employment can not be solved by massive investment.

Recently, I visited the enterprise, and the director of the enterprise told me at the construction site that they had invested a lot. I asked him how much employment you have increased. His answer is very simple. No one will increase, and he will have to lay off workers.

Why do I ask? He said that the investment is different from the past. The investment in technological innovation is completely modernized.

For example, the use of robots instead of labor force is efficient, but without increasing employment, old workers are rearranged, others retire, and younger workers need to be retrained. After coming in, they first have to be a skilled worker, which is different from before.

I ask other enterprises how to solve the current employment problem. They say it is not to rely on high investment to solve, but to mobilize the enthusiasm of the people, so that they can start their own businesses, and entrepreneurship will increase employment.

There are many departments to disperse, a department is an innovation unit, a group of people in their work, development, making money.

Now many people's ideas have changed, that is, from the rural labor force, and do not advocate going out to work.

First of all, learn technology, then there will be more needs for you, you can start your own business, and even go home to start your own business.

Therefore, there is a great enthusiasm for entrepreneurship in the private sector, which is one of the main ways to solve employment in China.

It is expected that 20 years later, office buildings will not be needed and staff will be employed at home. Therefore, the concept of employment needs to be changed. This means that solving employment is not necessarily based on high investment.

Of course, although technology is improving, appropriate infrastructure investment and manpower training are still needed.

Money shortage is mainly a fourth problem caused by loans. High interest rates may not be able to curb inflation. This is a new point of view.

The traditional view is that inflation is caused by too much investment and too much consumption. Under such circumstances, inflation can be solved by tightening up.

In the early 1970s, there was stagflation in the United States. On the one hand, it was inflation. On the other hand, unemployment was unemployment.

Coexist.

At that time, mainstream economists were all at a loss, because according to the traditional theory, the expansion of aggregate demand would lead to inflation and unemployment would be caused by the small total demand, so inflation and unemployment could not exist simultaneously.

At that time, American president Nixon looked for mainstream economists and asked them to find ways to study why stagflation existed. The conclusion was that there were two monopolistic forces at that time: a monopoly power was a trade union, and a trade union believed that it could control workers' actions. It insisted that wages must be rigid, that is, they could not rise and fall, and wages would go down. Strike power was also a multinational company.

These two kinds of rigidity exist at the same time, just like children playing seesaw games. Economists advocate holding children. If two hands hold two children together, wages and prices will not jump.

In fact, this is totally contrary to the law of market economy, but Nixon accepted it. He implemented the new economic policy, which is the famous wage freeze and price control measures in the United States in 1970s. But when it failed to go on, Nixon's policy went bankrupt.

In 1980s, President Reagan accepted the supply school's point of view. Because the problem was on the supply side, more new products could be generated through innovation, and the economic growth could be driven by the concentration of innovation results. Therefore, the economic development of the United States was out of stagnation after 80s, and the inflation problem was also solved.

This experience tells us that we should not be short-sighted.

Today's inflation is caused by too much investment and too much demand. Therefore, the investment of the investment should lower interest rates and lower the interest rate, so as to adapt to the new economic growth.

How did the "money shortage" come? I went to several cities in Zhejiang to investigate this issue. It is not a lack of money supply. M1 (narrow money, namely cash plus demand deposits) and M2 (broad money, namely, cash plus demand deposits + time deposits) all supply quite a lot.

"Money shortage" is mainly because of the difficulty of loans. Banks feel that private enterprises can not rely on loans, and the problem of loans can not be recovered. Therefore, they find loans from state-owned large enterprises that are trustworthy. But these state-owned enterprises do not need so much money and loan interest rates are low. So what should I do? Turn the money out.

If private enterprises fail to get loans, they will borrow one part of the money from state-owned enterprises.

In addition, many people do not lend themselves to their loans, so a popular saying in Zhejiang is "cash is king", that is, the most important thing for an enterprise is to hold cash in hand. If there is cash, there is everything, so that the capital chain will not break, the industrial chain will be smooth, and investment opportunities will be ready.

In the end, every household is a super normal reserve.

So big that M1 and M2 didn't change, but they were still nervous.

Therefore, if inflation happens in China, we must consider it in many ways.

The market is the fifth problem that can be created. Any industry should know that the market can be created. This is a new proposition.

I visited in Cangzhou, Hebei. Suning County in Cangzhou specializes in fur. Some people say that business is not good now. Fur sold mainly to Russia, but because the rouble has no purchasing power, Suning fur is much cheaper than Europe.

Finally, I give them some advice: one is to make products more personalized.

Because the current consumption is not the same as it was decades ago, in the early 1990s or even the end of 90s, it belonged to wave style consumption, which was fashionable. But now it is not. Now the consumption is personalized.

The two is "make services more humane".

You deal with customers, and you look as if you were a gift to me.

The three is to "brand abroad".

At present, China's brand has not been fully established, and the brand is built up by years of products and quality.

The four is to "keep consumers in China".

If we can buy a good toilet lid in the country, how can people go abroad to buy and keep the consumers in China? This is a solution to our problem. Our FTA is solving this problem.

At Peking University Guanghua School of management, I often give a case to graduate students, a factory that produces wooden combs, and four salesmen, each with a batch of samples, to sell in the designated monk temple.

The first salesman did not sell, because the monk said that bald headed did not need to comb.

The second salesmen sold dozens of them. He told the monks that combs had other functions besides combing hair, such as scalp, itching, beauty and so on, so they sold dozens of them in monk temple.

The third salesmen sold hundreds of them. He observed that there were many pilgrims in the temple, and the incense was very strong, but the pilgrims had a bit of hair disorder after they knocked their heads, and the ashes fell to their hair. It was a bit dirty. So he went to the abbot, said that the temple was full of incense and fire, and the pilgrims were so enthusiastic. They should care about them in the temple, and put some combs in front of each Buddhist hall to make them feel that they were more diligent in caring for them in the temple.

So he sold hundreds of them.

The fourth salesmen sold thousands of posts, and he chatted directly to the abbot, saying that there was a personnel relationship to get through in the temple. Wooden combs were the best gifts. They could engrave "Buddha in mind" and "good fortune as the foundation" on wooden combs, and turned them into a business card in the temple, so that he sold thousands of wooden combs.

This story tells us that the market can be created, and that after the creation of the market, the function of the product has changed, and the new function can be used instead of the old one, so that the market can be created.

Today, we have to go out, we must let the product add new functions, so that products meet the new needs of consumers, so that we can open up and create new markets.

The sixth issue of the social and human perspective in the era of "Internet +" is the problem of economic people and social people.

All the previous economics books talked about economic man hypothesis.

The hypothesis of economic man is that people consider from the lowest cost and the maximum benefit, but today's world is changing. The hypothesis of economic man is not enough. The assumption of social man is that people do not consider from the perspective of economic man, but also consider from social people.

For example, A and B can be carried out in two places.

In A, the investment profit is high, the cost is small, the investment profit of B is not as high as A, and the cost is larger than that of A. Therefore, from the perspective of economic person, people will invest in A, but some people think about it from B, and are willing to invest in B.

Why invest in B? For a variety of reasons, the first reason is that B is my hometown. I have already developed. I am rich, but my hometown is so poor. I am willing to invest and run factories there to solve the problem of laid-off. This is from the perspective of my hometown.

Another person may think so: I have lived there since I was little, and I studied and worked there, and many people looked down upon me, saying that I was not promising, so I left there to start my own business. Now that I have achieved some success, I will come back to show you whether I am so hopeless in your eyes. I will come back to run a big business and change your past prejudices.

Or someone who has lived here for some time and has done some regretful things, may feel guilty and regretful today, but now he has succeeded in running a factory there to make atonement.

Pay attention to "third adjustments" - the seventh problem of moral strength is to discover and make good use of third adjustments.

The first adjustment we talked about in the past was market regulation. The market was an invisible hand that was regulated by market rules. Later, it was regulated by the government, adjusted by the visible hand of the government, and regulated by laws, regulations and policies.

Are there third kinds of adjustment?

The emergence of the market was thousands of years ago, and there was a commodity exchange between the tribes before the market came into being.

The government's adjustment is even later.

But before the advent of market regulation and government regulation, human survival and reproduction are regulated by moral forces.

With the regulation of the market and the government, the moral regulation also plays a role, as the saying goes, "small mess in the city, a mess in the countryside", a small turmoil, the rural people running in the city, relatives and friends, the city is more safe, so the city is in a small mess; the mess in the countryside, the large unrest city people run to the countryside, but the market is out of order, the government is paralyzed, but the human still survives and the society continues to develop.

There is no market, no government, because there is a moral power to regulate.

We should pay attention to third kinds of regulation. Moral power is cultural adjustment. Cultural adjustment is everyone's self-discipline and public rules.

The construction of community culture and the construction of enterprise culture have promoted the self-discipline of human moral strength, which is very useful for us in the future.

The eighth problem of paying attention to the effect of resource allocation and increasing the value of state-owned economy is to attach importance to the effect of resource allocation.

For many years, the production utility studied in economics is the ratio of input to output, and the input remains unchanged.

Output increases and production efficiency increases. Assuming production remains unchanged, input is reduced, and production efficiency is increased. Therefore, production efficiency is important.

After 1930s, there appeared second kinds of efficiency, that is, resource allocation efficiency. The premise of resource allocation efficiency is to assume that investment is established, and the effect of mediation is also achieved. It is to configure the M effect in A mode and to produce M+1 effect in B mode.

After coming out of this concept, there are two kinds of efficiency coexistence. The production efficiency is focused on the enterprise management and production department management in the micro field. The efficiency of resource allocation is focused on the macro aspect and the macro aspect can improve the efficiency of resource allocation. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the improvement of resource allocation efficiency in the future.

For example, does the spillover of state-owned assets improve efficiency? Can it be better configured? In another way, if it is more efficient than it is now, it will increase more state-owned assets.

Finally, we can draw two conclusions about the future of the economy: first, its change is far more than we expected; two, it is a sharp change and may be a change in acceleration.

Under such circumstances, it is hard to predict what the economy will look like in 30 years, especially 50 years later.

Is there any difference between blue collar and white collar? How much money will be used? Will the size of the business become smaller? Will anyone buy cars in the future?

We should also think about it, because the major changes in this economy may be the first whimsical, but the whimsical may eventually become a reality.