Central Bank To Stabilize The Situation: Steady Monetary Policy Orientation Has Not Changed

After adjusting for seasonal factors and factors such as local government bond issuance and debt replacement, the total volume of money and credit and the scale of social financing is still stable and normal. The liquidity of the banking system is reasonable and abundant, and all kinds of market interest rates remain at a low level.

The central bank pointed out that in April, a small increase in Renminbi loans was caused by the accelerated replacement of local government stock debt. Secondly, from seasonal factors, loans in the first quarter tend to increase, and bank project reserves are consumed in large quantities, making April a traditional loan month. This year has continued this pattern of seasonal change.

In addition, the central bank also said that risk management and control of bad loans and write offs also have a certain impact. In the context of increasing pressure on asset quality control, bank lending is more prudent, especially in the area of excess capacity. Some banks in April concentrated on the verification of tens of billions of bad loans.

In response to M2's year-on-year growth rate, the central bank said the main factors were:

First, the increase in fiscal deposits is due to the lack of statistics in M2, which has a contraction effect on the growth of total money. In April, fiscal deposits increased by 931 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 821 billion 700 million yuan compared with the same period last year, which affected the M2 growth rate by about 0.64 percentage points. This is mainly related to the massive issuance of local government bonds and the impact of "camp to increase" on the progress of tax revenue, which is a temporary factor. In the future, with the appropriation of financial funds, its impact will gradually disappear.

Two, the growth of interbank business has slowed down. Equity and other investments increased by less than 119 billion 500 million yuan in April. This is related to the marked cooling of the stock market in April compared with the same period last year, and the regulatory authorities further regulating the transfer of the credit assets of the banking institutions. Considering the above factors, the current money supply growth is still steady and fast.

The central bank stressed that from the perspective of the coming months, we should pay attention to the fact that as the stock market fluctuated in the two or three quarter of last year, more liquidity was injected to maintain market stability, and the M2 base of that time increased significantly. Therefore, we initially predicted that the growth rate of M2 would still decrease considerably over the next few months.

The central bank also said that this is mainly a special cardinal effect in the interference of the year-on-year data, does not represent the real growth rate. With the gradual disappearance of cardinal effect, M2 growth will pick up after 9 and October.

　　 Central Bank It also said that the next stage will continue to implement a sound monetary policy, maintain flexibility and moderation, timely adjust the fine tune, enhance pertinence and effectiveness, do well in the management of aggregate demand compatible with supply side structural reforms, create an appropriate monetary and financial environment, and promote a steady growth of the economy.

Q: in April, the scale of RMB loans and social financing increased less than that in March, and there was a slight increase compared with the same period last year. What are the main reasons? Does this mean a decline in support for the real economy?

A: in April, RMB loans increased by 555 billion 600 million yuan, less than 817 billion 300 million yuan and 152 billion 300 million yuan respectively from last month and the same period last year. The scale of social financing increased to 751 billion yuan, less than 1 trillion and 650 billion yuan and 307 billion 200 million yuan respectively from last month and the same period last year.

In April, the growth of RMB loans was small. First, it was affected by the replacement of local government stock debt. According to our preliminary data, in April this year, the scale of loans to replace local financing platforms was no less than 350 billion yuan, which increased substantially compared to 2 and March, while no replacement loans were made in April last year. Local government stock loans are replaced by bonds. Loan increment But in fact, it does not reduce the scale of financing. If this part of the replacement factor is restored, new loans in April will exceed 900 billion yuan, an increase of about 200 billion yuan over the same period last year. Secondly, from the seasonal factors, loans in the first quarter tend to increase more, and bank project reserves are consumed in large quantities, making April a traditional loan month. Basically, there is only an increase of 50-60% in March. This year has continued this pattern of seasonal change. In addition, risk management and control and bad loan verification also have some influence. In the context of increasing pressure on asset quality control, bank lending is more prudent, especially in the area of excess capacity. Some banks in April concentrated on the verification of tens of billions of bad loans.

The scale of social financing is less than that of loans. Besides the impact of loan changes, it is also related to the decline in corporate bond financing. Net corporate bond financing in April was 209 billion 600 million yuan, less than 509 billion 400 million yuan from last month. This is mainly due to the recent increase in the bond market default and the delayed issuance of debt, but it is still more than 48 billion yuan over the same period last year. It is worth noting that the current scale of social financing does not include local government bonds. From the point of view of our country, the financing obtained by local governments through issuing bonds is also largely used to support the real economy. If we add the net financing amount of local government bonds in April to 1 trillion and 60 billion yuan, the scale of social financing will reach 1 trillion and 820 billion yuan, up from 757 billion 400 million yuan over the same period. Thus, considering the seasonal changes and the issuance of local government bonds, debt replacement and other factors, the overall financial support for the real economy is still strong.

Q: at present, sound. monetary policy Is there any change in the orientation?

Answer: the orientation of sound monetary policy has not changed. After adjusting for seasonal factors and factors such as the issuance of local government bonds and debt replacement, the total amount of money and credit and the scale of social financing are still stable and normal. The liquidity of the banking system is reasonable and abundant, and all kinds of market interest rates remain at a low level. In the next stage, the people's Bank of China will continue to implement a sound monetary policy, maintain flexibility and moderation, adjust the fine tune in time, enhance pertinence and effectiveness, do well in the management of aggregate demand compatible with supply side structural reforms, create an appropriate monetary and financial environment, and promote steady economic growth.

Q: what is the reason why the broad money M2 growth rate dropped in April over last month? How will the M2 growth rate change in the next few months?

A: at the end of 4, the balance of M2 was 144 trillion and 500 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8% over the same period last year, 0.6 percentage points lower than the end of last month. In April, the factors affecting the growth of M2 year-on-year growth were mainly as follows: first, the substantial increase in fiscal deposits, because of the lack of statistics in M2, a contraction effect on the growth of total money. In April, fiscal deposits increased by 931 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 821 billion 700 million yuan compared with the same period last year, which affected the M2 growth rate by about 0.64 percentage points. This is mainly related to the massive issuance of local government bonds and the impact of "camp to increase" on the progress of tax revenue, which is a temporary factor. In the future, with the appropriation of financial funds, its impact will gradually disappear. Two, the growth of interbank business has slowed down. Equity and other investments increased by less than 119 billion 500 million yuan in April. This is related to the marked cooling of the stock market in April compared with the same period last year, and the regulatory authorities further regulating the transfer of the credit assets of the banking institutions. Considering the above factors, the current money supply growth is still steady and fast.

Looking from the situation in the coming months, we should pay attention to the fact that as the stock market fluctuated in the two or three quarter of last year, more liquidity was injected to maintain the stability of the market and the M2 base of that time increased significantly. Therefore, we initially predicted that the growth rate of the M2 would still decrease considerably over the next few months in the normal growth of the company. But this is mainly a special cardinal effect in the interference of the year-on-year data, does not represent the real growth rate. With the gradual disappearance of cardinal effect, M2 growth will pick up after 9 and October.