Market Analysis: Why Does Long Staple Cotton Not Rise Or Fall?

The near future,

Out of the way different from fine cotton.

The price of fine cotton is steadily rising. As of May 18th, the 3128B class cotton prices in Shandong, Binzhou, Dezhou and other places were 12350-12500 yuan / ton, and the 3128C class price was 12050-12200 yuan / ton, all of which rose 50 yuan / ton compared with 17 days.

Talking about the reasons for the rise, market participants believe that with the continuation of storage time, the cost of cotton is rising.

The cost is upside down 500-600 yuan / ton, individual reaches 1000 yuan / ton above, under the big background of the national cotton storage and pportation wheel, Zheng cotton still does not fall, and also increases the confidence of the fine wool cotton market.

But long staple cotton does not rise or fall, many industries shout "weird".

As of 18, a manufacturer in Shandong introduced that the local 137 class a long staple cotton price was quoted at 21600 yuan / ton, and the 237 grade price was 20500 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than that of 17 days.

According to it, during this period, one side of the national cotton store was hot, while the long staple cotton was cold.

According to market participants, there are the following reasons:

First, the long staple cotton has been seriously oversupplied.

In 2015, the area of long staple cotton in Xinjiang Akesu area was as high as 1 million mu, and its total output also exceeded 100 thousand tons, reaching the historical height.

In addition, some of the long staple cotton was not digested in 2014, about 5000-6000 tons, so the total supply of long staple cotton in this year is 105 thousand tons.

According to past data, the annual consumption of long staple cotton is about 65 thousand tons, even if the demand increases slightly this year, the optimistic estimate is only about 70 thousand tons.

That is to say, the supply and demand of long staple cotton is more than 35 thousand tons.

Two, the market players are in a state of panic.

Recently, many long staple cotton manufacturers have complained about their hardships. Cotton can not be sold for a long time, stock is overloaded, and prices continue to fall in the late period.

It is difficult for the loan to be withdrawn from the loan, the loan is difficult to repay and the interest is increasing.

A cotton merchant in Hebei said that more than 500 tons of long staple cotton are still in storage, and the fund is about 10000000 yuan.

"No matter how expensive the price is, it can be sold well."

A market personage even said that now textile enterprises concentrate their efforts on storage, and long staple cotton and spot goods seem to have been left behind.

Three, output will remain high this year.

As of April 25th, the spring sowing of cotton in Akesu, Xinjiang has been completed. According to feedback from cotton growers, the area has not changed much since last year.

Especially for long staple cotton, the market is expected to have an area of about 900 thousand mu this year, with an estimated output of 10.5-11 million tons.

The situation of oversupply of long staple cotton will be intensified.

Four, the textile market as a whole is weak, and the demand for enterprises has not changed significantly.

Recently, due to

In the low season of the year, yarn sales are stagnant all over the country.

A person in charge of Binzhou enterprises in Shandong reflects that at present, the price of combing 80S of 100% long staple cotton is 56500 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as last week.

However, sales are still dominated by old customers. However, because of the high cost of raw materials and the quality of raw materials, the cost of spinning is rising, and the quality of yarn is poor. On the one hand, enterprises choose high-quality Australian cotton instead of medium and low quality long staple cotton, and on the other hand, choose quality long staple cotton to maintain production.

In addition, the low price of the medium and low count yarn in the whole market is also reduced, causing the textile enterprises to be generally worried about the future market. Many enterprises have to reduce production capacity and maintain production on a single basis, which is unfavorable to the sales of upstream raw materials.

To sum up, the market expects that the long staple cotton will fall easily in the late part of this year.

Still more enterprises, tighten up sales inventory, decompression loan repayment is the best policy.