A Shares Plummeted PK Property Market Rose

Following the "long bear" from 2001 to 2005, A shares have recently taken the lead in the global stock market. Even the news that the Fed may raise interest rates in June has been turned into bad news.

The typical empty thinking is nothing more than the latest view of CITIC Securities strategy team. "Credit (orderly breaking rigid payment) and exchange rate (post devaluation of RMB risk)" will become an important factor to suppress the risk preference of A shares.

According to its forecast, the Shanghai composite index is running at a low point of 2350 in the second half of the year.

Every snowflake is responsible for avalanche.

But if you want to

The 3 version is attributed to the depreciation of the renminbi. It seems that the central bank has to say that this is a black pot.

From a macro perspective,

The rigid payment is broken. At present, it is still only an individual event, and it is difficult to become a regional or even overall risk.

The central bank's monetary policy analysis group recently issued a statement that "monetary policy is generally stable and slightly relaxed, which is objective and appropriate", which means that the stock market is not a bad fund but a confidence.

The M2 growth rate accelerated in the first half of the year, and the central bank attributed it to the two rapid fall in the stock market. The central bank had to provide liquidity support, and admitted that the practice was "helpless, but there seems to be no better way."

From the point of view of the central bank, if the stock market continues to plunge, the central bank or a new monetary stimulus policy is introduced.

At the exchange rate level, the rise and fall of a country's exchange rate may not be directly proportional to the rise or fall of the stock market.

In 2003, the US dollar index plunged 14.66%, the S & P 500 index increased 26.38%; in 2008, the US dollar index rose 5.84%, the S & P index fell 38.49%, and the US property market also collapsed during the same period.

Similarly, the yen has recently risen sharply, and Japanese stocks have been dropping.

But it has become an excuse for US stocks to become stronger.

The key is to see whether exchange rate fluctuations are conducive to economic growth.

In general, the depreciation of the renminbi will help foreign trade oriented export and economic recovery, and the impact on the stock market may not be bad.

If the exchange rate collapses, the state credit will go bankrupt, and all asset prices will collapse.

Strangely, since June last year, the property market in the first tier cities has started to run from small jog to run wild (the positive effect of exchange rate effect). A shares have started the 3 version of a rare stock crash, which has quickly changed from leveraged cattle to leveraged bears (exchange rate collapse theory).

Furthermore, it is hard to say that the real estate abandoning shares are cheaper because of the cheaper valuation of the house, but the macro-control policy (inventory deleveraging and incremental supply), which boosted the self actualization of the housing price expectation.

In contrast, the stock market is still trapped in the system bear market. IPO and the size of non expansion are stock plus leverage, incremental funds are still leveraged (over-the-counter funding constraints, standardize insurance trust market).

Now, the property market in the first tier cities restarts a deleveraging storm, which should be good for the stock market.

Personal judgment, the national macroeconomic regulation and control policy has been balanced in development, stability and reform, economic stabilization or emphasis on reform and pformation.

The backswing in this regulation is nothing more than an amendment to the economic train, and the stock market's reaction to the "authoritative" view in May is obviously excessive.

The head of the Ministry of Finance recently said that in order to implement the task of "leveraged" reform of the central government, the government can stage leverage and support enterprises to gradually "de leverage".

This statement has hedged the view of "authoritative people" interviewed by people's daily, which means that fiscal expenditure may still be leveraged to support the weak recovery of the economy.