China'S Stock Market Bond Market Stability, Britain'S Early Warning Of European Influence

Gold rebounded sharply and European stock markets plummeted.

Last week, the European stock market plummeted, the US and Japanese stock markets were consolidated, emerging markets such as Korea and India were mixed, oil, industrial metals and agricultural products went up and down, gold rose sharply, and the bond market of China's stock market was stable.

Britain's early warning of Euro withdrawal.

Last week, a poll showed that 55% of the respondents supported the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union, leading the largest proportion of the number of people backing the European Union since the polls.

William Hill, one of the largest Gambling company in the world, reduced the British withdrawal rate from 1 to 2.75 to 1 and 2.2, leaving the European odds 1 to 0.29 and 1 to 0.36.

The risk of Euro retreat led to the decline of the pound and the euro, the rise of the US dollar and the sharp fall in European stock market.

The economy is slow and stable.

In May, China's export growth rate dropped to -4.1%, of which most of the economy's export growth slowed down, reflecting the still low external demand.

In May, the growth rate of imports decreased by -0.4% over the same period last year, narrowing sharply compared with the -10.9% in April, reflecting the improvement in domestic demand.

The surge in imports from Hongkong reflects partly the continuing risk of outflow and a slight overvaluation of imports.

There are still many variables in the bond market and blocked credit financing - the 173rd issue of Haitong weekly communication and thinking (Jiang Chao, Zhou Xia).

Last week, the average interest rate of treasury bonds rose to 1bp, AAA and AA, and the average interest rate of corporate bonds was down to 1bp. The interest rate of urban bond investment was basically flat, and the CSI bond index fell by 1.16%.

Interest rate shocks.

Britain's strengthening of the US dollar helped to exacerbate the pressure of RMB depreciation.

Inflation declined in May, but last week it was rumored that the scale of credit in May was still low. The MPA assessment at the end of the quarter was approaching, and the liquidity pressure remained.

Maintain monetary interest rate center 2.25%-2.5% in the next 3 months.

There are still many variables in the bond market.

In the last week of May, the banks were rushing to lend money, and the credit data in the whole month exceeded expectations.

In addition, this week will welcome the Fed's Conference on interest rates, and next week will usher in a referendum on Britain's withdrawal from Europe.

The current uncertainty is too high, short-term interest rate debt will continue to shock, maintain 10 years of the national debt interval 2.8%-3.2%, 10 years open range 3.2%-3.6%.

Inflation is coming down in the short term.

In May, CPI fell slightly to 2%, mainly due to the seasonal decline of vegetable prices.

But pork prices and oil prices are still rising. The central bank's work paper has increased CPI to * 2.4%.

Not yet.

In May, PPI rose to -2.8%, predicting that PPI rose to -2.5% in June, and industrial prices are expected to continue to improve.

The currency remained stable.

In May, although prices dropped in the near future, rumors of high inflation and high inflation in May were reported.

Not yet.

And the risk of Britain's retreat from Europe has pushed the US dollar stronger, resulting in a rising pressure on the renminbi to depreciate, which means that the monetary policy is limited and will remain stable.

Short term security is paramount.

The poor employment in the United States this year reflects the fact that the US economy is lower than expected.

The rise in risk in Britain reflects the increasing trend of protectionism in the context of economic downturn, which will exacerbate the risk of global economic downturn.

Even if the US raises interest rates, it is only the central bank continuing to pour water into the market, which is not conducive to solving the problem of economic growth. Instead, it boosts the rise in oil prices and grain prices and increases the risk of stagflation.

Short term recommendations are safety oriented, with gold and cash as the main asset allocation.

Credit financing is blocked.

More enterprises cash flow is difficult to cover the maturity debt, and can only rely on new loans to survive. The risk appetite of banks has declined. New loans have been strictly controlled. They rely more heavily on the bond market refinancing, and mainly rely on short debt and short fuse. However, the issuance of debt will become more difficult when the credit risk rises. In the same period, the issuance of bonds will drop sharply. The refinancing will be blocked and the credit risk will be pushed up by the.