The Second Baby Boom Is Expected To Exceed 150 Billion By 2017.

In recent years, China's second child open baby boom.

The scale of consumption continues to expand and maintains a relatively high growth rate.

In 2015, the size of children's clothing market in China reached 1372 billion yuan, and the growth rate reached 8%. With the opening of the second child and the upgrading of consumption, it is estimated that the market size will exceed 150 billion by 2017.

Two babies open baby boom

In recent years, the scale of children's wear in China has been expanding and maintaining a relatively high growth rate.

In 2015, the size of children's clothing market in China reached 1372 billion yuan, and the growth rate reached 8%. With the opening of the second child and the upgrading of consumption, it is estimated that the market size will exceed 1500 billion billion by 2017.

Under the background of the depressed demand for the environment, especially in the background of the growth of the adult clothing market and the saturation of the men's and women's clothing market, the fast growth of children's wear market is particularly bright. It has become a new growth field in the development of the clothing industry.

First, children's wear industry needs rapid growth and large market space.

The children's clothing industry is a large industry group that covers all 0-14 years old (sometimes extending to 0-16 years old).

According to the difference between age and height, children's clothing products can be further divided into 0-3 years old "infant clothing" and "4-14 year old" children's clothing. According to the product type, they can also be divided into two categories: uniforms, coats, trousers, T-Shirts, shoes and so on.

1, a comprehensive two child policy open, the number of baby growth in the future

In from October 26 to 29, 2015, at the Fifth Plenary Session of the eighteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted the proposal of the CPC Central Committee on formulating the thirteenth five year plan for national economic and social development, and put forward the policy of "fully implementing a couple to have two children."

Since the partial opening of the second child policy in 2013, the number of new born babies in China has begun to open up a high speed growth mode. We expect that with the full implementation of this policy, the number of new born babies in the future will maintain or even increase the current high growth rate.

The number of new born babies in China in 2010-2017 years

Due to the continuous implementation of family planning, the 0-14 year old population in China has been declining, reaching a minimum of 222 million in 2011, then slowly increasing in 2012 and 2013, the growth rate was 0.1%~0.5%, and the total population share decreased from 20.27% in 2005 to 16.41% in 2013.

Following the partial opening of the second child policy in 2013, with the accelerated growth of the number of new born babies, the 0-14 year old population began to accelerate growth in 2014, and the growth rate reached 1%, accounting for 16.49% of the total population, accounting for the highest in 4 years.

We expect that with the rapid growth of the number of newborn babies, the number of Chinese 0-14 year olds will continue to grow.

The increasing number of baby children brings more market space to children's wear market.

In 2014, China's population aged 0-14 was 226 million, of whom 124 million were urban children. This group is the main group of children's clothing consumption.

The size of China's 0-14 year old population in 2005-2014 years

2, income growth and consumption upgrading, expanding the scale of infant consumption.

In 2015, the per capita disposable income of the whole country was 21966 yuan, an increase of 8.9% over the previous year, and the actual growth rate was 7.4% after deducting the price factor.

According to permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents is 31195 yuan, an increase of 8.2% over the previous year, a real increase of 6.6% after deducting price factors.

The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 11422 yuan, an increase of 8.9% over the previous year and a real increase of 7.5%.

The per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents was 21392 yuan, an increase of 7.1%, a real increase of 5.5% after deducting price factors, and a per capita consumption expenditure of 9223 yuan for rural residents, an increase of 10%, a 8.6% increase in real terms after deducting price factors.

With the increasing level of per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents, enhanced consumption ability provides a guarantee for the prosperity of infant industry.

2011-2015 per capita disposable income and actual growth rate of the country

2011-2015 per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents in China

In addition to the overall consumption level of urban and rural residents, the "after 80" and "90 behind" enter the peak period of marriage and childbirth, and further promote the rapid growth of infant consumption scale.

2015 the data of sina's maternal and child consumption white paper show that the proportion of 80 and post-90s group accounts for more than 85.9% of the parenting group. Most of them are single children, whose economic growth environment is superior, and their quality of life is higher.

For example, parents used to think that children wore enough clothes to wear, but after 80 and 90, parents liked to dress up their children in fashion and beautiful, often choosing new clothes for their children.

80. 90, parents have become the main body of consumer decision-making in modern urban families. At the same time, through the long-term income level improvement and the current mainstream "4+2+1" family structure, the consumption expenditure of children in modern families has two generations' wealth accumulation as the foundation, amplifying and promoting the realization of infant consumer demand.

At present, almost every family is increasing the expenditure on food, education, toys, clothing and other aspects. According to the China children's Industry Research Center, 80% of the family children's expenditure accounts for 30%-50% of household expenditure. Infant consumption has become the largest expenditure of household consumption, and the consumption of children's children embodies the consumption escalation of family expenditure.

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Proportion of parenting groups in all ages

3, children's wear industry is still growing, and the market will be huge in the future.

Compared with men's clothing, women's clothing and other clothing categories, China's children's wear industry started late.

With the change of our family's consumption habits of children's clothing, the professional children's clothing enterprises in China began to develop after the 90 mid century of last century.

From the perspective of industrial life cycle, children's clothing industry in China is still in its growth stage, and has the characteristics of rapid growth of market demand and growing space.

In recent years, the scale of children's wear in China has been expanding and maintaining a relatively high growth rate.

In 2015, the size of children's clothing market in China reached 137 billion 200 million, and the growth rate reached 8%. With the opening of the second child and the upgrading of consumption, it is estimated that the market size will exceed 150 billion by 2017.

Children's clothing industry is still in its growth stage.

Sales scale of Chinese children's clothing in 2011-2017 years

Due to the economic downturn and weak demand, the whole garment industry is slowing down.

The total retail sales of consumer goods continued to decline for the past 10 years. In the first quarter of 2016, the total retail sales of social consumer goods grew by only 9.7%, representing a 0.4 percentage point drop compared with the whole year of 2015.

Under the background of the depressed demand for the environment, especially in the background of the growth of the adult clothing market and the saturation of the men's and women's clothing market, the fast growth of children's wear market is particularly bright. It has become a new growth field in the development of the clothing industry.

2011-2017 sales growth of Chinese children's wear, men's wear and women's wear

The rapid growth of children's wear industry has led many brands to take a look.

Today, not only is casual clothes, Lining, Anta, 31st degree and so on a large number of sports brands also began to rush to eat, fast fashion ZARA, gap, h&m also expanded the children's wear sales area, luxury brands Gucci, Dior, Fendi, Armani, burberry and so on have also increased the children's market.

After women's wear and men's wear, children's wear became the last piece of cake that the clothing industry scrambled for.

Brand children's clothing business mode mainly includes direct, franchise and distribution three kinds.

Direct camp mode refers to brand children's clothing enterprises directly selling products through direct retail outlets.

Enterprises set up sales outlets through investment, directly sell products to end users, and implement unified management of sales terminals' manpower, finance, logistics, business flow and information flow.

The advantage of the direct camp mode is that the brand manufacturers can effectively control the retail network terminals, facilitate the implementation of a unified brand management strategy and establish brand image, but also put forward higher requirements for the channel management system, personnel training mechanism and information management system of enterprises.

The franchise mode refers to the right of the brand children's clothing enterprise to grant franchisees the right to sell the company's products in a certain time and within a certain time by signing a franchise contract with franchisees with certain conditions.

In actual operation, franchisees operate their own stores or counters, buy products directly from the company and sell them to consumers.

The advantage of affiliate mode is that brand manufacturers can invest more quickly in establishing a wide coverage channel network, expand their scale and brand awareness, and focus their resources on product development and quality control, but their control over channel terminals is relatively weak.

The mode of distribution refers to the brand children's clothing enterprises choose dealers according to certain standards, and the dealers purchase and sell the designated commodities within the prescribed time limit and region.

Dealers purchase goods in their own name and sell them in prescribed areas.

The advantage of distribution mode lies in that brand manufacturers can borrow the resources of distributors, and rapidly increase sales scale. However, the company does not have the sales channels of distributors, and is insufficient in controlling and controlling marketing outlets.

5, shopping centers and online pactions rise

Compared with traditional channels such as department stores and brand stores in the street or community, shopping centers and online business operators have developed rapidly in recent years.

The shopping center shop is actually a brand store in the shopping center.

A shopping center is a commercial aggregate that integrates a variety of retail stores and service facilities in a building or a region to provide comprehensive services to consumers. It usually contains dozens or even hundreds of service places. It covers large comprehensive supermarkets, specialized shops, exclusive stores, catering stores, grocery stores, entertainment and fitness leisure. Unlike traditional department stores, it is a one-stop shopping platform that can satisfy people's daily shopping, entertainment and catering needs.

The construction of shopping centers in China started late, and began in the early 1990s. The earliest project was Tianhe shopping center located in the Pearl River Delta, but in recent years, it developed at a rapid speed.

China's shopping center has expanded in the last ten years in the world.

At present, the number of shopping centers in China has exceeded 4000, and in recent years there are three hundred or four hundred new shopping centers.

6, the concentration of children's clothing industry is far lower than that of developed countries, and is expected to improve in the future.

Although the potential space and capacity of children's clothing market in China are huge, it starts late and the market concentration is low.

In 2015, the share of the top ten children's clothing brands in China was only 10.6%, far below that of France, Britain, the United States, Japan, Korea and other developed countries.

In addition to the number one brand, Barbara accounted for 4%, other brands were below 1%, and the market was highly dispersed.

The low market concentration brings opportunities to children's wear brands.

Due to the fact that there has not yet been a complete competition pattern, there are many brands in the children's wear market in China.

In addition to many professional children's wear brands, with the maturity of the adult clothing market and the relatively rapid growth of children's wear market, many domestic and foreign adult clothing brand enterprises have joined the battlefields, intensified the competition of the industry, and formed the situation of numerous brands at home and abroad.

At present, the domestic children's clothing brands prevail. Among the top ten brands in the market, there are 7 Chinese brands, 3 foreign brands, and the top five are Chinese brands.

According to the brand entry path, children's wear brands can be divided into professional children's wear brand and adult wear extension brand, and can be divided into domestic brand and foreign brand according to the brand origin.

Professional children's wear brand is an independent brand of children's clothing, such as Barbara, adult wear extension brand is to extend the development of children's clothing brands on the basis of the original adult wear, such as E-land is a famous Korean clothing brand, was born in 1980, its brand is numerous, has the main adult casual wear E-land, and children's clothing brand E-land Kids and so on.

China's top twenty market share in 2015.

The percentage of occupancy is 15.2%. In these domestic and foreign children's wear brands, the domestic professional children's wear brands occupy an absolute advantage, occupying 62% of all the top 20 brands, and occupying rate is growing.

Domestic brands are better than foreign brands. We believe that the main reason is that the domestic children's clothing brand lines are more extensive than foreign brands, and they also have a better understanding of the Chinese market.

The professional children's wear brand is better than the adult clothing extension brand. The main reason is that the professional children's clothing enters the children's clothing market earlier, and the children's clothing industry has a more accurate grasp of the consumption characteristics and a comprehensive category.

The adult sportswear brand extends the children's sportswear clothing which is extended by the sports brand. It performs well, such as the Adidas Kids, a sportswear brand designed for children designed by Adidas, a famous German sports brand.

Two, the development trend of children's wear industry

1, since the Sanlu milk powder incident in 2008, China's frequent incidents of baby products safety, including recent vaccine incidents, have aroused great concern from society and family. Now, whether milk powder, complementary food or toys or children's clothing, parents are beginning to pay special attention to safety and quality problems.

According to the 2015 white paper on maternal and infant consumption in Sina, when the family is consuming maternal and infant products, the quality factor of the product exceeds the price factor and becomes the most concerned part.

As children's clothing consumption tends to be branded, children's clothing market will gradually become centralized.

On the one hand, as the mandatory safety standards for infant and child textile products are formally implemented in June 1, 2016, the strict examination conditions for children's clothing will make the small businesses in the market less developed, and the small businesses that are supported by R & D funds will gradually be eliminated by the market.

On the other hand, with the 80 and 90, the demand for personalized fashion children's clothing is growing, and other brands without brand or lack of fashion elements will be phased out.

Though at present

It is still relatively dispersed, but in recent years, it has gradually shown the trend of centralization.

The share of the top ten brands in China has been increasing from 2012 to 2015, from 8.8% in 2012 to 10.6% in 2015.

Compared with the mature children's clothing market in neighboring Japan and South Korea, children's clothing consumption usually presents a more concentrated market structure, while the market concentration of children's clothing in China's growth stage is not even half that of the mature market.

Therefore, we believe that the improvement of industry concentration under the trend of branding is the development direction of domestic baby clothing in the future.

2, with the rapid development of the electronic commerce platform, the logistics industry and the arrival of the mobile Internet era, online shopping is becoming more and more convenient. Now it has become one of the most important shopping channels for mothers and consumers.

From 2011 to 2015, the scale of maternal and child consumption increased rapidly and expanded rapidly.

The scale of 2015 has reached 360 billion 600 million and the growth rate has reached 15.5%. It is estimated that by 2018, the consumption of mother and infant online will reach 767 billion yuan.

On the line, the proportion of children's clothing is the largest on the line of maternal and infant consumption.

In 2015, the proportion of children's online shopping reached 25.4%, a percentage point higher than that of 24.1% in 2014.

Therefore, we believe that with the further development of mobile Internet, there will be huge room for the development of children's clothing business in the future, and online pactions will continue to grow at a high speed.

In the past ten years, the first tier cities are the main battleground of brand children's clothing. A large number of international brands will also go to first tier cities, because the existing consumption ability and consumption demand market of first tier cities can satisfy them.

In the first tier cities' main sales channels, shopping malls and shopping centers, local children's wear brands and international brands are fiercely competitive, and the market share has been basically saturated. Therefore, the battlefield has gradually turned to develop a better 234 tier city.

We believe that along with the continuous progress of urbanization, the continuous improvement of per capita income and the brand of infant consumption, the next line of brand children's clothing enterprises will sink to the 234 line cities and counties and townships.

Since 2005, China's urbanization process has maintained rapid development, and the number of urban population has continued to grow.

By the end of 2015, China's urban population was about 770 million, and its urbanization rate rose from 43% in 2005 to 56.1%.

In 2014, the national new urbanization plan (2014-2020 years) put forward that by 2020, the urbanization rate of permanent residents in China will reach about 60%.

With the continuous progress of urbanization, cities are expanding, and the agricultural population is gradually shifting to the industrial and service sectors.

According to the data of the prospective network, in 2015 1-12, the retail sales of children's clothing in 200 key retail enterprises nationwide increased by 1.9% over the same period last year. According to the market, the sales growth of two or three line cities was higher, which was 5.5% and 3.6%, respectively, and the consumption ability of the two or three tier cities appeared.

Some three line cities are developing rapidly, and the level of consumption growth has surpassed that of the second tier cities.

According to the statistical yearbook of Jiangsu, the growth rate of urban residents' expenditure in three cities, such as Xuzhou, Huaian and Suqian, has been higher than that of Nanjing, Suzhou and other second-tier cities.

With the increase of income and consumption ability in counties and townships and three or four tier cities, the demand for branded children's clothing has increased. Children's wear brands, especially domestic children's wear brands, will be rapidly sinking by means of brand stores. The brand or children's clothing with no brand or small brands originally occupied in these markets will gradually be replaced by brand children's clothing.

On the other hand, the data of the National Bureau of statistics show that China's three or four line population accounts for 53% of the total population, while the number of shopping centers in the three or four tier cities accounts for only 29.6% of the total shopping centers in the country.

Therefore, along with the development of urbanization, the coordinated development of large and medium-sized cities will speed up the expansion of the main clothing retail channels such as department stores and shopping centers in the three or four line cities, thus contributing to the rapid subsidence and development of international and domestic children's clothing brands in the three or four line cities.

3, at present, the brand children's clothing in China's children's clothing market is homogenized. Apart from some children's clothing with special style extended by adult wear or clothing specially aimed at a certain age segment, most brand image and target audience are not outstanding enough.

We believe that with the increasing competition in children's wear market, children's wear brands will develop towards differentiation and the market will be more subdivided.

First of all, it is aimed at subdividing the age of the target. Because 0-14 years old children grow fast, height, body type, growth speed and so on, each stage is different. Therefore, it is necessary to design children's physique and characteristics and the design requirements and consumption characteristics of each stage.

At present, most brands are divided into 0-3 years old children's clothing and 4-14 year old children's clothing, but subdivision should actually include 0-2 year old baby clothes, 2-3 year old children's clothes, 4-6 year old children's wear, 7-9 year old children's wear, 10-12 year old children's wear and 13-14 year old teenage clothes.

In addition, the physique, physical endurance and immune ability of 0-3 year old infants are changing rapidly, so they can be subdivided according to 3 or 6 months.

Second is gender, carrying function, brand style segmentation.

Since the partial opening of the second child in the second half of 2013, the number of newborns in China has only accelerated. Therefore, most of the newly increased consumption due to the increase in the size of the consumer population is reflected in infant clothing.

Starting from 2013, the scale of infant clothing consumption began to grow rapidly, and maintained a growth rate far higher than that of men's children's wear and women's wear. In 2015, sales reached 24 billion 500 million, an increase of about 48% over the 2012 level.

Infant clothing is the first to share the growth brought by the opening of the second child. According to the time, by the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, the children's wear in China will begin to accelerate growth.