China's Exports Shrink Further, How Should The Future Strategy Go?

Exports are weakening against the backdrop of the global economic downturn.

China's exports remain relatively weak since the beginning of the year when global economic performance remains weak.

Since the second half of 15, the pace of US economic recovery has slowed down significantly, while the euro zone and Japan are still at the edge of deflation.

In addition, with the tightening of overseas financing conditions and the shrinking global demand, the growth rate of the emerging markets has slowed sharply.

In May, exports and imports fell by 4.1% and 0.4% respectively.

According to the General Administration of customs data, China's exports decreased further in May (compared with the same period last year, all data in US dollars) 4.1%, while in April it declined by 1.8%.

At the same time, imports fell slightly by 0.4%, compared with 10.9% in April.

After seasonally adjusted exports and imports fell by 6.2% and 4.7% in May respectively, while in April, they fell by 0.2% and 7.3% respectively.

In May, the trade surplus increased from 45 billion 600 million US dollars in April to US $50 billion.

In 16 and 1-5 months, exports and imports fell by 7.3% and 10.3% respectively, while 7.6% and 12.8% respectively in 1-4 months.

Export performance in May was weaker than expected.

It remains relatively weak.

At the same time, the continuous rise of real estate prices and labor costs has greatly weakened the manufacturing industry in China.

Especially in labor-intensive industries.

We forecast that China's exports will decline by 2.5% in 2016.

Notable improvement in imports was mainly due to a sharp rebound in commodity prices in the past few months.

At the same time, the capital outflow in the name of foreign trade also led to the distortion of import data, because we noticed that imports from Hongkong increased by 146.8% in the 16 years and 1-5 months.

However, domestic demand remains weak due to continued business downlink cycles.

We still maintain 2016.

Forecasts for growth of -3.5%.

In the 16 years and 1-4 months, exports to the US dropped by 8.9%, and exports to the US fell 1-5 in 1-5 months.

Exports to the European Union and Japan fell by 4% and 6.6% in 16 and 1-5 months respectively, while 4.4% and 7% respectively in the 1-4 months.

At the same time, exports to Hongkong and South Korea decreased by 4.7% and 8.7% respectively, both in April.

Exports to Taiwan and Australia fell by 5.6% and 5.3% respectively, while in the 1-4 months they fell by 4.7% and 4.3% respectively.

Exports to ASEAN member countries and Brazil were still weak, but the decline in 1-5 months from 16 to 8.9% and 41.7% narrowed to 7.5% and 39.3% respectively in the past 1-5 years.

Exports of most products have slowed down due to weak demand and declining competitiveness.

Due to weak overseas demand and continuous increase in input costs, the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing industry has declined, and exports of most products are still weak.

In 16 and 1-5 months, exports of textiles and clothing decreased by 0.5% and 3.6% respectively, while 0.8% and 4% respectively decreased in 1-4 months.

At the same time, exports of luggage and similar items, footwear and furniture decreased by 6.1%, 8.7% and 9.9% respectively, with a decrease of 4.3%, 8.5% and 9.9%, respectively.

After 13.3% growth in 16 years and 1-4 months, toy exports still maintained a positive growth rate of 11%.

In 16, 1-5 months, the automatic data processing unit and the export of mechanical and electronic equipment decreased by 14.5% and 7.9% respectively, with a decline of 1-4 months.

After 24.7% decline in 16 years and 1-4 months, the export of steel products narrowed to 22.4% in 1-5 months.

In 16, 1-5, the export of high-tech products dropped by 7.6%, while that in 1-4 fell by 7.1%.

Imports rose because of rising commodity prices and cardinal effects.

Commodity prices rebounded sharply in May, pushing import values up.

However, weak domestic demand still restricts import performance.