Where Is The Real "Market Bottom" Of The Stock Market?

Many agencies have been expecting the market to have a "dig hole" action and usher in the real market bottom of the stock market. But this "dig hole" action has not yet appeared, resulting in wait-and-see sentiment is still strong. At this stage, the stock market will pay more attention to a "stable" word. The stock market disaster has been away from us for a whole year. However, taking the Shanghai Composite Index as an example, since the adjustment of the 5178 high points, the cumulative maximum decline has been close to 50%, and the adjustment space can be regarded as relatively sufficient.

Over the past 4 or 5 months, the main market areas have basically been frozen between 2750-3000 points. During this period, the volatility of the stock market showed a sharp narrowing compared with the previous period. However, when the market falls to the operating area below the 3000 point, it often sees the frequent support of the national team. At the same time, management seems to have done the utmost to protect the stock market. Perhaps, to some extent, the operation interval of the Shanghai stock index 2750-3000 point can basically be defined as the "policy bottom" of the A share market.

However, for investors, especially senior investors, they have a deeper understanding of China's stock market. However, looking at the market performance over the past years, when the "policy bottom" appears, the stock market may still have a "market bottom". Perhaps, for the current stock market, though it is already in place. Bottom of policy But the capital market seems to be waiting for the "market bottom" to come.

In fact, from the perspective of adjustment space, since the adjustment of the high point has been close to 50% of the space, basically reached the state of overfall. However, judging from the adjustment time, since the beginning of 6 last month at 5178 o'clock, the real time of stock market adjustment is only one year. Perhaps, for the Chinese stock market characterized by "short bear and long bear", after adjusting for the turmoil of the crazy bull market bubble, its adjustment space is close enough, but the time is slightly shorter.

It should be noted that, in retrospect of recent months, equity market The continued stability may still be inseparable from the influence of the national team's active financial support. However, in view of the frequent launch of the national team's funds, taking into account the gradual outbreak of the systemic risks under the 3000 points, we also take into account the preparation for the long-term funds, especially pension funds, insurance funds and other funds to enter the market. As a result, behind the frequent launch of the national team's funds, it also implies to some extent that the marketization degree of China's stock market is not enough, and the original self-regulation function of the stock market is not significant. As we often mention Marketization The pace of reform may also be slowed down by this round of stock market turmoil.

As a matter of fact, we still need to pay attention to one problem after the frequent launch of the national team's funds. Specifically, that is to say, the funds of the early stage national team are basically laid out in some heavyweight shares which are higher than the market weight, and throughout some heavyweights and even super weight stocks, the list of the top ten shareholders also seems to be inseparable from the national team funds or closely related institutions. As a result, after a previous round of stock market turmoil, in fact, the national team funds have formed a highly controlled pattern for such weighted stocks, and this move often means that the market will be effectively blocked, and the stability of the stock market has also been greatly improved.

Perhaps, for many institutions and investors, they have been looking forward to a "dig out" movement in the market and the real "bottom of the market" in the stock market. However, after a lapse of many months, this "digging hole" action has not yet appeared. Obviously, under the background that the national team funds are highly controlled against some of the weighted stocks, the real "market bottom" of the stock market still needs to wait. Perhaps in the current stock market is in a dilemma, the stock market in the form of time for space to deduce, the probability will be higher.

Then, when the market enters the critical period of the second half of the year, will the "market bottom" of the stock market still come? However, in my opinion, the wait-and-see sentiment of OTC funds will still be slightly stronger under the premise that the stock market has not yet been able to effectively achieve self adjustment function. Perhaps, at this stage, the stock market pays more attention to the word "stable".