Cotton Market Is Still Strong And Strong.

Since April, along with the exchange control and the sale of state cotton and cotton, Zheng cotton has been suffering from high stagflation. In the consolidation and consolidation at the bottom of the continuous uplift of the state, the three challenge to the high gateway area of zhengmian, but no breakthrough has been made. Now the market themes are basically concentrated on these two aspects, that is, throwing storage and new production growth. In view of the current throw quantity, volume and price, we can say that throwing reserves still has relative constraints on the market, but the intensity is not enough.

On the new growth level, the early hail, low temperature and other disasters caused the rebroadcast of Xinjiang cotton field, and the new crop production and reduction expected to support the market, but the market reflects the driving force is not too sufficient.

On the whole, the cotton market is still strong and volatile, and the performance of Zheng cotton contract may be clearer. Among them, the September contract is relatively weak, and other contracts are relatively strong.

In May 3rd, cotton throwing and storage started, and the volume of auctions from this time period was relatively high. As of June 20th, the cumulative turnover of cotton reserves totaled 876956.11 tons, and the total volume of imported cotton was 296129.07 tons, with a turnover rate of 98.16%. The total turnover of domestic cotton was 580827.04 tons, with a turnover rate of 96.74%.

In terms of paction price, the average price of imported cotton was 3128 fold in May 10th, and the price was 13815 yuan / ton. In May 17th, the import price of cotton was 3128, and the average price was 13514 yuan / ton. In May 23rd, the average turnover was 13598 yuan / ton, and in May 30th, it dropped to 13091 yuan / ton, and entered June.

No auction continued.

The average price of domestic cotton in May 10th was 3128 yuan, 12598 yuan / ton, the average price in May 17th was 12788 yuan / ton, the average price in May 23rd was 12740, the average price in May 30th was 12527 yuan / ton, the average price in June 3rd was 12739 yuan / ton, the average price in June 6th was 12714 yuan / ton, the average price of the paction was 12974 yuan / ton, and the average price was 12990 yuan / ton.

On the one hand, the volume shows that there is indeed demand. On the other hand, it shows that supply is effective. But in the near term, the paction price is steadily rising, indicating that the market is still feeling tight, especially the high quality cotton.

It is understood that Zheng cotton main clearance positions have declined, as of June 17th, the main positions of the top 20 long positions 206946 hands, compared with last week's 151138 hands increased 55808 hands, empty 261080 hands, 211731 hands last week increased 49349 hands, 54134 hands empty, compared with last week, 6459 hands, more empty main force holdings are obvious, bullish holdings slightly better, net clearance decreased, the market there is a certain financial impetus.

But the US cotton fund net keeps many positions continuously increasing, turning to net in the middle of April. After that, many net positions increased. It also showed that the capital price sentiment was more obvious.

Current domestic stage

The fundamentals are relatively simple, that is, the dumping and storage of old buildings and the growth of new products. There are restrictions on the market in terms of the old throwing and storing subjects. During the new period of growth, there is little support but limited intensity in the weather stage of the new growth period. From the perspective of the cash flow that directly affects the disk, there is still a lot of support for the market. There is also a certain support for the market. Therefore, the overall judgement of the market is strong and volatile, and the oscillation pattern remains unchanged in a certain stage.

Follow the end of April, 1 million 200 thousand tons of social inventory, follow up

The calculation of 2 million tons (according to the current volume of 2 million tons of reserves is not a particularly difficult matter), consumption of 600 thousand tons per month, the demand for 5 months before the new flower market is calculated according to 3 million tons, the supply and demand are basically balanced, and the market as a whole should be balanced. However, considering the tight expectations of high quality cotton and the relatively low supply of futures market deliveries, it is easy to cause the market to uplift emotions, and the market is likely to show a strong and volatile pattern.

State Reserve Auction continued, the overall supply can still be enough, but the national cotton store outgoing speed is slow, the high-grade cotton is reduced, the tight structure of the structure is supporting the whole cotton market, and it is the support for the market.

Since the beginning of June, the temperature in Xinjiang cotton region has been low, and it has been attacked by hailstones intermittently. From the overall situation, the affected area is around 100 thousand mu, which accounts for about 0.3% of the output of Xinjiang cotton area. It has a certain benefit to promote, but the overall impact is limited. However, the temperature has obviously picked up in recent stages, and the critical growth period of cotton is in 7 and August. If the temperature can recover, the impact on the output may not be too large. Therefore, it is not appropriate to overestimate cotton's premium space at present.