Britain'S Departure From Europe Is A Foregone Conclusion: China'S Foreign Trade And Finance Will Be Vulnerable In The Short Term.

Since the beginning of this year, the recovery of the world economy has been slower and unbalanced.

The world bank has lowered its global economic growth forecast in 2016 from 2.9% in January to 2.4%.

The referendum in Britain has become a new uncertainty factor in the world economy.

Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank's asset management division, said: "if the United Kingdom leads to a new round of recession or pessimism in Europe, it is expected that it will be pmitted to China through trade and investment chains, while the EU is China's largest trading partner, and the impact of China's foreign trade will be particularly strong, thereby increasing the downward pressure on the economy during the year."

The macro group report of Huatai Securities also pointed out that China's global position has positive changes from the perspective of big power game, but the pressure of China's foreign trade sector will be even greater.

The Yangtze securities macro fixed income group report pointed out that although China has great influence on the UK,

The dependency ratio is low, but the slowdown in EU and US economic growth will further restrict the recovery of China's external demand.

But for the renminbi, though

In the short term, it will inevitably increase the risk aversion of the market, thereby pushing up the US dollar index and creating a short-term impact on the RMB exchange rate. But in the medium to long term, the withdrawal of the euro may make the international market reassess RMB assets and boost this demand.

The US bank reported that the Limited by Share Ltd of the Bank of China warned that the so-called "Britain off Europe" could not only impact Sino EU trade, but could also damage the British economy and London's role as a financial centre.

The bank believes that the referendum in Britain is only the beginning of uncertainty.

Liao Shuping, a senior researcher at the Bank of China International Finance Research Institute, said Britain's departure from Europe not only seriously damaged its own economic development, but also undermines London's status as an international financial centre and its financial stability.

In fact, despite the fact that the referendum results are basically determined, the removal of Europe still requires the approval of the domestic legal procedures in the UK.

This long process of separation has just begun and there are many variables ahead.

The results of the referendum were announced on the same day.

Big shock.

The pound plunged sharply against the US dollar, which was close to 10%, reaching a new low of nearly 30 years. The central parity of RMB against the US dollar dropped by 118 basis points to 6.5776, and the spot exchange rate of RMB also fell.

The relationship between Britain and the EU has been complicated and has been changing from the beginning.

The British considered that they had been rejected many times before they finally joined the European Community in 1973.

But two years later, Britain held a referendum on whether to stay in the EU in 1975.

Although the outcome of that referendum was left behind, the debate on the issue of retention and withdrawal never ceased.

When the European Union is in a favorable position, it is doubtful that Europe's voice is small, and the EU problem is long. It is doubtful that the momentum of Optima will be great.

In addition to the declaration of the political and economic future of Britain, it is also a declaration of the national identity of the country.