The Bank Of Japan Is Going To Have To Go Again

For the first half of this year, even the most boldly forecast of yen has underestimated at least 10%.

From Britain to Europe to Trump as the established presidential candidate of the US Republican Party, many people thought that these impossible things became reality, and investors sought Japanese yen as a hedge asset. Therefore, the appreciation of the yen exceeded all forecasts.

Strategists are still trying to catch up with the yen's appreciation. They expect the yen to rise in June, the biggest monthly gain since 2008.

Policymakers have been very worried because of the Japanese yen.

Or it will erase the results of the stimulus implemented by the BoJ in the past three years.

Just a year ago, the Bank of Japan's stimulus measures made the yen down from its weakest level in 2002.

In June 20th, Kuroda Higashihiko, governor of the Bank of Japan, said that the Bank of Japan was still halfway through the 2% price, and Japan had already got rid of deflation.

However, Peng Bo reports that Kuroda Higashihiko is still on the wrong side of the 2% inflation target.

The prime minister, known as "Mr. yen", was expected in April this year that the yen will rise to 105 in the next few months and will rise by 100 at the end of the year.

The reality shows that this prediction is basically in line with the actual situation, and may even be too cautious.

In the first half of 2016, the yen rose by 17%, the highest gain in the first half of 1995.

In June 24th, when the British referendum was off, the yen rose to 99.02 against the US dollar, making the yen the second best currency this year.

In July 1st, Japan's Bureau of statistics showed that excluding Japan's fresh food, Japan's core CPI in May was -0.4% compared with the same period last year, which is the third consecutive month of decline in CPI in Japan.

The next regular policy meeting of the Bank of Japan will be held on 28-29 July.

After the referendum, Barclay believed that the yen could even rise to 83 by the end of June 2017, and that Britain's withdrawal from Europe would have a significant impact on Japan's economy and prices through the foreign exchange market.

Barclay also said that before the July Conference on interest rates, the Bank of Japan may even hold an informal meeting to announce the implementation of additional easing policies, including quantitative easing and lower interest rates.

Nomura believes that Japan's economic growth momentum is weak, and even if it does not consider the impact of Britain's withdrawal from Europe, the Bank of Japan is at a more likely loose end.

This allows short-term policy actions to come out.

Tohru Sasaki, a Japanese the Wall Street firm research director in Tokyo, said that with the hot election in the US in 10-12 months and the weakening of the US dollar, the yen is likely to break through again by 100.

Tohru Sasaki is one of the most accurate analysts of currency since 2013.