Cotton Auction Sale High Spot Spot Tight Balance

Since June, the price of cotton has gone up, and the price has risen to the highest level in 13 months.

Throwing cotton reserves can not delay volume, resulting in tight spot cotton, futures have been boosted.

On the outside side, although the US cotton growth and sowing is good, but India cotton production is expected to decline, and China's dumping and storage pactions are good, the import is expected to increase, the United States cotton also showed a strong trend.

Since June, only the domestic cotton has been sold in the state reserve auction. Even so, the average price of the auction paction has increased little and the turnover has remained high.

On the one hand, the volume shows that there is indeed demand. On the other hand, it shows that supply is effective. But in the near term, the paction price is steadily rising, indicating that the market is still feeling tight, especially the high quality cotton.

According to the social inventory of 1 million tons at the end of May, 2 million tons of subsequent national savings and auctions were calculated (according to the current volume, 2 million tons of reserves were not particularly difficult), 600 thousand tons per month were calculated, and the demand for 5 months before the new flower listing was calculated according to 3 million tons, and the balance between supply and demand was tight.

Considering the tight expectations of high quality cotton and the relatively low supply of futures market deliveries, it is easy to cause market uplifting sentiment.

The cotton auction was hot, but the volume of inflow to the trade was not large, and the slow export of domestic cotton was the main reason.

Recently, the market has been rumored for many times that it is unlikely to sell.

From part of the reserve cotton, we know that the daily public inspection volume is about a few hundred tons, less than more than 170 tons. In a month without rest, it can only check about 5000 tons. To meet the requirements of "package inspection and batch inspection", it is necessary to detect and discharge the warehouse.

If the NDRC wants to change

The current situation of slow storage is only to reduce the inspection standard. Whether or not it is approved by enterprises is unknown. There is a big uncertainty about the impact of national cotton storage on inventory.

This is also the reason why cotton auction is delayed.

In view of the shortage of supply and demand in the short term, it is difficult to decline only in the short term.

In and out of June

The price rises synchronously, but the outer yarns increase rapidly, and the difference between them is more obvious.

Domestic cotton yarn partly replaced imported cotton yarn, and cotton consumption began to rebound.

Compared with the cost price of cotton yarn, the market supply will be tight in September this year, and the price is expected to remain strong until September.

And the intensity is expected to slow down slightly, for two reasons: first, the exchange rate fluctuations are uncertain, the domestic yarn to import yarn extrusion process is likely to stagnate or even repeated; two is the textile off-season, the overall capacity of the downstream is limited, and in September is about to usher in the new cotton market, the national cotton throwing and storage prices will not rise significantly.

7-8 cotton and India cotton are in the late stage of sowing.

Entering the critical period of growth, the main cotton producing areas in the world have entered the stage of weather speculation.

From all weather, the weather in the US cotton area is good all day, and India and China are worrying.

Specifically, in China, the temperature in Xinjiang cotton region has been low since the beginning of June, and it has been attacked by hailstones intermittently. From the overall situation, the affected area is about 100 thousand mu, accounting for about 0.3% of the output of Xinjiang cotton area, and whether the temperature in 7-8 can be resumed will have a great impact on output.

In India, so far, 980 thousand hectares of cotton have been planted, compared with 1 million 430 thousand hectares in the same period last year.

But the rainy season between June and September this year is 106% higher than that of the normal period. It is also delayed by one week compared with the previous years.

On the whole, the cotton market is good in terms of the government's policy of throwing aside reserves.

There are three reasons for this: first, cotton spot resources are scarce, and cotton throwing and storing cotton are difficult to make in the short term.

Two, the price of domestic cotton yarn has been significantly lower than that of imported cotton yarn. At present, the tight price of India's resources has further inhibited the impact of imported cotton and cotton yarn on the Chinese market, and domestic cotton consumption has improved.

Three is the 7-8 month global cotton area into the weather speculation period, China and India exist theme.

Under these factors, cotton prices keep rising.

However, the possibility of a sharp rise is not great, because the new cotton will be listed in September and the downstream textile industry has limited reception capacity.

Therefore, cotton prices are expected to rise slightly.

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