Short Term Cotton Prices Or Entering The Bottleneck Period Of Cotton Reserves Into "Fragrant Pastry"

Weather speculation superimposed short-term imbalance between supply and demand, domestic cotton prices easy to rise or fall.

However, due to the existence of textile off-season and external cotton, and the profits of downstream yarn enterprises began to be further compressed due to rising raw materials, pressing consumption, short term cotton prices or entering the bottleneck period.

As of July 1st, the cumulative turnover of cotton reserves totaled 1 million 60 thousand and 300 tons, and the total volume of imported cotton was 296 thousand and 100 tons, with a turnover rate of 98.16%. The total turnover of domestic cotton was 764 thousand and 200 tons, with a turnover rate of 97.34%.

"Spot circulation resources are at a historic low level, and the survey by relevant agencies shows that cotton sales have basically ended this year.

Reserve cotton is the main supplier in the domestic market. At present, the daily volume is kept at a low level, and the supply and demand in the cotton market is tight.

CITIC futures analyst Wang Yan pointed out.

Looking ahead, Wang Yan believes that if there is no substantial increase in policy cotton reserves, cotton prices will still have room for imagination before new cotton comes into the market.

"In recent days

The turnover rate was 100%, the turnover was hot, the enterprises increased the price positively, and the average price of Xinjiang cotton increased substantially. The textile enterprises considered that after the end of August, the market did not have the reserve cotton backing, and actively stocked it.

At present, the market is small, the price is strong, and the price of cotton is strong in various countries. Especially in India, cotton prices are rising. Textile mills are actively importing other countries' cotton. They have a certain support for the market, and the spot price of cotton in China has also been rising recently.

Traders hoarding goods, prices rise and negotiation space is not big.

Galaxy futures analyst Liu Qiannan pointed out.

Hongye futures analyst

It is believed that the reason for this year's reserve cotton is meat and potatoes. First, the quality of the reserve cotton has been guaranteed by "batch inspection" and "package inspection", which has solved the worries of participating enterprises. Two, because of the repeated delays in throwing and storing, the low inventory of enterprises and the dumping of stocks will stimulate the purchasing behavior of major enterprises.

But the market did not expect to sell for two months. The deal is still hot and the price is still strong.

This is mainly due to the fact that the circulation of cotton in the market is less and the supply of goods is in urgent need. Moreover, the cotton reserves have not increased, but there are signs of reduction in the near future.

Wang Yan said that the spot market cotton prices rose sharply, the downstream textile enterprises normal procurement, looking for a relatively low price source.

Downstream yarn prices are rising and textile companies are gradually shifting.

Upward pressure.

"Entering the stage of weather speculation, coupled with the current fundamentals of supply and demand, domestic cotton prices tend to rise and fall.

Because of the existence of textile off-season and outer cotton, of course, there will be no unrestricted rise.

Cotton prices soared, downstream yarn companies began to feel sad, profits were further compressed and suppressed consumption.

At the same time, according to the disk price of the US disk, the import price is below the corresponding contract price of 1000 yuan / ton.

At present, the price of disk has reached more than 15000 yuan / ton, and it is more difficult to innovate in the short term. "

Wang Xiaobei said.

According to Wang Xiaobei analysis, if the reserve cotton is supplied to the end of August (the news is coming to the end of September), then the reserve cotton will supply 1 million 389 thousand and 300 tons in the 6, 7 and 8 months, plus 2 million 389 thousand and 300 tons of commercial stocks in three months. In terms of demand, consumption will be 600 thousand tons per month, and 4.5 tons from June to the new cotton market (mid October).

If the reserve cotton is supplied to September, the supply and demand will have a surplus of 150 thousand tons per month.

If late cotton reserves are not allowed, turnover rate and paction price are high, domestic cotton prices will be difficult to get rid of, and will continue to be high or even higher.