The Expected Value Of The RMB Against The US Dollar Will Be Adjusted To Over 7.

The central parity of RMB against the US dollar dropped to 6.6950, heading for the 6.70 pass, hitting a new low since September 2010.

The yuan dropped 199 points against the euro's middle price, fell 452 points against the middle price of the pound, and raised 1032 points against the yen's middle price.

Offshore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated above 6.70.

In recent days, some overseas agencies will

The expected value of US dollar exchange rate is adjusted to more than 7.

Liu Jian, senior researcher of Bank of communications Financial Research Center, said in an interview with reporters that the RMB will continue to face devaluation pressure, but in the short term, it will depreciate to 7 against the US dollar.

Linked to the unexpected increase in foreign exchange reserves in June, Deng Haiqing, chief economist of Kyushu securities, said that from the two aspects of the central parity pricing mechanism and the withdrawal of foreign exchange market intervention, it means that the central bank has quietly completed the marketization reform of the exchange rate.

In order to maintain the relative stability of the effective exchange rate, the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB has a certain devaluation requirement.

The central bank also issued a statement recently that the RMB exchange rate is still in accordance with the closing rate of the day before yesterday plus a basket.

The existing mechanism of change is running normally.

US interest rate rises again

11, Andouble reiterated that he will continue to push forward.

"We should consider introducing a revised budget to the provisional Parliament and implementing a bold comprehensive economic strategy.

On the 11 day, the Nikkei 225 index rose 3.98%, and the US dollar closed up 2% against the yen.

According to foreign media reports, the US Kansas City fed governor Esther George reiterated its position on raising interest rates this Monday. She believes that a sharp rebound in US non farm employment in June is a key reason for further raising interest rates.

She said short-term interest rates remained at a historical low, and continued risk could lead to resource mismatch.

She supports gradual increase in interest rates.

The above factors contributed to the continuous rise of the US dollar and the pressure on the renminbi.

CFETS the RMB exchange rate index has been on the decline recently, the latest value is 94.25, down 0.63.

In recent days, some overseas institutions have lowered the expected value of the RMB against the US dollar to more than 7.

For the recent devaluation of the RMB against the US dollar, Liu Jian, a senior researcher at the bank's financial research center, told reporters in a media interview that since June 24th, the RMB has been under constant pressure of devaluation. However, this devaluation is the response of the current pricing mode of "RMB's reference to the closing price of the day plus reference to a basket of currencies". In the context of the strong dollar, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is the result of a market behavior.

Liu Dongliang, senior analyst at Asset Management Department of China Merchants Bank, told reporters that the yuan will depreciate, but he said "it is hard to say where the depreciation is."

Liu Jian believes that although the RMB is facing devaluation pressure, the market does not think it is like the unilateral depreciation state at the beginning of last year and the end of last year. It can be said to be a two-way fluctuation. "The US dollar index can not continue to be strong, and there will be a concussion in the future.

Liu Jian also said, "today (July 12th), the spot rate of the RMB against the US dollar is below the middle point of most of the time, which means that there is still some strength for foreign exchange settlement.

The US dollar index is now 96.16. As of now, there has been a depreciation of 0.4%. The central parity of RMB against the US dollar will have a 0.2% appreciation tomorrow.

He believes that the RMB may continue to face downward pressure, but in the short term, the exchange rate of the US dollar to 7 will not be enough.

Exchange rate marketization reform or near completion

For the recent devaluation of the renminbi, the central bank issued a special commentator on China's currency network last week, saying that the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate index is related to the base period factors.

The RMB exchange rate index (CFETS) was set at the base period of the end of 12 month of 2014, which was set at 100.

At that time, the intermediate price of the RMB against the US dollar was 35.2% higher than that of the foreign exchange reform in 2005. The RMB exchange rate is at a high level, which does not reflect the true equilibrium level, and a certain callback is normal.

But in the long term, the stability of the RMB exchange rate index is obviously improved.

Zhao Qingming, chief economist of China Financial Futures Exchange, told reporters before. "The long-term change of exchange rate depends on economic fundamentals, not short-term events.

The price of the renminbi depends on the basket of currencies, not on a single currency.

The RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate in the near future, but foreign exchange reserve increased unexpectedly in June.

Kyushu securities global chief economist Deng Haiqing pointed out that this reflects the central bank no longer normal intervention in the market.

He believes that from the two aspects of the pricing mechanism of the RMB intermediate price and the withdrawal from the foreign exchange market intervention, it may mean that the Central Bank of China has quietly completed the marketization reform of the exchange rate.

Guotai Junan research report also pointed out that since May, there have been two changes in the RMB: first, the risk of exchange rate depreciation does not seem to have formed a cross market "contagion effect". Two, the sensitivity of capital flows to short-term devaluation has dropped sharply.

These two changes are still continuing, implying that the tolerance of the central bank and the market to exchange rate volatility has been significantly improved, which is a positive sign of "exchange rate marketization".