The Arrival Of The Traditional Textile Industry In The Off-Season Is Not Bad In The Off-Season.

July domestic

The industry's traditional off-season is coming, and spot resources in 2015/16 are depleted.

By Zheng cotton futures,

The impact of the sharp rise in the auction price, the recent domestic market rally, cotton prices mainstream prices refreshed, especially in the support of high-quality cotton gap, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton has exceeded 15000 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of May rose 1500 yuan / ton, or 12%.

Although the fundamentals of market supply and demand have not improved significantly, the high turnover rate, strong cotton futures and the supply gap in the new year have all become the "pushing hands" of the market.

From February Zheng cotton low point to 10000 yuan to April's 8 days, 4 daily limit plates, the sluggish cotton market has been pushed to the cusp of the storm again. The significant increase of Zheng cotton's "pushing hands" on the spot market is obvious. In June, the "slow ox market" in the first half of the month is more obvious. Although the spot volume is low, the overall paction price of the national reserve high is strong and strong, but the cotton price in the off-season needs no basis for expansion. In the long and short game, the price of the cotton price shocks at the end of June deepens. Especially in July, the RMB devaluation expectation, the national dumping policy "hunger marketing", the weather factors and so on are all flooded with various kinds of interests, which is a great contrast with the spot market demand.

From the perspective of national cotton reserves, since the launch of the national cotton store in May 3rd, the market has been running at a high level. In May, the national cotton store kept a high turnover rate of over 97%, and by the end of May, 300 thousand tons of imported cotton had been put into operation.

Since June, all the national cotton reserves have been put into domestic cotton, and the volume and paction price of the national cotton store also show some fluctuations, but the turnover is still at a high level. As of July 11th, the cumulative reserve plan for the 2015/2016 cotton warehouse was 1 million 240 thousand and 400 tons, with a total turnover of 1 million 214 thousand tons, with a turnover rate of 97.87%, of which the total domestic cotton turnover was 917 thousand and 700 tons, with a turnover rate of 97.78%. The total import cotton turnover was 296 thousand and 300 tons, with a turnover rate of 98.16%, and the cumulative paction average length was 28.3mm. The average price of the imported cotton was 12479 yuan / ton, with a total turnover of 776.

From the number of rounds to calculate, the initial export volume of the national cotton reserves can basically guarantee the level of 30 thousand tons per day, but with the elimination of problems such as outgoing and public inspection, the external volume has been reduced. Up to now, the average daily volume is about 24 thousand.

From the sales base price of national cotton reserves, only two weeks of the bottom price has slightly reduced, the current (eleventh weeks) National Reserve sales base price rose to 13053 yuan / ton, the price difference between the first week and the start of 1032 yuan / ton, and quality resources increased significantly, the highest increase of 4400 yuan / ton, the actual paction price reached 14143 yuan / ton.

Under the current traditional off-season, the terminal spinning enterprise funds and finished product inventory sales are slow to restrict the competition of textile enterprises. At present, the participation of traders is relatively high.

According to the author's understanding, with the price of raw materials rising, the profits of textile enterprises showed a significant decline. A 50 thousand cotton spinning mill in Henan showed that the spot price quotas of cotton increased significantly in the 2015/16 cotton market. The spinning of C21S, C32S and C40S yarn had not only lost profits but had a loss of 500-1000 yuan / ton. In order to complete the order, the spinning enterprises could only increase the price to compete for the national cotton stores from the traders. If the stock prices were low, the textile enterprises would follow the pull up, but the stock was slightly higher than that of the cotton enterprises.

Entering the year July, the new cotton sales in China basically ended in 2015-16, and overseas cotton storage basically became the only channel for domestic cotton resources supply. According to the projections, a large number of Xinjiang cotton to the mainland market generally had to be around November, and the dumping and storage basically ended at the end of August. There will be a blank period of 2-3 months in the middle, and the spinning enterprises are ready to complete the corresponding inventory in the current dumping stage. The current overall reserve demand is not enough, and the early traders are all running low inventory, and there are replenishment operations demand in the market.

It is expected that in the short term, the heat of market reserve cotton will not be reduced, and the volume of trading will continue to run at a high level. The basis of high position of lint cash is still in operation.

Based on the supply gap caused by the decline of planting area and weather factors in the new year, the new year opening pattern is more obvious, and the new cotton 14500-15000 yuan / ton interval is expected to be oscillating.