PTA Futures Prices Show A Sharp Downward Trend.

After a sharp rise on Monday, it fell for four consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of 5.86%.

The first two trading days of this week, though rising, are still strong at 4690 yuan / tonne.

Next, we will analyze the price trend of late PTA from the perspective of position.

First,

A big reason for the weak trend of futures prices is the suppression of huge registered warehouse receipts.

As of July 12th, the number of registered warehouse receipts for PTA futures of Zhengshang was 185845, an increase of 7650 compared with the end of June.

If 18537 effective forecasts are added, the potential deliveries will reach 204382, or 1021910 tons.

At present, the domestic PTA capacity is roughly 50 million tons / year, eliminating the capacity of the long term shutdown of the Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company and the bankrupt Far East Petrochemical Company, with an actual capacity of only 40 million tons.

According to the current operating load of 70%, the output per month is roughly 2 million tons.

The volume of registered warehouse receipts represents almost half a month's output in the country.

Under the premise of severe supply surplus,

Up to a certain height, there will be industrial funds to enter the futures market for delivery.

Therefore, I believe that before the warehouse receipts are largely digested, the price of PTA futures is difficult to make.

Second, from the point of view of volume warehouse, the main shift is slow.

As of July 12th, the position of PTA's main 1609 contract was 1197674, compared with 52518 at the end of June, a decrease of 4.20%.

It was 2 billion 800 million yuan, down 215 million yuan from the end of June, a decrease of 7.14%.

Recently, the price of PTA futures has declined, and the positions have been shrinking slightly. The net outflow of funds is a normal phenomenon.

However, it should be noted that in two months, the 1609 contract is facing a delivery problem.

According to past experience, the September contract will be completed in mid 7 months.

By this standard, the current 1609 contracts are slower than others, indicating that more and more games are fierce.

With the passage of time, there is still no large-scale shift of contracts in the latter part of September. Under the suppression of warehouse receipts, bulls will be forced to liquidate their futures and futures prices will also be reduced.

Third, from the perspective of the structure of positions, the main force of the short bear a clear advantage.

As of July 12th, the 20 seats in the first half of the short positions were held at 675286 positions, holding 131608 hands long.

The empty head holds the advantage that the current PTA futures are more concentrated.

To sum up, although the PTA1609 contract is close to delivery, it still maintains a high position. Taking into account the large number of registered warehouse receipts and short strength, PTA futures price is hard to form an effective rise.