Domestic PTA Market Continued To Rise Pattern Was Ended

In the first half of 2016, the domestic PTA spot trend moved ahead, and the market rebounded again in June. During the first half of the year, PTA itself changed little. Its price mostly changed with the changes of international crude oil and bulk commodity market.

In the first half of 2016, the domestic PTA market fluctuated little. During the period, the small rebate came from the influence of capital side. In the second half of the year, PTA still faced many pressures.

Therefore, on the whole, the PTA market in the second half of the year will remain weak. But in the medium and long term, the domestic PTA market still faces greater risks, and there are still many uncertainties.

After the new year's day, because of the disillusionment of Saudi Arabia and Iran in the post conflict market, the price of crude oil has been falling and the lowest level has been refreshed in twelve years. As a result, the domestic PTA spot has dropped synchronously, and the lowest paction price in the month has fallen below the historical low point of 4100 yuan / ton price. In addition, as the Spring Festival draws near, the polyester operation rate of the lower reaches of the new year is declining, and the demand side is also a drag on it.

And before the Spring Festival, the demand is down, and worries continue to pressure oil prices. The doubts about the reduction of production have added to the PTA's downward trend. Besides, the industry has been delisting and low demand dominates the market. The focus of the PTA market is weak before the holiday.

After the holiday, OPEC production rumors again diffuse the market, but then the hope of a reduction in production has led to the oversupply of difficult situation, but domestic PTA in cost support and futures.

Under the strong market, the focus of the market is stable and strong.

At the end of the first quarter, under the influence of peripheral macro policies, crude oil and capital side, the domestic PTA spot market trend was more twists and turns. At the same time, due to focusing on the oil exporting countries (OPEC) frozen production plan and China's accident reduction, it effectively stimulated market risk preference, PTA futures trading and spot trading rose sharply. Then, due to the sharp decline in import and export data, the market worried about the sustainability of China's crude oil demand, and the pressure of oil prices fell. In addition, the differences between the frozen production agreements and the high inventory prices also kept oil prices under pressure, which ended the pattern of domestic PTA market continued to rise.

In the two quarter, the Doha Conference on frozen production is beginning to dawn, and international crude oil has risen.

The market, then the freeze production agreement aborted, the oil price market weakens slightly, but at the same time, because of the Kuwait factory strike, the oil price decline has narrowed down. Most of the PTA market is watching. As the market gradually digested the bad profits brought by the Doha talks, and at this stage, the strong performance of commodities and the continuous rise of cotton futures and other factors, the PTA market continued to strengthen.

Followed by the continuous decline of crude oil production, oil prices rose three times, this is boosted, raw material PTA futures are strong, and its spot market is rising simultaneously, but polyester products are not improving vigorously.

At the end of the two quarter, the international crude oil closed up slightly, and at the same time, driven by the overall market atmosphere, the PTA price rebounded. On the other 3, the market G20 G20's list of industrial enterprises in the area was spread, and the market promoted the price of the PTA by speculation.

However, the downstream demand wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the overall turnover is not good. The PTA market is stable in the wake of the Dragon Boat Festival. The current market lacks solid support for the fundamentals. The overall wait-and-see mentality is strong. Then the crude oil continues to fall and the market mentality is pessimistic. But as a result of the shutdown of Jiangyin Hon bang and other devices, the support for the market is still available. Some pet factory's inquiry is still available, the core of the international crude oil is down, and the PTA market is running down.

From the perspective of raw materials, Asia in the second half of 2016

There is no big market. On the one hand, the oversupply of PTA is obvious, and the demand for PX is maintained just now. During the period of G20, the terminal parking capacity is more than the upstream, so the demand will not be as good as the first half.

On the other hand, because PX-PTA basically takes the form of contract, the volume of imports will not decrease in the second half of the year.

Although China has no new PX capacity in the second half of the year, a 2 million 200 thousand ton / year PX plant in India is planned to go into operation by the end of the year to suppress market sentiment.

However, the market also has certain support. In the past year, the "golden nine silver ten" peak season is characterized by a dull feature. This year, the opportunity for speculation may be larger. Therefore, it is expected that the PX market will maintain a concussion pattern in the second half of 2016.

From the point of view of supply and demand, the domestic PTA installations started to be relatively high in the first half of the year. Apart from a few sets of long term parking devices in the country, the load of other devices was running high, and the supply was quite adequate. The supply of the market in the second half of the year was still under heavy pressure.

And demand side, because the polyester load is still 82.6% high, under the high pressure of polyester stocks, polyester load is further limited.

As the weather turns hot, the beverage industry and the textile industry will soon enter the seasonal off-season. Before the G20 summit, Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile printing and dyeing enterprises have entered the stage of limited production in 6-8 months. The demand for terminal textile will continue to weaken, which will further drag the polyester market, and the possibility of weakening polyester load is greater.